1 2 3 NOAA OCEAN AND GREAT LAKES ACIDIFICATION 4 RESEARCH PLAN 2020-2029 5 6 7 8 Coordinating Editors 9 Elizabeth Jewett (OAR/Ocean Acidification Program) 10 Emily Osborne (OAR/ Ocean Acidification Program) 11 Rik Wanninkhof (OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) 12 Benjamin DeAngelo (OAR/Climate Program Office) 13 Krisa Arzayus (NOS/U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Office) 14 Kenric Osgood (NMFS/Office of Science and Technology) 15 16 17 18 Front cover photo: TBD 19 20 Acknowledgements 21 DRAFT PLACEHOLDER TEXT: We acknowledge the ## members of the NOAA Ocean and 22 Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan writing team for the considerable thought and effort 23 developing this strategic document. Coordinating Editor credit/external review/LO review 24 thanks/graphic designer and copyediting and formatting thanks. 25 26 Recommended Citation: 27 Jewett, E., E. Osborne, R. Wanninkhof, B. DeAngelo, K. Arzayus, K. Osgood, Eds., 2020. 28 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan 2020-2029. U.S. Dept. of 29 Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum [insert final publication details here]. 30 31 32 33 January 2020 34 35 U.S. Department of Commerce 36 Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Secretary 37 38 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 39 Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., Acting NOAA Administrator 1 40 Contents 41 42 Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………….....3 43 Introduction………...…………………………………………………………………...……4 44 • Motivation for NOAA’s Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan 45 • NOAA’s OA Research Mission 46 • The OA Research Plan Framework and Themes 47 1. National Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research:……………………………....14 48 2. Open Ocean Acidification Research: ………………………………………..……………24 49 3. Alaska Region Acidification Research: …………………………………………………...37 50 4. Arctic Region Acidification Research: ………………………………..……………..……46 51 5. West Coast Region Acidification Research: ………………………………….…………..56 52 6. Pacific Islands Region Acidification Research: …………………………………………..71 53 7. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Acidification Research ……………..…82 54 8. Caribbean and the Florida Keys Region Acidification Research………………….…….93 55 9. Mid-Atlantic Bight Region Acidification Research ………………………………….…102 56 10. New England Region Acidification Research ………………………………….………..112 57 11. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research……………………………………..………125 58 References………………………………………………………………………...……..…135 59 2 60 Executive Summary 61 Ocean acidification (OA), driven predominantly by ocean uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide 62 (CO2), is resulting in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry with predictions of broad scale 63 ecosystem impacts. Coastal acidification, which refers to the pH decline resulting not only from 64 atmospheric CO2 and organic matter breakdown but also coastal inputs such as runoff, atmospheric 65 pollution and freshwater sources, is recognized as the coastal manifestation of OA. Acidification 66 in the Great Lakes is projected to decline at a rate similar to that of the oceans as a result of 67 increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that may also be enhanced by regional air quality and 68 acid deposition via precipitation. Acidification of the open-ocean, coasts and Great Lakes 69 continues to raise concerns across the scientific, resource management and coastal communities 70 as to the ecological impacts and resulting social and economic effects. 71 In response to legislative drivers and scientific concerns, NOAA’s OA mission is to understand 72 and predict changes in Earth’s environment as a consequence of continued acidification of the 73 oceans and Great Lakes; conserve and manage marine organisms and ecosystems in response to 74 such changes; and to share that knowledge and information with others. The principle piece of 75 U.S. Federal OA legislation, the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring 76 (FOARAM) Act of 2009, requires that NOAA has an OA monitoring and research program to 77 determine the potential consequences for marine organisms and ecosystems; to assess the regional 78 and national ecosystems and socioeconomic impacts; and to identify adaptation strategies and 79 techniques for conserving marine ecosystems. 80 The 2010 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan has guided OA research at 81 the agency over the last decade and provides a framework for the updated research plan. The 2020- 82 2029 Research Plan builds upon accomplishments made and responds to newly emerging 83 requirements. In coordination with international, interagency and external academic and industry 84 research partners, the present NOAA OA Research Plan aims to support science that produces 85 well-integrated and relevant research results, tools and products for stakeholders. 