GENERAL SECRETARIAT FOR CONCESSIONS GREEK MOTORWAY CONCESSIONS SEPTEMBER 2011 Preface This Report presents in summary the problems that were encountered during the implementation of the five Greek Motorway Concessions Projects that are under construction, the actions taken by the General Secretariat for Concessions of the Hellenic Ministry of Infrastructure, Transport and Networks (MITN) and the progress of negotiations with the Concessionaires and the lending Banks to this day. The technical and financial analysis for every project is reported and a solution to the problems is investigated. The basic elements of the New Toll Policy which should be followed after the completion of the negotiations are also presented. This report aims to assist in improving the understanding and coordination of the jointly responsible Ministries of Infrastructure, Transport and Networks and Finance and their Consultants in the next phase of negotiations with the Concessionaires and Lending Banks. Responsibility for the contents of this report lies with the undersigned. The views and proposals included in this report by no means bind the Greek State. Contributors to the compilation of this report:: Stefania Trezou, Dr. Civil Engineer NTUA, Technical Consultant in the General Secretariat for Concessions. Kleopatra Petroutsatou, Dr. Civil Engineer NTUA, Administrator in the General Secretariat for Concessions. Georgios P. Smyrnioudis, Partner, Ernst & Young, who had the responsibility of the financial calculations, and his associates. Additional participants in the Working Groups during negotiations: Antonios Markezinis, Legal Advisor for Concessions of Ministry of Infrastructure, Transport and Networks. Dimitrios Anagnostopoulos, Civil Engineer NTUA, Technical Consultant in the General Secretariat for Concessions. The responsible Directors of the MITN and their teams. Sergios Lambropoulos General Secretary for Concessions ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Synopsis ............................................................................................................. 1 1 The problems of Motorways Concession Contracts ................................. 1 2 The Framework of Understanding and its application .............................. 2 3 Proposals ..................................................................................................... 3 3.1 Facing the toll revenues decline ................................................................................ 3 3.2 Redesign of technical scope ...................................................................................... 4 3.3 Claims and compensations evaluation ...................................................................... 5 3.4 Negotiation with the Lenders ..................................................................................... 6 3.5 Negotiations with Concessionaires ............................................................................ 7 4 Legal basis for the reestablishment of the CC equilibrium....................... 7 5 Search for alternative financial sources .................................................... 7 6 New toll policy .............................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER 1 ......................................................................................................... 9 Summary Presentation of Motorway Concession Projects ............................. 9 2.1 The Program of Concession Motorways ................................................................... 9 2.2 CCs with disbursement suspension by Banks ........................................................ 10 2.3 The funding of Egnatia Odos ................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2 ....................................................................................................... 34 Problems of Motorway CCs ............................................................................. 34 2.1 The CC logic ............................................................................................................ 34 2.2 Inherent problems of CCs ........................................................................................ 34 2.3 Dealing with inherent problems ............................................................................... 35 2.4 Problems due to the financial crisis ......................................................................... 36 2.5 Impact of problems on CCs ..................................................................................... 36 iii CHAPTER 3 ....................................................................................................... 38 Investigation of Problems ................................................................................ 38 3.1 Forecasts for traffic loads and revenues by Concessionaires ................................. 38 3.2 Contracts’ termination .............................................................................................. 40 3.3 Other country practices ........................................................................................... 42 3.4 The problems investigation framework .................................................................... 44 3.5 The Framework of Understanding ........................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 4 ....................................................................................................... 47 The Tolls Problematic ...................................................................................... 47 4.1 The role of tolls and social reactions ....................................................................... 47 4.2 Contractual arrangements for toll collection ............................................................ 47 4.3 Framework of Understanding: Proposed restructuring of toll policy ........................ 49 4.4 Proposed measures at the State’s cost ................................................................... 49 4.5 Proposed measures to be examined by the Concessionaires ................................ 50 4.6 Alternative Concessionaire Proposals ..................................................................... 53 4.7 Specific provisions per Concession Contract .......................................................... 56 4.8 Necessary next steps .............................................................................................. 57 4.9 Long-term toll policy................................................................................................. 57 CHAPTER 5 ....................................................................................................... 59 Aegean Motorway Concession Contract......................................................... 59 5.1 Project Identity ......................................................................................................... 59 5.2 Problems .................................................................................................................. 61 5.3 Compensation, Penalties, Technical Differences and Arbitration ........................... 62 5.4 The Banks' position ................................................................................................. 63 5.5 Updated FM for the Concessionaire and Sensitivity Analyses ................................ 64 5.6 Scenario assessment .............................................................................................. 68 5.7 Adjustment in the operation of toll stations .............................................................. 69 iv CHAPTER 6 ....................................................................................................... 82 Olympia Odos Motorway Concession Contract ............................................. 82 6.1 Project Identity ......................................................................................................... 82 6.2 Financing of the Project ........................................................................................... 82 6.3 Traffic and Income Problems ................................................................................... 84 6.4 Technical Issues / Problems – Deadlines................................................................ 87 6.5 Compensation, Penalties, Technical Disputes, and Arbitration Procedures .......... 88 6.6 The Position of the Banks and Negotiable Elements .............................................. 90 6.7 Results of the Updated Financing Model and Sensitivity Analyses ........................ 90 6.8 Evaluation of the Scenarios ..................................................................................... 97 CHAPTER 7 ..................................................................................................... 100 Ionia Odos Concession Contract .................................................................. 100 7.1 Project Identity ....................................................................................................... 100 7.2 The problems ......................................................................................................... 102 7.3 Technical issues / Problems – Deadlines .............................................................. 109 7.4 Compensation, Penalties, Technical Disputes and Arbitration ............................. 111 7.5 The position of the Banks .....................................................................................