COASTAL FLOOD RISK AND TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE IN THE NORTH SEA REGION Results and recommendations of Project Safecoast SYNTHESIS REPORT ERDF Interreg North Sea Region COASTAL FLOOD RISK COASTAL FLOOD RISK AND TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE AND TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE IN THE NORTH SEA REGION IN THE NORTH SEA REGION Results and recommendations of Project Safecoast Results and recommendations of Project Safecoast SYNTHESIS REPORT SYNTHESIS REPORT ERDF Interreg North Sea Region Keeping our feet dry in the North Sea lowlands 1. Introduction Colophon This synthesis report is the final result of Safecoast, a project co-funded under the European Regional Development Fund INTERREG IIIB North Sea Region Programme – A European Community Initiative concerning Transnational Co-operation on Spatial Development 2000-2006 Editors Niels Roode (RWS), Gerrit Baarse (BB&C), John Ash (RPA) and Rocio Salado (RPA) Production Bureau Karin de Lange Design Joke Herstel Printing Zijlstra Drukwerk, Rijswijk Photography/cartography Horst Wirdemann, WSA Emden, Simon Warner, HPA Hamburg, NLWKN, RWS, Jacobus Hofstede, ANP, DCA, John Ash, OKRA, Grontmij, Safecoast project partners Responsible publisher Rijkswaterstaat - Centre for Water Management (RWS) Citation: Safecoast (2008), COASTAL FLOOD RISK AND TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE IN THE NORTH SEA REGION, synthesis report. Safecoast project team. The Hague, pp. 136. May, 2008. Disclaimer Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate the accuracy completeness and relevance of the information for their purposes and should obtain appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances. The depiction and use of boundaries, place names, location names and related data shown on maps and also included in lists, tables and links in this report are not warranted to be correct and final nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement by the governmental organisations involved. SYNTHESIS REPORT SAFECOAST ExecutivE SUmmary 1. Introduction Background and objectives Since the early nineties of last century coastal managers responsible for coastal defence and management in five North Sea countries (United Kingdom, Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium) have come together in the North Sea Coastal Managers Group (NSCMG). The project Safecoast (July 2005 – July 2008) has emerged from this network. Safecoast is funded by the national and regional governments of the five North Sea countries and is co-financed by the European Union’s Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Safecoast’s aim: to learn from each other by discussing our different contexts and approaches to coastal flood and erosion risk management. Faced with climate change, and associated impacts on our coasts, it is important to analyse, compare and benchmark our methods and ideas, focusing on the question: ‘How to manage our North Sea coasts in 2050?’ Approach and execution Safecoast was divided into work packages called ‘Actions’. The results of these actions were used for developing the views on the (future) management of coastal risks as described in the present synthesis report. In project Safecoast, we have pursued the following: • Utilise tools like scenario analysis: for climate change and future land use, and risk assessments on different scales of space and time to define future challenges for a range of coastal situations; • Search for best practices in risk assessment: Project Safecoast illustrates best practices in terms of flood and erosion risk assessments and underlines the need for better co-operation between countries and regions and between scientists, managers and policy makers; • Identify promising approaches: looking ‘outside the box’ for measures to prevent or cope with the negative consequences of coastal flooding and erosion considering a wide range of possible future (planning) strategies and solutions. This means either to protect our vulnerable coasts with measures of “no regret”, or to limit or compensate for the potential negative consequences of coastal flooding and erosion where needed or possible; • Informing our societies about the challenges related to managing coastal flood and erosion risks seeking consensus and support for the benefit of sustainable coastal risk management. Findings and recommendations Safecoast findings have confirmed the similarities in coastal problems and possible solutions, and the commonality in methodological approaches, among the various North Sea countries. By continuing, intensifying and expanding current management practices it is expected that most of the North Sea flood prone areas could be kept safe at acceptable risk levels and at acceptable costs, under presently assumed trends in climate change. In achieving this, the findings of Safecoast effectively point towards the need for a more integrated approach to coastal risk management, where the main aspects of integration would include: different types of problems, developments, stakeholders, solutions, and types and scales of planning. Recommendations following these main findings are categorised for different target groups related to coastal policy makers and managers and the various research communities: SYNTHESIS REPORT SAFECOAST Policy and management • Make use of the full potential of measures considered within the risk management cycle or ‘safety chain’. • Clearly define national and regional coastal risk management goals in a broad and long-term perspective. • Increase the focus of coastal planning procedures at the participation of local communities and authorities. • Continue the international cooperation and learning process. Research communities • Further develop the integrated planning approach to manage coastal risks. • Improve the knowledge base on the aspects and impacts of climate change. • Continue the exchange of knowledge for development and further improvement of risk assessment methodologies. • Reduce, make explicit and better manage uncertainty in coastal flood and erosion risk assessments. SYNTHESIS REPORT SAFECOAST Foreword This synthesis report is the result of 3 years of co-operation between a number of coastal risk management organisations in five countries bordering the North Sea: Denmark, Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom. Societal awareness of and political attention to the topic of coastal flood and erosion risks has given rise to different approaches to coastal management in most of the North Sea countries. In the 20th century, there were major coastal floods in the North Sea region (listed in table 2.3) with storm surges claiming over 2,500 lives and causing extensive damage. Responses across countries bordering the North Sea have varied, including shortening of the coastline by planning, constructing or strengthening of coastal flood defences, better prediction of storm surges (e.g. early warning systems) and/or rationalisation of defence management (e.g. in the Netherlands there were 3,500 water boards in 1953 and now there are 27). In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low-lying coastal areas have generated renewed attention to flood and erosion risk. Human influence, particularly urbanisation and economic activities in the coastal zone has turned coastal erosion from a natural pheno- menon into a problem of mounting intensity, and is, in many cases, linked to the probability of flooding. Coastal risk management needs, now more than ever, to encompass two fronts: coastal flooding and coastal erosion. When deciding policies and strategies on risk based approaches, earlier projects such as Comrisk and Eurosion have shown that the physical and societal context is a defining factor. By means of example, coastal flood and erosion management in densely populated areas require different solutions than flood and erosion management along uninhabited coasts; this is because a ‘minor’ coastal flood can cause significant societal disruption in the former and fewer impacts in the latter. As a result, current coastal policy and management is organised at a variety of levels, from local to national level, in the five North Sea countries, leading to a wide range of perspectives, attitudes and solutions. In project Safecoast, we have learned from each other by discussing our approaches to coastal flood and erosion risk management. Faced with climate change, and associated impacts on our coasts, it has proven important to analyse, compare and benchmark our methods and ideas. We found that despite the variety in societal attitudes and approaches towards flood risk in the North Sea countries, there are also large similarities in coastal risk management strategies. Also in view of the EU floods directive (2007), we hope that this synthesis report is a worthy contribution to, and inspiration for further cooperation in Europe and the North Sea region in particular. SYNTHESIS REPORT SAFECOAST Contents 1 Introduction 9 1.1 Project Safecoast 10 1.2 The synthesis report 12 1.3 Scope 12 1.4 Contents and organisation of the report 13 2 Coastal risk management: the present context 16 2.1 Overview of the North Sea coastal zone 17 2.2 Coastal flooding and erosion in the North Sea region 23 2.3 Overview of national and regional management policies 26 3 Developments driving future coastal risks 36 3.1 Need and function of scenario analysis 36 3.2 Spatial and infrastructure developments 40 3.3 Climate change scenarios 44 3.4 Planned developments in coastal risk management 50 4 Risk assessment in coastal management