REVOLUTIONARY NETWORKS? AN ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN IN TERRORIST GROUPS by Bradley J. McAllister (Under the Direction of Sherry Lowrance) ABSTRACT This dissertation is simultaneously an exercise in theory testing and theory generation. Firstly, it is an empirical test of the means-oriented netwar theory, which asserts that distributed networks represent superior organizational designs for violent activists than do classic hierarchies. Secondly, this piece uses the ends-oriented theory of revolutionary terror to generate an alternative means-oriented theory of terrorist organization, which emphasizes the need of terrorist groups to centralize their operations. By focusing on the ends of terrorism, this study is able to generate a series of metrics of organizational performance against which the competing theories of organizational design can be measured. The findings show that terrorist groups that decentralize their operations continually lose ground, not only to government counter-terror and counter-insurgent campaigns, but also to rival organizations that are better able to take advantage of their respective operational environments. However, evidence also suggests that groups facing decline due to decentralization can offset their inability to perform complex tasks by emphasizing the material benefits of radical activism. INDEX WORDS: Terrorism, Organized Crime, Counter-Terrorism, Counter-Insurgency, Networks, Netwar, Revolution, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Mahdi Army, Abu Sayyaf, Iraq, Philippines REVOLUTIONARY NETWORK0S? AN ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN IN TERRORIST GROUPS by BRADLEY J MCALLISTER B.A., Southwestern University, 1999 M.A., The University of Leeds, United Kingdom, 2003 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSPHY ATHENS, GA 2011 2011 Bradley J. McAllister All Rights Reserved REVOLUTIONARY NETWORKS? AN ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN IN TERRORIST GROUPS by Bradley J. McAllister Major Professor: Sherry Lowrance Committee: Howard Wiarda Jeffrey Berejikian Michael Boyle Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia May 2011 DEDICATION To my beloved wife, Carrell Weeks McAllister, whose emotional support struck the perfect balance between productive encouragement and thinly veiled impatience, and whose material support made possible this whole process. Above all, you make me want to achieve. I love you. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Above all I would like to thank the faculty members who agreed to guide this project: Dr. Sherry Lowrance, Dr. Michael Boyle, Dr. Jeffrey Berejikian, and Professor Howard Wiarda. In addition, I would like to thank all my wonderful colleagues at the University of St Andrews: Dr. Peter Lehr, Dr. Rashmi Singh, Professor Paul Wilkinson, Orla Lynch, and Gillian Duncan. I would like to especially thank Professor Alex Schmid for giving me the opportunity to work with such excellent colleagues. Finally, I would like to thank my parents, Lee and Sharon Schilling whose support over the years has meant the world. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................1 1.1 Research Question..........................................................................................................2 1.2 Problems with the Literature...........................................................................................3 1.3 Expected Findings..........................................................................................................3 1.4 Theories of Terrorism and Political Violence..................................................................5 1.5 Theoretical Argument...................................................................................................11 1.6 Research Design...........................................................................................................12 1.7 Chapter Plan.................................................................................................................14 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................15 2.1 Theoretical Arguments.................................................................................................15 2.2 Chapter Outline............................................................................................................19 2.3 Theories of Terrorism and Political Violence................................................................19 2.4 Core Assumptions of Netwar........................................................................................50 2.5 Core Assumptions of the New Terrorism......................................................................52 2.6 Arguments to be Tested................................................................................................54 2.7 Literature Critique........................................................................................................55 vi 2.8 Theoretical Arguments.................................................................................................63 2.9 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................66 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY........................................................................................69 3.1 Hypotheses...................................................................................................................69 3.2 Methodology................................................................................................................76 3.3 Case Study Choices......................................................................................................76 3.4 Institutional Mechanisms for Managing Successful Revolutionary Organizations.........78 3.5 Dependent Variables: Metrics of Organizational Success .............................................80 3.6 Case Study Organization ..............................................................................................83 CHAPTER 4 JAIYSH AL-MAHDI ....................................................................................85 4.1 Organizational Background..........................................................................................86 4.2 Constituencies..............................................................................................................99 4.3 Government Counter Terror Operations .....................................................................105 4.4 Rival Organizations....................................................................................................113 4.5 Operational History....................................................................................................126 4.6 Analysis of Shifts in Organizational Design ...............................................................162 CHAPTER 5 AL-QAEDA IN IRAQ.................................................................................176 5.1 Organizational Background........................................................................................178 5.2 Constituencies............................................................................................................205 5.3 Government Counter Terror Operations .....................................................................209 5.4 Rival Organizations....................................................................................................217 5.5 Operational History....................................................................................................231 5.6 Analysis of Organizational Design .............................................................................258 vii CHAPTER 6 THE ABU SAYYAF GROUP.....................................................................263 6.1 Organizational Background........................................................................................264 6.2 Constituencies............................................................................................................293 6.3 Government Counter-Terror Operations.....................................................................295 6.4 Rival Organizations....................................................................................................301 6.5 Operational History....................................................................................................308 6.6 Analysis of Organizational Design .............................................................................324 CHAPTER 7 ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION..............................................................326 7.1 Institutional Mechanisms for Managing Successful Terrorist Organizations ...............326 7.2 Comparative Analysis of Organizational Performance................................................340 7.3 Conclusion .................................................................................................................365