Conservative Party Leadership Strategy and the Legacy of Thatcherite Conservatism, 1997-2005 A dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Richard Hayton Department of Politics, University of Sheffield September 2008 Acknowledgements Doctoral studies are wasted on PhD students. It is a great privilege to spend three (or even four!) years of one's life in academic self-indulgence, an honour not fully appreciated until one re-emerges, slightly bleary-eyed, back into the real world. It is an even greater privilege to get paid for it. For that I am most grateful to the anonymous referees at the University of Sheffield, who deemed a proposal on contemporary conservatism of sufficient value to award me a University Studentship, ahead, I suspect, of much more worthy applications. Sarah Cooke was instrumental in putting together the original funding application whilst I was thousands of miles away, and I am most grateful for her hard-work then and for all of her assistance since. Friends and colleagues in the Department of Politics at Sheffield have helped to make it a most conducive place to pursue postgraduate study. Too numerous to list in full here, those that spring to mind particularly include (in alphabetical order) Craig Berry, Matt Bishop, Dion Curry, Glenn Gottfried, Carissa Honeywell, Olalla Linares Segade, Vas Leontitsis, Robert McIlveen, Tim Montgomerie, Andrew Mumford, Bona Muzaka, Michael Neu, Ben Richardson, Louise Strong, and Adam White. Mike Kenny has been an invaluable intellectual support over the past three years, both directly through his comments on sections of this thesis, and much more widely through the other research projects we have pursued together. Andrew Taylor has been a quite brilliant supervisor, without whose salutary advice and support this project would never have been completed. Andrew Gamble's insightful assistance has improved what appears here immeasurably. Bona demonstrated once again her boundless generosity of spirit by reading the thesis in its entirety. Sean Carey also made many helpful comments on the final draft. That said, the errors of omission and commission that remain are my responsibility alone. My thanks are also due to the interviewees who generously gave their time and shared with me their thoughts on the state of the Conservative Party. My sister Sarah deserves a special mention for her constant emotional sustenance. lowe my greatest debt, however, to my parents. Without their unstinting encouragement and support over twenty-odd years, this journey through education would not have been possible. It is to them, therefore, that this work is dedicated. 1 conclude, therefore, that as fortune is changeable whereas men are obstinate in their ways, men prosper so long as fortune and policy are in accord, and when there is a clash they fail. Machiavelli, The Prince. IV Contents Summary of Dissertation VI List of Figures and Tables VII Interviewees Vlll Chapter 1 - Introduction: The Conservative Party and Electoral Failure 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 The historical tradition 5 1.3 Thatcherism and the political analytical tradition 9 1.4 Contemporary analyses 13 1.5 Conclusion 15 1.6 Outline of Chapters 16 Chapter 2 -The Strategic-Relational Approach 2.1 Introduction 20 2.2 Structure and agency: overcoming the dualism 21 2.3 Agency, rational choice and behaviouralism 23 2.4 The structure-agency interplay: the strategic-relational approach 25 2.4.1 Institutions as structures: the strategically selective context 29 2.4.2 Strategic action: making rational choices 31 2.5 An interpretive caveat 33 2.6 The ideational dimension 36 2.7 Operationalising the strategic-relational approach 37 2.8 Methodology 40 2.9 Conclusion 46 Chapter 3 - Context: The Electoral and Ideational Problem 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 The Electoral Problem 49 3.3 The Ideational Dimension 58 3.3.1 Anti-Thatcherites: The One Nation 'wets' 60 3.3.2 Neo-Thatcherism: Markets and communities? 65 3.3.3 Post-Thatcherism: Conservatism undone? 70 3.4 Conclusion 75 Chapter 4 - Leadership Strategy in Opposition, 1997-2005 4. 1 Introduction 77 4.2 Strategic confusion: 1997-2001 78 4.2.1 A fresh start? The Hague leadership 79 4.2.2 The fresh future curtailed 86 4.3 The search for narrative, 2001-5 93 4.3.1 On the quiet: progress under Duncan Smith 95 4.3.2 Abandoning the search: Michael Howard and a third defeat 100 4.4 Conclusion: strategic failure 103 v Chapter 5 - The European Question 5.1 Introduction 109 5.2 The European Problem 110 5.3 William Hague: Managing the European Question, 1997-2001 116 5.4 'Harder but quieter': European policy 2001-5 120 5.5 Analysis: Conservative positioning and the salience of European integration 125 5.6 Conclusion: Space for Cameron-ism? 134 Chapter 6 - National Identity and the English Question 6.1 Introduction 137 6.2 Devolution: from opposition to acceptance 138 6.3 Nationhood and the politics of immigration 149 6.4 An English Party? The Conservatives and the politics of 161 nationhood since 1997 6.5 Conclusion 167 Chapter 7 - A New Moral Agenda? 