Malaysia | August 23, 2021 Key Metrics Malaysia Daybreak | 23 August 2021 FBMKLCI Index 1,700 ▌What’s on the Table… 1,650 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 1,600 1,550 Strategy Note – UMNO reclaims the Prime Minister post 1,500 Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri from UMNO was picked as the 9th Prime Minister of 1,450 Malaysia He holds a slim majority in parliament and is likely to face a “vote of 1,400 confidence”. Neutral on this news as his appointment reflects continuity of most Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 policies. ——————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Carlsberg Brewery (M) – Better days ahead from 4Q21F onwards 1,518.03 3.08pts 0.20% 1H21 net profit of RM112m (+24% yoy) was below expectations, as we expect AUG Future SEP Future 1516.5 - (0.36%) 1505 - (0.37%) weaker qoq results in 3Q21F due to prolonged closure of operations. In our view, ——————————————————————————— the worst is over for CAB, as we expect better beer demand with higher Gainers Losers Unchanged vaccination rates and gradual lifting of lockdown measures. Upgrade to Add from 491 415 473 ——————————————————————————— Hold. Our DCF-based TP is raised to RM24.70. Turnover Yinson Holdings Bhd – Looking beyond the FPSO PDB cancellation 3676.22m shares / RM1888.128m 3m avg volume traded 5268.52m shares Yinson has lost the golden opportunity for the FPSO PDB charter for the second 3m avg value traded RM3084.77m ——————————————————————————— time running; it was the only bidder on both occasions. This bad news plus the Regional Indices upcoming loss of shariah status by Nov may pressure the share price but we FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI reiterate Add and our SOP-based TP of RM6.18. This is because the FPSO bid 1,518 3,103 6,031 1,553 24,850 pipeline appears healthy and Yinson stands a decent chance of securing other ———————————————————————————————— charter deals. Market Indices Close % chg YTD % chg InNature Bhd – 2Q21: hit by tougher movement restrictions FBMKLCI 1,518.03 0.2 (6.7) FBM100 10,820.64 0.3 (5.9) 1HFY21 core net profit of RM6.5m came in below expectations, mainly due to FBMSC 15,474.20 0.6 (0.6) FBMMES 7,146.36 0.5 (33.4) movement restrictions across all of its operating markets in 2QFY21. We project Dow Jones 35,120.08 0.6 14.7 a gradual recovery in 3QFY21 as the economy reopens after strict lockdown NASDAQ 14,714.66 1.2 14.2 FSSTI 3,102.75 0.5 9.1 measures, in line with a rise in vaccination rates in Malaysia. We think the FTSE-100 7,087.90 0.4 9.7 recovery looks priced in at this juncture. Downgrade to Hold with lower TP of SENSEX 55,329.32 (0.5) 15.9 Hang Seng 24,849.72 (1.8) (8.7) RM0.74 (18x CY22F P/E). JCI 6,030.77 0.6 0.9 KOSPI 3,060.51 (1.2) 6.5 Malakoff Corporation – Solid 2Q21 performance Nikkei 225 27,013.25 (1.0) (1.6) PCOMP 6,633.22 (1.3) (7.1) Malakoff’s 1HFY21 core net profit was above expectations due to SET 1,553.18 0.6 7.2 Shanghai 3,427.33 (1.1) (1.3) higher-than-expected margin and contributions from associates/JV. A higher Taiwan 16,341.94 (0.2) 10.9 interim DPS of 3.1 sen was proposed in 1H21 vs. 2.8 sen in 1H20. Reiterate Add ———————————————————————————————— Top Actives given the better earnings outlook and decent dividend yield. Close % chg Vol. (m) KNM GROUP 0.230 7.0 236.7 Berjaya Sports Toto – 4Q in line; earnings to improve from 2QFY22 ADV SYNERGY 0.190 11.8 217.9 AVILLION 0.180 (10.0) 136.2 4QFY6/21 core EPS was in line with our estimate but the nil DPS was not. We KANGER 0.060 9.1 98.7 see FY22F core EPS falling 13% (FMCO) before recovering thereafter. Retain DESTINI 0.210 16.7 81.6 DAGANG NEXCHANGE 0.735 (0.7) 70.8 Add, with a slightly lower DCF-based target price of RM2.20. TFP SOLUTIONS 0.220 4.8 70.3 FITTERS 0.335 (9.5) 62.5 Pharmaniaga Bhd – 2Q21: Maiden Covid-19 vaccine contribution ———————————————————————————————— Economic Statistics 1HFY21 core net profit of RM38.0m came in within expectations. Its core Close % chg business remained robust despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. 