Coca crops, forests, people and anti-drug policy in Colombia: Towards the understanding of a complex relationship Ph.D. Thesis Alexander Rincón Ruiz Supervision: Dr. Joan Martínez-Alier (ICTA – UAB) Dr. Unai Pascual (University of Cambridge) Programa de Doctorat en Ciències Ambientals Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) 2013 Foto de portada: Municipio de Tumaco, departamento de Nariño, Colombia. Alexander Rincón “Dedicated to my beloved mother Blanquita (R.I.P.), the source of everything beautiful in me. To you I dedicate this and my life, because with love all things are possible, and this thesis was an act of love”. Coca crops, forests, people and anti-drug policy in Colombia: Towards the understanding of a complex relationship TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF MAPS ..................................................................................................................................... vi Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... viii Resumen ................................................................................................................................................. x Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................ xii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER TWO: An exploratory spatial analysis of illegal coca cultivation in Colombia using local indicators of spatial association and socio-ecological variables ............................................................. 7 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 8 2.2 Study area ................................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Data and methods ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Data for the identification of factors associated with coca cultivation .................................. 11 2.3.2 Coca crops in forest and woody ecosystems .......................................................................... 14 2.3.3 Exploratory spatial analysis of coca cultivation .................................................................... 14 2.4 Results ...................................................................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 Forest, woody ecosystems and coca crops (2001-08) ............................................................ 16 2.4.2 Factors associated with coca cultivation (2001-08) ............................................................... 17 2.4.2.1 Multivariate global spatial analysis .................................................................................... 17 2.4.2.2 Multivariate local Spatial Analysis: .................................................................................... 18 2.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 22 2.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 25 CHAPTER THREE: Examining spatially varying relationships between coca crops and associated factors in Colombia using geographically weighted regression ........................................................... 27 ii 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 Study area ................................................................................................................................. 31 3.3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 32 3.4 The Data ................................................................................................................................... 34 3.5 Results ...................................................................................................................................... 35 3.5.1 GWR models: Stationarity Test (2001 and 2008) ......................................................... 36 3.5.2 Significance analysis of the GWR model 2001 – 2008 ................................................ 37 3.6 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 43 3.7 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 45 CHAPTER FOUR: Caught in the middle: Colombia’s war on drugs and its effects on forest and people ................................................................................................................................................... 47 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 48 4.2 Data sources and methods ........................................................................................................ 52 4.3 Evidence ................................................................................................................................... 57 4.3.1 The effects of aerial fumigation on coca production ............................................................. 57 4.3.2 Fumigation and deforestation ................................................................................................ 64 4.3.3 The effects of fumigation on health and agriculture .............................................................. 66 4.3.4 Aerial fumigation and human displacement .......................................................................... 70 4.4 The uneven effects of fumigation ............................................................................................. 73 4.5 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 78 4.6 Policy implications and conclusions ......................................................................................... 82 CHAPTER FIVE: Can Common Property Regimes in Colombia curb the expansion of coca crops? 83 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 84 5.1.1 The Colombian Pacific region .............................................................................................. 86 5.1.2 Creation of community councils (CC) in the Colombian Pacific region ............................... 88 5.2 Methodological aspects ............................................................................................................ 89 5.2.1 Information and data used ..................................................................................................... 89 5.2.2 Estimation of illicit crop trends based on the legal status of the territory and deforestation analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 90 5.2.3 Association analysis ............................................................................................................... 91 5.2.4 Fieldwork: Case study ........................................................................................................... 92 5.3 Results ...................................................................................................................................... 94 5.3.1 Failure of anti-drug policy: Expansion of illicit crops to collective territories of Afro- Colombian communities and an increase in deforestation ................................................................ 94 iii 5.3.2 Coca crops, an increase in violence, forced displacement and fumigation in community councils in the Pacific region ............................................................................................................ 98 5.3.3 A successful case study amidst increasing coca cultivation: An integrated policy in the Community Council “Rescate - Las Varas” ................................................................................... 100 5.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................... 106 5.5 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 107 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 109 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 113 iv LIST OF TABLES