April 24-Month Study Date: April 14, 2016 From: Water Resources Group, Salt Lake City To: All Colorado River Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Recipients Current Reservoir Status March Inflow Percent April 13, Midnight Reservoir Reservoir (unregulated) of Average Elevation Storage (acre-feet) (%) (feet) (acre-feet) Fontenelle 50,000 97 6476.22 147,000 Flaming Gorge 84,000 78 6025.55 3,180,000 Blue Mesa 41,000 117 7487.86 565,000 Navajo 50,000 29 6068.70 1,463,000 Powell 553,000 83 3591.20 10,930,000 _______________________________________________________________________ Expected Operations The operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead in this April 2016 24-Month Study is pursuant to the December 2007 Record of Decision on Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead (Interim Guidelines) and reflects the 2016 Annual Operating Plan (AOP). Pursuant to the Interim Guidelines, the August 2015 24-Month Study projections of the January 1, 2016, system storage and reservoir water surface elevations set the operational tier for the coordinated operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead during 2016. Consistent with Section 6.B of the Interim Guidelines, the Lake Powell operational tier for water year 2016 is the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier. The April 2016 24-Month Study projects the end of water year elevation at Lake Powell to be above 3,575 feet above sea level (ft) and the end of water year elevation at Lake Mead to be below elevation 1,075.0 ft. Therefore, in accordance with Section 6.B.4 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powell operations will shift to “balancing releases” for the remainder of water year 2016. Under Section 6.B.4, the contents of Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be balanced by the end of the water year, but not more than 9.0 million acre-feet (maf) and not less than 8.23 maf shall be released from Lake Powell. Based on the most probable inflow forecast, this April 24-Month Study projects a balancing release of 9.0 maf in water year 2016; the actual release in water year 2016, however, will depend on hydrology in the remainder of water year and will range from 8.23 to 9.0 maf. The projected release from Lake Powell in water year 2016 will be updated each month throughout the remainder of the water year. Consistent with Section 2.B.5 of the Interim Guidelines, the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) Surplus Condition is the criterion governing the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year 2016. The Interim Guidelines are available for download at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/RecordofDecision.pdf. The 2016 AOP is available for download at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/aop/AOP16.pdf. Fontenelle Reservoir – Fontenelle Reservoir is currently at elevation 6475 ft, which amounts to 42 percent of live storage capacity. Inflows for the month of March totaled 50,000 acre-feet (af), or 95 percent of average. Recent daily inflow averages are increasing with the beginning of spring runoff and rain events with a seven-day average of 1,330 cubic feet per second (cfs). The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center has forecasted spring inflows that are below average. April, May and June forecasted inflow volumes amount to 70,000 af (82 percent of average), 110,000 af (67 percent of average), and 250,000 af (84 percent of average), respectively. It is anticipated that releases will be maintained at a baseflow of 950 cfs until May 2016. The next Fontenelle Working Group meeting is scheduled for 10:00 a.m., April 20, 2016. The meeting will be held at the Seedskadee Wildlife Refuge in Green River, Wyoming. The Fontenelle Working Group is an open public forum for information exchange between Reclamation and other parties associated with the operation of Fontenelle Reservoir. Flaming Gorge Reservoir –Flaming Gorge Dam is currently releasing steady minimum releases of 800 cfs. The April unregulated inflow forecast into Flaming Gorge for the April-July period has improved and is currently at 76 percent of average. This falls under the moderately dry hydrologic condition of the Record of Decision. It is anticipated that releases will remain at 800 cfs until the beginning of spring runoff sometime in May or June. Base flow releases are subject to observed hydrology and all projections may change. Unregulated inflow into Flaming Gorge Reservoir during the month of March was 84,000 af, or 83 percent of average. The reservoir elevation is 6,025.5 ft and increasing. Inflows for the next three months are projected to be below average: with April, May and June forecasted inflow volumes at 110,000 af (82 percent of average), 175,000 af (71 percent of average), and 300,000 af (77 percent of average), respectively. The Flaming Gorge Working Group is an open public forum for information exchange between Reclamation and the stakeholders of Flaming Gorge Dam. The public is encouraged to attend and comment on the operations and plans presented by Reclamation at these meetings. Meeting notes from past Working Group meetings are posted on the Working Group webpage. For more information on this group and these meetings please contact Dale Hamilton at 801-379-1186 or Heather Patno at 801-524-3883. Reclamation will be holding the Flaming Gorge Working Group meeting on Tuesday, April 19, 2016, at 11:00 a.m. at the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources offices located at 318 North Vernal Avenue, Vernal, Utah. Aspinall Unit Reservoirs – Crystal Dam is currently releasing 1600 cfs with 1,100 cfs being diverted through the Gunnison Tunnel and 500 cfs flowing through the Black Canyon. The April forecast for the April-July period for Blue Mesa was reduced from March to 515 kaf (76 percent of average). Under the Aspinall Record of Decision, if this forecast volume is forecasted in May, the spring operational targets would fall into the moderately dry hydrologic classification. In terms of the Black Canyon water right, the peak flow target in the Black Canyon would be 3,197 cfs. Crystal Dam operations are anticipated to maintain Black Canyon flows of 500 cfs until May when runoff conditions are expected to peak. At that time, spring peak operations will occur to provide a peak flow in the Gunnison River to attempt to meet the spring operational targets of the Aspinall ROD and also to meet the Black Canyon water right. Unregulated inflow into Blue Mesa during the month of March were 41,000 af (117 percent of average) and the reservoir elevation is 7487.9 ft and is increasing. Inflows to Blue Mesa for the next three months are projected to be below average: with April, May and June forecasted inflow volumes of 55,000 af (71 percent of average), 161,000 af (73 percent of average) and 215,000 af (82 percent of average), respectively. The Aspinall Unit Working Group is an open public forum for information exchange between Reclamation and the stakeholders of the Aspinall Unit. The public is encouraged to attend and comments on the operations and plans presented by Reclamation at these meetings. Meeting notes from past working Group meetings are posted on the Working Group webpage. For more information on this group and these meetings please contact Erik Knight in the Grand Junction Area Office at (970) 248- 0629. The next meeting of the Aspinall Unit Working Group will be held on Thursday April 28th in the Grand Junction, Colorado at the Western Colorado Area Office (445 West Gunnison Avenue - Suite 221). Navajo Reservoir – Navajo is currently releasing 350 cfs. Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP) recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area. Modified unregulated inflow into Navajo during the month of March was 83,316 af, which was 90 percent of average. The reservoir elevation is 6,067.4 ft and increasing. Inflows for the next three months are projected to be below average: with April, May and June forecasted inflow volumes at 120,000 af (70 percent of average), 220,000 af (79 percent of average), 160,000 af (72 percent of average), respectively. The most probable April through July forecast is for 530,000 af (72 percent of average). Under this forecast, a spring peak release of 5,000 cfs for 33 days is expected beginning in early-to-mid May. Until the spring peak release begins, Navajo is expected to release 350 cfs. Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next Navajo Public Operations Meeting is scheduled for April 26th at 1pm at the Farmington Civic Center, Farmington, NM. Glen Canyon Dam / Lake Powell Current Status The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell in March was 553 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (83 percent of average).