University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses Fall 12-18-2015 An Examination of Voter Groups That Make Up the Emerging Democratic Majority Thesis Jason Waguespack [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Part of the American Politics Commons Recommended Citation Waguespack, Jason, "An Examination of Voter Groups That Make Up the Emerging Democratic Majority Thesis" (2015). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 2117. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2117 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. 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An Examination of Voter Groups That Make Up the Emerging Democratic Majority Thesis A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Political Science by Jason Waguespack B.A.,University of New Orleans, 2003 M.A.,University of New Orleans, 2007 December, 2015 Copyright 2015, Jason Waguespack ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................. iv INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTERS 1. A HISTORY OF REALIGNMENT LITERATURE...................................................................6 2. HYPOTHESES AND METHODS.............................................................................................28 3. VOTING FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: ANALYSES AND FINDINGS................69 4. VOTING FOR CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES: ANALYSES AND FINDINGS...........96 5. PARTY IDENTIFICATION: ANALYSES AND FINDINGS................................................136 6. THE STATES: ANALYSES AND FINDINGS.......................................................................166 7. FINAL CONCLUSIONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS...............................................................185 APPENDIX A ........................................................................................................................................... 200 APPENDIX B ........................................................................................................................................... 201 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 203 VITA ......................................................................................................................................................... 215 iii ABSTRACT In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published The Emerging Democratic Majority, a book that postulated that the United States was in the beginning of a political realignment that would spell the end of the Reagan-era coalition that gave Republicans an electoral advantage on the presidency. The authors claimed an electorate that would favor the Democratic Party would emerge to take its place. Since Senator Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 presidential election was powered by a coalition that looked much like the one Judis and Teixeira described, it appeared the authors’ thesis was being borne out by actual election results. However, the events of the 2000s and early 2010s have lent both credibility and doubt to this possible realignment, and have drawn attention to the problems of regular realignment theory. Exploring the premise laid out by Judis and Teixeira from their work, The Emerging Democratic Majority, as well as observations about the changing composition of the American electorate, I analyze key groups in the American electorate to determine if these groups are trending more Democratic in presidential and congressional races since the 1988 presidential election. Findings showed several of these groups regularly supported Democratic candidates but did not consistently trend to the Democrats from year to year. Changes across time often depended on match-ups of nonconsecutive years, with Democrats in the year 2008 drawing especially strong support from hypothesized voter groups. While Democrats can count on the support of groups such as voters who achieve high levels of college education or voters with secular outlooks on life, their success still depends highly on candidate quality and advantage on issues and cannot be taken for granted. Political realignment; The Emerging Democratic Majority; Republican Party; Democratic Party; voting behavior; American politics; American presidency; party systems; realignment theory iv INTRODUCTION History was made in the year 2008 when Barack Obama was elected President of the United States, the first African-American to attain the highest office in the country. Obama’s coattails were also formidable, sweeping in eight Democratic Senators and twenty-one Democratic congressmen. History was made a second time, in a smaller fashion, when Obama was re-elected in 2012. Not since Andrew Jackson had a president been elected and then re- elected with a smaller popular vote percentage. While the 2010 midterm elections signaled a backlash against the Democratic Party, it did not presage an ultimate rejection of the Obama administration itself. In fact, Democrats gained two seats in the Senate and eight in the House during the 2012 congressional elections. The Republicans’ poor showing among Hispanic voters in 2012 became instantly noted as a continuing sign that the Republican Party was hitting a firewall with minority voters (Rodriguez 2012; Cillizza 2013). The wide gender gap, where women voted in greater numbers for Obama over Republican Mitt Romney, while men gave Romney a winning margin, was also noted (Jones 2012). What led up to this historic re-election? Was it due to a durable coalition of voters that could not be pierced by a Republican party seen as catering only to whites? Such a coalition was postulated by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira in their 2002 book The Emerging Democratic Majority. With Republican woes in presidential races linked to underperformance among some of the very groups the authors discuss, an examination of their premise is even timelier. The concept of realignment in American politics has separated periods of governance into different party systems, building from an initial concept put forth by V.O. Key that a critical election can change the political composition of the government and sustain it through several 1 electoral cycles. Many political scientists and scholars concur that five party systems have existed in American political history, the fifth being the New Deal system that stemmed from the election of Franklin Roosevelt. Much work and speculation has focused on determining the existence and composition of the party system that has followed the New Deal coalition, if one in fact emerged at all. In his book The Emerging Republican Majority (1970), published during the first term of the Nixon administration, Kevin Philips envisioned the New Deal coalition would break apart and a new party system that favored the Republican Party would take its place. This sixth party system is often identified with the victories of President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and Republican congressional successes in the 1990s. In recent years, political pundits and analysts suggest that a seventh party system has taken shape in the U.S. electorate. If the sixth party system consisted of a Republican majority that included winning most presidential elections, thanks to Republican strongholds in the South and the West, the seventh is seen as a Democratic majority coalition based upon affluent voters with socially liberal attitudes, white working class voters that previously voted Republican, and professionals such as teachers, nurses, and engineers, many of whom may have earned graduate or post-graduate degrees. This coalition was postulated by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira in their 2002 book The Emerging Democratic Majority. The events of the 2000s and early 2010s have lent both credibility and doubt to this possible realignment. At the time of the publication of Judis and Teixeira’s book, Republicans were about to make gains in the first midterm election of the George W. Bush presidency, so this pronouncement seemed ill-timed. The Democratic victories in both houses of Congress in 2006, however, reinvigorated the idea of a Democratic majority, and Senator Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 presidential election was powered by a coalition that looked much like the one Judis 2 and Teixeira described. According to the CNN exit poll, Obama carried 58 percent among those with post-graduate degrees, his second highest in the education category just below those with no high school education. While Obama won with large margins among those on the lower