Shellharbour City Council Draft Local Housing Strategy 4 July 2019 Shellharbour Local Housing Strategy Local Housing Strategy Document Control Document: Project Name: Shellharbour Local Housing Strategy PSA Job Number: 0900 Report Name: Local Housing Strategy This document has been prepared for: Contact: City Planning Shellharbour City Council Locked Bag 155, Shellharbour City Centre, NSW 2529 (02) 4221 6246 [email protected] This document has been prepared by: Contact: Kate Burke PSA Consulting (Australia) Pty Ltd PO Box 10824, Adelaide Street, Brisbane QLD 4000 Telephone +61 7 3220 0288 [email protected] www.psaconsult.com.au Revision History VERSION DATE DETAILS AUTHOR AUTHORISATION V7 4 July 2019 FINAL DRAFT Kate Burke Brenton Doyle Malcolm Griffin General Disclaimer The information contained in this document produced by PSA Consulting (Australia) Pty Ltd is for the use of the Shellharbour City Council for the purpose for which it has been prepared and PSA Consulting (Australia) Pty Ltd undertakes no duty of care to or accepts responsibility to any third party who may rely upon this document. 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No section or element of this document may be removed from this document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without the written permission of PSA Consulting (Australia) Pty Ltd. 0900 – 4 July 2019 – V7 ii Shellharbour Local Housing Strategy Local Housing Strategy TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Planning Policy and Context ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.3 Local Government Area Snapshot ............................................................................................................................ 11 1.4 Housing Vision .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 2 THE EVIDENCE ................................................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 Demographic Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 14 Population Change ....................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Population Sex and Age ............................................................................................................................................................... 18 Dwelling Requirements ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Households................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Household Types and Family Composition ................................................................................................................................... 24 Average Household Size ............................................................................................................................................................... 27 Dwelling Structure ....................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Number of Bedrooms ................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Tenure and Landlord Type ........................................................................................................................................................... 33 Household Income ....................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Rental and Mortgage Stress ........................................................................................................................................................ 35 Employment and Key Workers ..................................................................................................................................................... 36 Summary of Demographic Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 38 2.2 Housing Demand ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 Projected Dwelling Demand ......................................................................................................................................................... 39 Rents and Property Sales Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 40 Housing for Particular Needs ....................................................................................................................................................... 44 Projected Dwelling Need and Housing Demand Model ............................................................................................................... 46 2.3 Housing Supply ......................................................................................................................................................... 51 Current and Planned Housing ...................................................................................................................................................... 51 Rental Vacancies .......................................................................................................................................................................... 53 Capacity of the Land Use Controls ............................................................................................................................................... 57 Summary of Housing Supply ........................................................................................................................................................ 58 2.4 Land Use Opportunities and Constraints ................................................................................................................. 58 Opportunities ............................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Constraints ................................................................................................................................................................................... 59 Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................................... 59 2.5 Analysis of the Evidence-Base .................................................................................................................................. 59 Housing Supply and Housing Supply Gaps ................................................................................................................................... 59 Identifying different areas with development capacity ............................................................................................................... 61 Summary of Evidence-Base Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 62 3 THE PRIORITIES ................................................................................................................................................. 65 3.1 The Local Housing Strategy Objectives .................................................................................................................... 65 3.2 Land Use Planning Approach .................................................................................................................................... 66 Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan ............................................................................................................................................ 66 Application of the LRMDH Code ................................................................................................................................................... 67 Local Strategic Planning Statement ............................................................................................................................................. 68 LEP Provisions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 68 Recommendations 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