THE ORGANIZATION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS: LESSONS FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING Joanna Jane Depledge Department of Geography University College London Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of PhD University of London, 2001 ProQuest Number: U642941 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest. ProQuest U642941 Published by ProQuest LLC(2016). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT Global negotiations on environmental problems raise complex challenges for diplomacy, such as dealing with complexity, uncertainty and equity dilemmas. Such challenges are particularly acute in the case of climate change. This thesis examines negotiations under the climate change regime, which overcame such challenges to reach agreement on the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997. Using the analogy of negotiation as ‘theatrical performance’, the thesis analyses the organization of the Kyoto Protocol negotiation process and its effectiveness. This is an under-researched topic, despite its importance. Organizational elements are often open to policy manipulation, and can therefore be ‘stage-managed’ to maximize the chances of a successful negotiation. The thesis examines six organizational elements: the negotiation organizers, namely, the presiding officers, bureau and secretariat; rules for the conduct of business and decision-making; negotiating arenas; participation rules for parties and non-state organizations; arrangements for the input of scientific information; and the use of texts and time as negotiating tools. Little research has yet been conducted on what constitutes an effectively organized negotiation. To advance work in this regard, the thesis presents six effectiveness criteria that could be used to assess the organizational effectiveness of multilateral negotiations. These criteria - efficiency; procedural equity; transparency; information accessibility; promotion of a cooperative approach; and provision of leadership and skill and energy - are applied in the thesis to the case- study of the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. The thesis begins by locating its subject matter within the negotiation and regime literatures, and by exploring the concept of the organization of the negotiation process and its effectiveness. After explaining the background to the Kyoto Protocol negotiations and their main political dynamics, the thesis uses the six effectiveness criteria to consider each of the organizational elements of the Protocol negotiations and their effectiveness. It then assesses how effectively the negotiations were organized as a whole, identifying lessons to be learnt. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, thanks is due to my supervisor, Professor Jacquie Burgess, who agreed to take me on as her PhD student when I changed my thesis topic from urbanization in Brazil to the organization of the climate change negotiations. I am sincerely grateful for her unfailing support and encouragement throughout this PhD process, which has been a rather unusual one. Thanks is also due to the ESRC for their invaluable financial support (postgraduate training award R00429634040), and for having demonstrated the administrative flexibility necessary to accommodate my work at the UNFCCC secretariat in Bonn. I am deeply indebted to all the interviewees who took time out from the climate change negotiations to share their experiences with me and who, in doing so, have greatly enriched this thesis. It would exceed the word limit of this thesis to give the thanks they deserve to all my climate change friends and colleagues around the world who have inspired, encouraged, informed and enlightened me over the past few years. I must, however, single out five individuals, who laid the foundations for this thesis: Richard Kinley, Michael Zammit Cutajar and Greg Terrill, who understand the importance of effective organization; Ambassador Estrada, without whom the story of this thesis would have been very different; and Dr. Ian Rowlands, formerly at the London School of Economics and Political Science, now at the University of Waterloo in Canada, who instilled in me a fascination with climate change that has only grown over the years. And finally, thank you is too weak a word for my mother and Michael, who, in their different ways, helped me more than they know. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS: LESSONS FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING ^ ■ / refer to para 1405. section 316. .. blah.blahhhhhh. ...good, so we re agreed that C02 levels will be down by 2160?... ____ _ Vi'elcunie to the M aldives Ciiniate C.onfereuce Source: Tiempo, 1996. ‘The balance between war and peace may be a matter not of the nature of the differences that divide us, but of the process we use to resolve those differences'' (Raiffa, 1991:9). “...without a knowledge of how institutions work - and what makes them work well - there are likely to be fewer, and worse, institutions than if such knowledge is widespread” (Keohane, 1989:174). TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS........................................................................................................5 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS.........................................................................10 A BASIC CHRONOLOGY OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS 11 CHAPTER 1............................................................................................................................. 13 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................13 The research project...........................................................................................................13 Methodology ........................................................................................................................16 The structure of the thesis ................................................................................................19 CHAPTER 2 .............................................................................................................................21 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS; AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEW ORK.........................................21 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................21 NEGOTIATIONS..............................................................................................................22 The negotiation process......................................................................................22 Multilateral negotiations.....................................................................................24 Multilateral negotiations in the literature ........................................................27 THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENDA.................................................... 30 REGIMES............................................................................................................................34 Regime development............................................................................................37 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS.......................... 37 Conceptualizing the organization of the negotiation process................... 39 The organizational elements..............................................................................39 ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ORGANIZATION.................43 Effectiveness in the literature.............................................................................43 The negotiation goal.............................................................................................45 Effectiveness criteria............................................................................................46 Putting the criteria together................................................................................ 61 SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS......................................................61 CHAPTER 3.............................................................................................................................62 SETTING THE SCENE: A PROLOGUE AND THE PLOT.....................................62 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................62 A PROLOGUE TO THE KYOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS..................62 Climate change: A unique problem ................................................................. 62 The climate change regime................................................................................ 69 THE INTRICATE PLOT OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS 76 The key negotiating issues ..................................................................................77 5 The political dynamics..................................................................................79 ANALYZING THE PLOT...................................................................................... 93 CHAPTER 4 ....................................................................................................................97