Impacts of Small-Scale irrigation in Niger Ex-ante analysis of micro- economic effects using a farm household model Tillie, P., Louhichi, K. and Gomez-Y-Paloma, S. 2020 EUR 29836 EN This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Pascal Tillie Address: Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilosa 3, 41092 Seville, Spain Email: [email protected] Tel.: +34 954 48 82 52 EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC115744 EUR 29836 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-17942-9 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/283 Print ISBN 978-92-76-17943-6 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/062188 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020, except pictures: page 1, Tadis valley - Tahoua, 2015, Sergio Gomez-Y-Paloma and pictures pages 15-16, various places in Niger, 2016, Pascal Tillie. How to cite this report: Tillie, P., Louhichi, K. and Gomez-Y-Paloma, S., Impacts of Small-Scale Irrigation in Niger: Ex-ante analysis of micro-economic effects using a farm household model, EUR 29836 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-17942-9, doi:10.2760/283, JRC115744. IMPACTS OF SMALL-SCALE IRRIGATION IN NIGER Ex-ante analysis of micro- economic effects using a farm household model TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 8 Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2 Agricultural development and small-scale irrigation in Niger .................................... 13 2.1 Opportunities and constraints of small-scale irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa ..................... 13 2.2 Small-scale irrigation in Niger ............................................................................................................................... 13 3 Study methodology: FSSIM-Dev data and model .............................................................. 19 3.1 Modelling agricultural policies to better inform decision-makers .................................................. 19 3.2 Data used ........................................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.3 Scenario for the ex-ante analysis of the impacts of small-scale irrigation on Nigerien households .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 4 Results: Effects of SPIN on farm households ..................................................................... 27 4.1 Effects on agricultural production ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Economic impacts of implementing SPIN ...................................................................................................... 34 4.3 Impact of implementing SPIN on poverty and food security ............................................................. 39 5 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. 43 List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 45 List of boxes ............................................................................................................................................. 46 List of figures .......................................................................................................................................... 47 List of tables ............................................................................................................................................ 48 Abstract In Niger, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy is to promote the development of small-scale irrigation infrastructure in order to diversify agricultural production, extend the growing season, increase land productivity and secure farmers’ incomes. Small-scale irrigation is regarded as a possible alternative to large- scale collective schemes because it is cheaper to set up and maintain and easier to manage. This report presents the results of modelling the impacts of a small-scale irrigation development programme, known as the Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy in Niger, or SPIN for its acronym in French), in terms of land use, agricultural production, income generation and poverty reduction. This analysis was conducted using the FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) model and data obtained from a representative national sample of farm households. FSSIM-Dev is a comparative static model using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach tailored to producer-consumer households and to the particular aspects of the sub-Saharan rural economy. Applied to each farm household included in a representative sample for Niger, FSSIM-Dev allows for capturing all the heterogeneous impacts of a development programme such as the SPIN. The modelling results show that increasing the irrigated area in the dry season by 47,000 hectares, i.e. 44%, which is in line with the SPIN objectives, would bring significant benefits to Nigerien farm households. The average farm income would increase by 12% and income inequalities between households in rural areas would reduce by around five Gini points, i.e. approximately 9%. Increasing the irrigated area would also create many new jobs and reduce the rural poverty rate by more than one point (from 52.4% to 50.8%). The estimated cost of such a programme would be between 47 billion CFA francs and 189 billion CFA francs, to be split between farmers and the State. Impacts of Small-Scale Irrigation in Niger 7 Acknowledgements The authors must firstly thank the officials from the Delegation of the European Union to the Republic of Niger, in particular Beatrice Bussi, Nicoletta Avella, Enrique De Loma-Ossorio Friend, Assoumane Oumarou and Moussa Bouda, for their unfailing support in the research process initiated by the JRC in Niger in 2015, for their advice and for sharing their useful contacts. The authors also thank the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Ministère de l’Agriculture et de l’Elevage – MAGEL) for its welcome, its support of the project from the start, and all the information exchanged on agriculture and livestock in Niger. We particularly thank Mr Boukari Diamoitou and Mr Illiassou Boubacar for their commitment to the success of this research project, as well as Mr Amadou Moussa from the Rural Engineering Directorate (Direction du Génie Rural), Mr Bachir Ousseini from the SPIN Permanent Secretariat (Secrétariat Permanent de la SPIN) and Mr Idrissa Younoussa from the Water Mobilisation Directorate (Direction de la Mobilisation des eaux). We are also grateful to Mrs Ouma Katouma Bizo and Dr Haido Abdoul Malik for having accompanied us on our field visits. We also thank the officials from the National Statistics Institute (Institut National de la Statistique) for their assistance in preparing and interpreting the LSMS-ISA (Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture) data, in particular Mr Oumarou Zakari