86 Consistent with the FOARAM Act of 2009 and NOAA’s mission, the Research Plan is framed 87 around three research themes; 88 (1) Document and predict environmental change via monitoring, analysis and modeling; 89 (2) Characterize and predict biological sensitivity of species and ecosystems; and 90 (3) Understand human dimensions and socioeconomic impacts. 91 These research themes can collectively be used to understand, predict and reduce vulnerability to 92 OA. Environmental change research and monitoring is critical to documenting OA and collecting 93 data that can be used to understand responses and enhance predictive capabilities. Enhancing the 94 understanding of biological sensitivity is foundational to characterizing species and ecosystem 95 response, as well as adaptive capacity, which are both integral to developing ecosystem models 3 96 and management practices. Elucidating the human impacts of OA requires translating and 97 synthesizing physical environmental change and biological sensitivity knowledge to study the 98 implications of OA and vulnerability of human communities and economies to OA. 99 The Research Plan includes regional chapters which encompass the coastal zones around the U.S. 100 and its territories and the Great Lakes, an Open Ocean chapter focusing on deep ocean regions 101 extending beyond the continental shelf and a National chapter. The National chapter draws upon 102 the regional and open-ocean needs to present high-level, collectively relevant research objectives. 103 Each chapter is framed around the research themes (environmental change, biological sensitivity 104 and human dimensions). NOAA’s OA research goals are to: 105 106 (1) Advance OA observing systems, modeling, technologies and data stewardship to improve 107 the understanding and predictive capability of OA trends and processes; 108 (2) Enhance understanding and prediction of OA as a stressor co-occurring with other 109 prominent ocean and Great Lakes changes; 110 (3) Improve understanding of the biological response and adaptive capacity of ecologically 111 and economically important species, ecosystems, and communities; and 112 (4) Increase research to understand the vulnerability of communities and stakeholders to OA 113 and to generate useful data that supports adaptation and resilience plans. 114 115 Implementation of the Research Plan will require continued collaboration across the agency and 116 with interagency and international partners, including the Interagency Working Group on Ocean 117 Acidification (IWG-OA) and the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON). In 118 addition to internal research capacity at NOAA’s laboratories, science centers, regional IOOS 119 associations and cooperative institutes, extramural support for academic, non-governmental and 120 industry research partners will enhance NOAA’s capacity for conducting cutting edge research. 121 This Research Plan also articulates the cross-cutting importance of data management, stewardship 122 and archival with the goal of ensuring OA data is findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. 123 Data synthesis efforts laid out in the plan ensure that scientific data are more widely utilized and 124 transitioned into useful products that will increase education, awareness and preparedness of U.S. 125 citizens to ocean, coastal and Great Lakes acidification. 126 4 127 Introduction 128 Emily B. Osborne1, Elizabeth B. Jewett1, Dwight K. Gledhill1, Richard A. Feely2, Kenric 129 Osgood3, Krisa Arzayus4, Rik Wanninkhof5, Shallin Busch1,6, and John Tomczuk1 130 131 1NOAA/OAR, Ocean Acidification Program, Silver Spring, MD 132 2NOAA/OAR, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA 133 3NOAA/NMFS, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD 134 4NOAA/NOS, U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Office, Silver Spring, MD 135 5NOAA/OAR, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL 136 6NOAA/NMFS, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 137 138 Motivation for NOAA’s Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan 139 The uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by the global ocean has resulted in a worldwide 140 phenomenon termed “Ocean Acidification” or OA (e.g., Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Feely et al., 141 2004, 2009; Orr et al., 2005; Figure 1). The ocean has served as an important “sink” for 142 anthropogenic CO2, significantly reducing atmospheric CO2 accumulation (Sabine et al., 2004; 143 Khatiwala et al., 2013; Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2018; Gruber et al., 2019). Acidification also 144 occurs in freshwater systems such as the Great Lakes of the U.S., where pH is projected to 145 decline at a rate similar to the oceans (Philips et al., 2015). OA events have occurred throughout 146