7.1 Introduction 169 7.2 Mods and Rockers: Conservative divisions over social and moral issues 170 7.3 Hague: Bandwagon Politics? 176 7.4 Duncan Smith: The rocker who modernised? 183 7.5 Cameron: The family man? 192 7.6 Conclusion 198 Chapter 8 - Conclusion 8.1 Introduction 200 8.2 Theoretical Implications 200 8.3 Leadership Strategy 202 8.3.1 The Parliamentary Party 205 8.3.2 The party membership 208 8.3.3 The electorate 210 8.3.4 Ideology 212 8.4 The Conservatives under Cameron 216 8.5 Conclusion 218 Appendix - Interviewee Biographies 221 Bibliography 225 VI Summary of Dissertation This research is a detailed analysis of the Conservative Party leadership's strategy between 1997 and 2005. Through an application of the strategic-relational approach to political analysis, it examines how the party responded to defeat, and seeks to explain why it struggled to return to a position from which it could effectively challenge for power. The particular focus is on how key figures in the leadership elite interpreted and understood the context they faced, how they sought to orientate their strategies towards it, and how ideology shaped their perspective. Three dilemmas for contemporary conservatism are highlighted and considered in depth: European integration; national identity and the 'English question'; and social liberalism versus social authoritarianism. These were chosen as each presents a significant ideological challenge for contemporary conservatism. The thesis explores how the leadership handled each of these, and how they related to the party's efforts to develop a strategy for electoral revival. The research exposes the inconsistent and uncertain nature of Conservative Party electoral strategy in this period. The strategic-relational analysis suggests that this stemmed not merely from the failure of key actors in the leadership, but from the need to address competing and sometimes contradictory contextual demands, and from difficulties inherent in dealing with the legacy of Thatcherism. The thesis argues that an appreciation of the 1997 -2005 period is essential for an understanding of the trajectory of contemporary conservatism under Cameron. Vll List of Figures and Tables Figure 2.1 From dualism to duality: the strategic-relational approach 27 Figure 3.1 Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat Support, 53 1992-2001 Table 3.1 Best party at managing the economy 54 Table 3.2 Conservative Party Image 55 Table 4.1 Conservative Party Image, April 1997 - May 2001 85 Table 4.2 Conservative Party Image, May 2001 - April 2005 98 Figure 5.1 The Salience of European Integration to the British 121 public, 1997-2007 Table 5.1 Best party on key issues, April 1997 129 Table 5.2 Best party on key issues, February 2001 129 Table 5.3 Best Party on Europe, amongst all voters mentioning the 130 issue as important Table 5.4 Best Party on Europe, all voters 131 Table 5.5 Best Party on Health, amongst all voters mentioning the 131 issue as important Table 5.6 Best Party on Health, all voters 132 Figure 6.1 Conservative vote share at General Elections, 1950-2005 144 Figure 6.2 The Salience of Immigration to the British public, 1997-2007 154 Table 6.1 Immigration, emigration, and net migration from and 155 to the UK, 1997-2005 Vlll Interviewees Unless otherwise stated, interviews were conducted face-to-face and 'on-the-record'. Ancram QC MP, The Rt Hon Michael Portcullis House, 31 January 2007 Bercow MP, John Portcullis House, 15 July 2008 Carswell MP, Douglas House of Commons, 16 January 2007 Duncan Smith MP, The Rt Hon lain House of Commons, 27 June 2006 Green MP, Damian Portcullis House, 24 January 2007 Howard QC MP, The Rt Hon Michael Portcullis House, 23 May, 2006 Lilley MP, The Rt Hon Peter House of Commons, 22 May 2006 May, The Rt Hon Theresa House of Commons, 12 July 2006 Parkinson, The Rt Hon Lord (Cecil) House of Lords, 22 May 2006 Penrose MP, John Portcullis House, 31 January 2007 Portillo, The Rt Hon Michael Private address, 31 May 2006 Ritkind QC MP, The Rt Hon Sir Malcolm Portcullis House, 29 January 2008. Streeter MP, Gary Portcullis House, 9 July 2008. Tebbit, The Rt Hon Lord (Norman) House of Lords, 16 January 2007 Widdecombe, The Rt Hon Ann 1 Parliament Street, SWI 31 January 2007 A further four interviews were conducted 'off-the-record' with interviewees who preferred to remain anonymous. Where these interviewees have agreed to the use of specific (anonymously attributed) quotations, these are referenced using an agreed pseudonym (for example 'Conservative MP' or 'former member of the Shadow Cabinet') or simply as 'anonymous interviewee'.