INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS: A LITERATURE REVIEW Report Prepared for The Taku River Tlingit First Nation By Jean L. Polfus Research Assistant Round River Conservation Studies April 21, 2008 INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS Polfus Acknowledgments A diversity of people have assisted with the development and refinement of this report, the need for which was identified in collaborative discussions on habitat modeling between Taku River Tlingit Land and Resources Department and the British Columbia Integrated Land Management Bureau. I wish to acknowledge Kim Heinemeyer, Norm McLean and Kerrith McKay for initiating the project. The format and design of this report benefited from the influence of a literature review of the effects of energy development on ungulates by Mark Hebblewhite, who also provided guidance and advice. I thank the Heb Lab for general discussion and ideas about habitat suitability models. Kim Heinemeyer has provided helpful feedback and suggestions on earlier versions of the report. Please cite as: Polfus, J. L. 2008. Incorporating Human Impacts into Habitat Suitability Models: A Literature Review. Report prepared for the Taku River Tlingit First Nation. Cover photos: woodland caribou © Matt Grant, grizzly © Kevin Bernier, mountain goats © Sandra Leidholdt Page 2 INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS Polfus Table of Contents Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ 3 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 5 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10 METHODS ....................................................................................................................... 14 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 15 Woodland Caribou ........................................................................................................ 17 Human Development and Infrastructure ................................................................... 21 Predator-Prey Dynamics ........................................................................................... 24 Logging and Forestry ................................................................................................ 26 Human Harassment ................................................................................................... 27 Summary of Human Impacts on Caribou ................................................................. 29 Grizzly Bear .................................................................................................................. 31 Human Development and Infrastructure ................................................................... 34 Logging and Forestry ................................................................................................ 37 Habituation ................................................................................................................ 38 Increased Human Access .......................................................................................... 39 Summary of Human Impacts of Grizzly Bears ......................................................... 41 Moose ............................................................................................................................ 43 Human Development and Infrastructure ................................................................... 45 Logging and Forestry ................................................................................................ 47 Predator-Prey Dynamics ........................................................................................... 48 Human Harassment ................................................................................................... 49 Summary of Human Impacts on Moose ................................................................... 50 Thinhorn Sheep ............................................................................................................. 51 Human Developments and Infrastructure ................................................................. 53 Human Harassment ................................................................................................... 55 Page 3 INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS Polfus Summary of Human Impacts on Sheep .................................................................... 57 Mountain Goat .............................................................................................................. 58 Human Development and Infrastructure ................................................................... 60 Human Harassment ................................................................................................... 61 Summary of Human Impacts on Mountain Goats .................................................... 63 INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HSM ................................................... 64 Example Models ........................................................................................................... 65 Habitat Suitability Index Models .............................................................................. 65 Bears ..................................................................................................................... 65 Ungulates .............................................................................................................. 68 Resource Selection Function Models........................................................................ 70 Grizzly Bear .......................................................................................................... 71 Caribou .................................................................................................................. 73 Summary of Human Impacts in Habitat Suitability Models ..................................... 73 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................... 75 Woodland Caribou ........................................................................................................ 77 Grizzly Bear .................................................................................................................. 78 Moose ............................................................................................................................ 79 Thinhorn Sheep ............................................................................................................. 79 Mountain Goat .............................................................................................................. 80 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 82 APPENDEX A: Summary of Articles Reviewed by Species ........................................... 96 Page 4 INCORPORATING HUMAN IMPACTS INTO HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS Polfus List of Figures Figure 1. Changes in human impact on biodiversity and ecosystems between 1900 and 2050 using 100% rate of growth in infrastructure and resource utilization compared to 1940-1990 (UNEP 2001). ................................................................................................. 12 Figure 2. Territory of the Taku River Tlingit, Northern British Columbia. The territory covers approximately 4 million hectares (Heinemeyer et al. 2003). ................................ 13 Figure 3. Current (solid lines) and southern limit of historical (dashed line) extent of occurrence of woodland caribou in North America in 2001 (COSEWIC 2002b). ........... 19 Figure 4. Reproductive success or abundance of caribou/reindeer, wolves, bears and elk as a function of distance from infrastructure or road density, as estimated from 20 studies (UNEP 2001). ................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 5. Generalized effect of infrastructure on wildlife: The proportion of 204 species reviewed that decline > 50% in abundance at 1-km segment intervals to infrastructure (Nellemann et al. 2003)..................................................................................................... 20 Figure 6. Current distribution of grizzly bears in Canada. Confirmed observations outside of normally occupied range are identified by stars (Herrero 2005). ................................. 32 Figure 7. A descriptive model of the nature and consequences of human-grizzly bear conflict in the eastern slope of the Canadian Rockies (Herrero et al. 2000). ................... 33 Figure 8. 2000-2001 post-hunt moose population estimates for 28 North American jurisdictions (Timmermann 2003). ................................................................................... 44 Figure 9. Cow moose teaching her calf to eat improperly stored garbage