Pre-K–12 Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education II (GAISE II) A Framework for Statistics and Data Science Education Writing Committee Anna Bargagliotti (co-chair) Sheri Johnson Loyola Marymount University University of Georgia* Christine Franklin (co-chair) Leticia Perez American Statistical Association University of California Los Angeles Center X Pip Arnold Denise A. Spangler Karekare Education New Zealand University of Georgia Rob Gould University of California Los Angeles The Pre-K–12 Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education II (GAISE II) is an official position of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics as approved by the NCTM Board of Directors, February 2020. Endorsed by the American Statistical Association, November 2020. *Current affiliation -The Mount Vernon School Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Bargagliotti, Anna, author. Title: Pre-K–12 guidelines for assessment and instruction in statistics education II (GAISE II) / writing committee, Anna Bargagliotti (co-chair), Loyola Marymount University, Christine Franklin (co-chair), American Statistical Association, Pip Arnold, Karekare Education New Zealand, Rob Gould, University of California Los Angeles, Sheri Johnson, University of Georgia, Leticia Perez, University of California Los Angeles, Denise A. Spangler, University of Georgia. Other titles: Guidelines for assessment and instruction in statistics education (GAISE) report Description: Second edition. | Alexandria, VA : American Statistical Association, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references. | Summary: “This document lays out a curriculum framework for Pre-K–12 educational programs that is designed to help students achieve data literacy and become statistically literate. The framework and subsequent sections in this book recommend curriculum and implementation strategies covering Pre-K–12 statistics education”-- Provided by publisher. Identifiers: LCCN 2020006082 | ISBN 9781734223514 (paperback) Subjects: LCSH: Statistics--Study and teaching (Early childhood)--Standards. | Statistics--Study and teaching (Elementary)--Standards. | Statistics--Study and teaching (Secondary)--Standards. Classification: LCC QA276.18 .G85 2020 | DDC 519.5071/2--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020006082 ©2020 by American Statistical Association Alexandria, VA 22314 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 978-1-7342235-1-4 Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................v Preface ................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................5 Framework ........................................................................................................................................13 Level A ...............................................................................................................................................21 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 22 Essentials for Each Component ............................................................................................................ 22 Example 1: Choosing the Band for the End of the Year Party – Conducting a Survey and Summarizing Data ........................................................................ 24 Example 2: Family Size - Mean as Equal/Fair Share and Variability as Number of Steps .......................... 28 Example 3: What do Ladybugs Look Like – Collecting, Summarizing, and Comparing Data .................... 31 Example 4: Growing Beans – A Simple Comparative Experiment ............................................................ 35 Example 5: Growing Beans (Continued) – Time Series ............................................................................ 37 Example 6: CensusAtSchool – Using Secondary Data and Looking at Association .................................. 38 Summary of Level A ............................................................................................................................... 41 Level B ...............................................................................................................................................43 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 44 Essentials for Each Component ............................................................................................................ 44 Example 1: Level A Revisited: Choosing the Music for the School Dance – Multivariable and Larger Groups ............................................................................................ 45 Example 2: Choosing Music for the School Dance (Continued) – Comparing Groups .............................. 49 Example 3: Choosing Music for the School Dance (Continued) – Connecting Two Categorical Variables ................................................................................... 51 Example 4: Darwin’s Finches – Comparing a Quantitative Variable Across Groups ................................... 53 Example 5: Darwin’s Finches (Continued) – Separation Versus Overlap ................................................... 57 Example 6: Darwin’s Finches (Continued) – Measuring the Strength of Association Between Two Quantitative Variables ...................................................................................... 59 Example 7: Darwin’s Finches (Continued) – Time Series .......................................................................... 61 Example 8: Dollar Street – Pictures as Data ............................................................................................. 62 Example 9: Memory and Music – Comparative Experiment ..................................................................... 67 Summary of Level B ............................................................................................................................... 68 | iii Level C ...............................................................................................................................................71 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 72 The Role of Technology ......................................................................................................................... 73 The Role of Probability in Statistics Essentials for Each Component ................................................. 73 Example 1: Darwin’s Finches from Level B (Continued) – MAD to Standard Deviation .............................. 77 Example 2: Level A and B Revisited: Choosing Music for the School Dance – Generalizing Findings ....... 79 Example 3: Choosing Music for the School Dance (Continued) – Inference About Association ................. 83 Example 4: Effects of Light on the Growth of Radish Seedlings – Experiments ........................................ 84 Example 5: Considering Measurements When Designing Clothing – Linear Regression ........................... 89 Example 6: Napping and Heart Attacks – Inferring Association from an Observational Study ................... 92 Example 7: Working-age Population – Working with Secondary Data ...................................................... 94 Example 8: Classifying Lizards – Predicting a Categorical Variable ........................................................... 97 Summary of Level C ............................................................................................................................. 102 Assessment ....................................................................................................................................105 National and International Standardized Assessments ..................................................................... 105 Sources of Quality Items for Educators .............................................................................................. 105 Level A Assessment Examples ............................................................................................................ 106 Level B Assessment Examples ........................................................................................................... 108 Level C Assessment Examples ........................................................................................................... 111 References ......................................................................................................................................115 iv | Pre-K–12 Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education II (GAISE II) GAISE II Acknowledgements A special thank you to Christine Franklin, Gary Kader, Denise Mewborn (Spangler) Jerry Moreno, Roxy Peck, Mike Perry, and Richard Scheaffer for their leadership and vision in the first seminal GAISE I document. The authors extend a sincere thank you to the ASA/NCTM Joint Committee for funding