2QFY21 US$/Euro 1.1693 (0.09) RM/US$ (Spot) 4.2390 (0.02) saw the maiden Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine sales contribution to the MOH, leading RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 4.2900 (0.30) to a sharp rise in manufacturing segment external sales. We project stronger OPR (%) 1.75 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,778.48 (0.15) contribution in 3QFY21 as private sector vaccine sales kick in. Reiterate Add with WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 62.32 (2.15) unchanged TP of RM1.06 (23x CY22F P/E). CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 4,565.00 0.26 ———————————————————————————————————————— Autos – Back on recovery path in July Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA T (60) 3 2261 9073 E [email protected] ▌News of the Day… ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Show Style "View Doc Map" • Agong names Ismail Sabri as Malaysia’s ninth Prime Minister • Pharmaniaga seeks MoH’s approval to jab adolescents with Sinovac • Tiong Nam signs lease for warehouse in Johor's Senai Airport City • Advancecon inks agreement with TNB to build and operate solar PV facility • Hubline, MISC unit seek port management and marine service collaborations IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Malaysia Daybreak | August 23, 2021 Global Economic News The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to recommend to the White House reducing federal biofuel blending mandates for 2021 to below 2020 levels in what would be a blow to the biofuels industry, two sources familiar with the matter said on Friday. The EPA also is expected to make a separate recommendation to boost the blending mandates for 2022 above the previous two years, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. In the short term, the agency is looking to lower the amount of biofuels that refiners are required to blend into the U.S. fuel pool because the COVID-19 pandemic has sapped fuel demand. The move could be a risk for President Joe Biden's administration, as some could view it as favoring oil refiners over the lower-carbon biofuels industry even as the administration presses companies to reduce emissions. The EPA is expected to propose the 2021 and 2022 mandates at the same time, the two sources said. The proposals could change during a formal interagency review process. The EPA declined to comment on the matter. (Reuters) China left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on 20 Aug for the 16th consecutive month but that did little to dampen expectations authorities will boost stimulus to counter a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.85% and five-year LPR at 4.65%. (Reuters) India has cut import taxes on crude and refined soyoil and sunflower oil by 7.5%, according to a government order, as part of efforts to keep a lid on prices. India is the world's biggest vegetable oil importer and spends an average of US$8.50-US$10bn annually on edible oil imports. The country produces less than half of the roughly 24m tonnes of edible oil that it consumes annually. It imports the rest, buying palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, soyoil from Brazil and Argentina, and sunflower oil, mainly from Russia and Ukraine. (Reuters) Malaysia Economic News Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) international reserves rose to US$111.3bn as at 13 Aug 2021 from US$111.1bn as at 30 Jul 2021. In a statement, the central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.2 times total short-term external debt. (Bernama) The involvement of private general practitioners (GPs) in administering Covid-19 vaccinations is based on current needs to ensure continuity of the National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK). The Covid-19 Immunisation Task Force (CITF) said in a statement, the operation to boost vaccination capacity that sought to control the Covid-19 outbreak in relevant areas was carried out from 26 Jul to 1 Aug, which had led to its decision to reduce the number of vaccination centres (PPVs) in Klang Valley, including the participation of GPs. (Bernama) Malaysia has received 200,000 doses of the CanSino Covid-19 vaccine, the first delivery out of 3.5m doses ordered from CanSino Biologics. (The Edge Markets) The government will focus on achieving two main objectives in an effort to revive the country's economy, including restoring the well-being of the people in line with efforts to increase consumer purchasing power. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob said in an effort to reduce the long-term economic impact of Covid-19, the government would also focus on reviving the private sector as a driver of economic growth. (Bernama) 2 Malaysia Daybreak | August 23, 2021 Health Director General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah has clarified that he is not the one behind the decision to stop private clinics from administering Covid-19 vaccines.