ARMED CONFLICT RISK TRAVEL ADVISORY INDIA & PAKISTAN Contact: +44 ( 0 ) 1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Page 1 ARMED CONFLICT RISK SEVERETRAVEL ADVISORY • 21 FEBRUARY 2019 JAMMU AND KASHMIR (SEVERE) SIGNIFICANT TENSIONS AS FIGHTING CONTINUES IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR REGION KEY EVENTS INDIA: Moderate travel risk PAKISTAN: Moderate travel risk Risk of Conflict: MODERATE India and Pakistan: Both countries are engaging in hostile action with numerous clashes being reported across the LoC. At least one Indian jet is also reported to have been shot down, a day after airstrikes by the Indian Air Force targeted areas in Pakistan. KEY POINTS • Tensions have been escalating since the 14 February terrorist attack in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir State, India, that killed 40 Indian reserve police officers. Airstrikes have been carried out by both sides with at least one Indian aircraft being shot down. • Pakistani and northern Indian airspace was closed to commercial aircraft as a result of the military clashes; resulting in the cancellations of numerous flights, including flights to Afghanistan. • India has both increased its troops’ alertness on the border with Pakistan and stepped up security internally; military personnel are being deployed alongside police in Mumbai in view of the increased tensions on the border. • The US National Security Council has stated that the potential risks associated with further military action by India and Pakistan are unacceptably high SITUATION SUMMARY On 14 February, a convoy of vehicles carrying security personnel on the Jammu Srinagar National Highway was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethpora (near Awantipora) in the Pulwama district, Jammu and Kashmir, India. As a result of the attack 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed, while 35 others were injured. Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed the attack; however, India immediately blamed Pakistan for supporting the group. On the same day of the terror attack, border clashes between India and Pakistan escalated along the Line of Control (LoC). This was further escalated on 26 February when the Indian Air Force conducted airstrikes on what it claimed were terrorist camps inside Pakistani territory. Pakistan has refuted the claim, stating they “chased off” Indian Jets; who jettisoned their ordinance. Also, on 26 February, a drone was shot down in Kutch district of Gujrat – far away from Jammu & Kashmir and the ongoing skirmishes. Thus far, this drone being shot down is the only military engagement outside of the immediate Jammu and Kashmir region. Contact: +44 ( 0 ) 1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Page 2 ARMED CONFLICT RISK Since, on 27 February, the Pakistani military has announced airstrikes against “multiple targets” in Rajouri and Poonch while also claiming to have shot down two Indian aircraft. India has refuted this claim and stated that only one of its aircraft, one of their aging MiG-21s, was missing, while also adding that a Pakistani F-16 was shot down. Pakistan has since also stated that none of their jets have been lost, nor were any F-16s used in combat. The situation now remains tense, Pakistani PM Imran Khan has offered talks to defuse tensions while the Pakistani Civil Aviation Authority has shut down the country’s airspace to civilian aircraft until 23:59 local time on 28 February. The airspace in northern India was also been closed to civilian aircraft; however, it has since reportedly reopened. As to be expected India’s border troops are reportedly on high alert and, additionally, internal security has been increased. Military personnel are being deployed alongside police in Mumbai in view of the increased tensions on the border. SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT While the escalation in tensions has resulted in much media attention, it is highly unlikely at this stage that the conflict will continue to escalate beyond this point. As such, the most immediate concern for travellers in the region is the airspace closure. Pakistan has seen a complete airspace closure, this means that travellers are now left “stranded” in Pakistan until the airspace is reopened. Travellers in northern India will be less affected by any continued airport closure than those in Pakistan as they can, theoretically, travel south to open airports if the airspace restrictions are reimplemented. However, some airports that do remain open have also seen cancellations and travellers should monitor any airline announcements even if they are in New Delhi, or further away from the border. Air Canada announced the cancellation of all flights to Delhi on 27 February; with one aircraft en-route even turning around. Should the tensions continue further cancellations to more airlines are possible tomorrow. For the time being, this means that business plans will be disrupted. However, should the military conflict escalate, and foreign nationals be looking to, or required to, leave the country, there may become difficulties in achieving this. Businesses should account for travellers in both Pakistan and India and monitor the ongoing developments as a precaution over this eventuality. An additional consequence of the closure of the Pakistan airspace is the restricting of flights in and out of Afghanistan. Emirates announced the cancellation of all flight to Pakistan and Afghanistan. A number of other airlines either decided to cancel or were forced to cancel flights to and from Afghanistan due to the closure of Pakistan’s airspace. As the situation stands, Prime Minister Imran Khan has offered talks to India, while both sides have achieved a number of publicity “wins” on the other. It is hoped that the conflict will now start to deescalate, despite the exchanges of fire continuing along the LoC. Neither country is really ready for a full-on conflict, the two countries have a bilateral trade of more than 1 billion USD which has now been halted. Additionally, India has looming elections (which may explain the “hard” stance by Prime Minister Modi) and internal issues to attend to. Pakistan also has economic issues of its own, a reliance on the IMF and the need for “painful” reforms are a priority over a military conflict with its neighbour. However, while the likelihood of a wider conflict is seen as remote at this time, it is important to remember that India operates a “Cold Start” military doctrine. This limited-war strategy involves the various branches of India's military conducting offensive operations as part of unified battlegroups. The doctrine intends to allow India's conventional forces to prevent a nuclear retaliation by Pakistan’s highly capable tactical nuclear weapons arsenal in case of a conflict. Unlike their neighbours, Pakistan does not have a “no first use” doctrine, and they reserve the right to use nuclear weapons, particularly low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, to offset what they see as an economically, politically and militarily stronger India. As such, should India feel threatened, they may decide to employ this cold start doctrine and should Pakistan feel that India may be about to do so, they may resort to even more, desperate measures. However, given the speech by PM Khan on 27 February afternoon, it appears that both sides may now be allowing “better sense to prevail” and moving towards a cooling of tensions. Contact: +44 ( 0 ) 1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Page 3 ARMED CONFLICT RISK SEVERE ARMED CONFLICT RISK SECURITY ADVICE • Business travellers should avoid all travel to the LoC due to ongoing skirmishes and continued shelling by both sides. In-country personnel should avoid all non-essential movement in proximity to the LoC and within the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region, • Companies should ensure that they have contingency measures in place, such as security and evacuation plans, should the conflict escalate, or should the security environment deteriorate rapidly. • Travellers in Pakistan should make arrangements for a possibly prolonged stay; ensure that you have contacted your relevant embassy. • Travellers should defer travel to Pakistan and northern India until airport operations have resumed; contact your relevant airline or airport for further information. • If considering overland travel in both Pakistan and India, ensure that you book a trained driver familiar with the local area through a reputable provider; Solace Global can provide assistance if required. • If travelling to Afghanistan, reconfirm the status of all flights in and out of the country and monitor for updates on the situation in Pakistan. • All travel outside of major cities should be limited to the daylight hours only. Additionally, where possible, security support is advised. • Avoid all travel unless absolutely necessary to Jammu and Kashmir for the time being. • Personnel should stay up to date with the latest information, especially regarding political demonstrations. Consult local media, in-country contacts, especially home government representations, and Solace Secure Alerts for details for the latest updates. Contact: +44 ( 0 ) 1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Page 4 .