Patterns of Regional Development in Serbia: A Multivariate Statistical Analysis ISSN 0354-8724 (hard copy) | ISSN 1820-7138 (online) Patterns of Regional Development in Serbia: A Multivariate Statistical Analysis Čoček LadislavA Received: December 2009 | Revised: February 2010 | Accepted: February 2010 Abstract The primary objective of this paper is to examine patterns of regional development in Serbia and to identify un- derlying geographical factors of these patterns. Principal component analysis is used to reveal the basic dimen- sions of regional differentiation. Its results are described in the context of findings from thematically similar re- search on Central European countries. An area’s position in the national settlement system hierarchy has been identified as the strongest determinant of regional differentiation in Serbia. Other strong patterns seem to be connected with macro-geographical position. Success in economic development is most apparent in regions near the metropolitan area of Belgrade, and the general development level, along with a predisposition for agri- culture, exhibits a strong north-south polarization. Specific attention is directed at demographic development, which is characterized by a west-east gradient. Central patterns of regional differentiation are similar to those uncovered in previous Central European research. Regional policy in Serbia should, therefore, try to learn from experience within this region to cope with processes and problems that are often quite similar. Key words: Multivariate Analysis, Regional Development, Serbia Introduction development in most post-communist countries In Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe, of Central Europe are also valid for Serbia. The post-communist transformation has been pro- underlying idea is that core geographical determi- gressing at varying intensity with varying rates of nants are stable and, unless there is a strong force success. Of the countries involved, Serbia was the opposing them – such as communism’s directive last one to begin the transformation process and economic system or another autocracy, outcomes it has done so under difficult political and eco- will be similar and manifest themselves exten- nomic circumstances. While other post-commu- sively as soon as system changes allow them to do nist countries were already knocking on the door so. If this expectation holds true, it would strong- of the European Union (EU), Serbia was strug- ly support a hypothesis describing the transfera- gling to emerge from democratic revolution and bility of foreign experience with regional develop- to apply elementary, market-oriented reforms. Its ment into the Serbian environment. Such findings GDP p.c. was similar to that of Third World coun- could have significant implications for regional tries and its economy and politics were corrupt policy practices. and disorganized. “It is hard to find a society that, This article attempts to offer an overview of ba- in only ten years, could develop such a level of all- sic factors of regional differentiation in Serbia in round backwardness” (Mitrović, 2008, 135). One the broader context of Central and South-east- would expect that these specific conditions would ern Europe. First, contemporary concepts of re- lead to a pattern of regional development distinct gional development research in Central Europe from that of other post-communist countries. and Serbia are evaluated and compared in a the- This paper seeks to demonstrate, primarily on oretical background section. The objective here is a theoretical basis originating from the Czech Re- to present deficiencies in contemporary Serbian public, that, regardless of the specificity of the Ser- regional economic studies. Second, the meth- bian case, the basic factors determining regional odological framework of the paper is summa- A Department of Social Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic; e-mail: [email protected] 14 Geographica Pannonica • Volume 14, Issue 1, 14-22 (March 2010) Ladislav Čoček rized. The primary method employed is princi- Serbia has attempted to verify the applicability of pal component analysis (PCA). The third section, these theoretical presumptions. Therefore, this entitled dimensions of regional development in paper offers new explanatory insight into the re- Serbia, presents the results of the analysis and in- gional differentiation of Serbia. terprets them thoroughly. In the end, conclusions Nevertheless, certain factors must be interpreted are drawn, including practical implications and with caution, with regard for the regional specifics regional perspectives resulting from the research. of Serbia. For example, macro-geographical posi- tion must be carefully explained, making consider- ation for foreign centres of development, due to the Theoretical Background fact that Serbia does not border any region, such as Most research focusing on regional socioeco- Bavaria or Lower Austria for the Czech Republic or nomic differentiation in Serbia, during the trans- Vienna for Slovakia and Hungary. Vuksanović, et. formation period, has employed simple statisti- al. (2004), for example, provide some insight into cal methods or trivial comparison (Miletić, 2006; cross-border economic relationships of Vojvodina. Mitrović, 2008; Rosić, 2004). More thorough at- The west-east polarization of Central European tempts to unravel the complex patterns of region- countries is, in Serbia, traditionally replaced with a al development were often problem-oriented in north-south gradient (Mihailovič, 1990; Ocić, 1998), nature (Jakopin, 2007), and in academic publica- but questions remain as to whether the regions of tions such attempts were rare (Grčić, Ratkaj, 2006; western Romania or southern Hungary, although Radovanović, 2007). The problem of Serbia’s strik- currently more developed economically, could ex- ing regional differences is, nonetheless, widely ac- ert an influence similar to regions along the west- knowledged (Supić, 2007; Austrian Development ern border of the Czech Republic or Hungary. It is Cooperation, 2006; Jakopin, et. al., 2003) and cer- more accurate to assert that any north-south gradi- tainly calls for further investigation into its un- ent in Serbia is a result of physical geography or his- derlying causes, structural patterns and determi- torical reasons. nants. The phenomenon of increasing regional eco- nomic disparities during post-communist trans- Methodological Considerations formation is not new. Evidence of this process has For the purposes of this research concerning fac- been gathered in most of the countries of Cen- tors of regional differentiation in Serbia, the mul- tral, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (Blažek, tivariate method known as principal component 1996; Enyedi, 2005; Gorzelak, 1996; Hampl, 2007; analysis (PCA) was selected. The basic idea of PCA Tomeš, 2001; Tomeš, Hampl, 1999). The regional is the “identification and elimination of redun- pattern behind this observed development is not dancy in the information contained in variables random. Dostál and Hampl (2002) identify a set or groups of variables. The aim is to replace a high of primary geographical factors of regional de- number of preliminary characteristics and their velopment in the Czech Republic that could be relationships with a lower number of components” considered applicable for most post-communist (Heřmanová, 1991, 17). The objective is reached by countries. (1) The first of these factors is the hi- using matrix algebra and the resulting set of new erarchical position of a region (its centre) in its uncorrelated variables, or components, is only national settlement system hierarchy, with spe- one of an indefinite number of solutions. For a de- cial emphasis placed on the duality between met- tailed description of the method, see Heřmanová ropolitan and non-metropolitan regions. (2) The (1991) or Rummel (1970). macro-geographical position of an area, in terms The PCA algorithm can create as many compo- of its distance from developed centres, is the sec- nents as the initial number of variables, but with ond factor. This is derived, first, from the distance an appropriate dataset (the variables should be from the national capital and, second, from for- strongly correlated in a reasonably high number eign centres of development. (3) The third factor is of cases) the first few should be capable of ex- inherited economic specialization. In this context, plaining most of the total variability in a data- economic specialization applies primarily to re- set. The appropriate number of components to be gions with a concentration of declining industrial extracted is usually defined by the eigenvalues of branches and, therefore, it has generally negative the correlation matrix of initial variables. In the consequences. To offer some confirmation, Bar- case of this work, only components with eigenval- jak (2001), focusing on Poland and East Germa- ues (which represent the portion of total variabili- ny, identifies significant agglomerations as highly ty explained by a component) higher than one are developed regions and areas peripheral to signif- used in the subsequent analyses. The results are icant agglomerations, as well as former industri- usually further processed by rotating the space al regions, as problematic. As of yet, no study in defined by components to reach a solution that is Geographica Pannonica • Volume 14, Issue 1, 14-22 (March 2010)