. Equipping local government leaders for the future SEMCOG’s mission is solving regional planning problems — improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the region’s local governments as well as the quality of life in Southeast Michigan. Essential functions are: providing a forum for addressing issues which extend beyond individual governmental boundaries by fostering collaborative regional planning, and facilitating intergovernmental relations among local governments and state and federal agencies. As a regional planning partnership in Southeast Michigan, SEMCOG is accountable to local governments who join as members. Membership is open to all counties, cities, villages, townships, intermediate school districts, community colleges and public universities in Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties. SEMCOG’s primary activities support local planning through use of SEMCOG’s technical, data, and intergovernmental resources. In collaboration with local governments, SEMCOG has responsibility for adopting region wide plans and policies for community and economic development, water and air quality, land use, and transportation, including approval of state and federal transportation projects. Funding for SEMCOG is provided by federal and state grants, contracts, and membership fees. All SEMCOG policy decisions are made by local elected officials, ensuring that regional policies reflect the interests of member communities. Participants serve on one or both of the policymaking bodies — the General Assembly and the Executive Committee. Prior to policy adoption, technical advisory councils provide the structure for gaining input on transportation, environment, community and economic development, data analysis, and education. This deliberative process includes broad-based representation from local governments, the business community, environmental organizations, and other special interest and citizen groups. SEMCOG 2008 SEMCOG’s analysis of redevelopment capacity in the City of Detroit provides detail on the demographic and socio-economic impacts of redevelopment. This report explains the methodology used to calculate redevelopment capacity and summarizes the changes that redevelopment can bring to Detroit by small area. Preparation of this document may be financed in part through grants from and in cooperation with the Michigan Department of Transportation with the assistance of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration; the Michigan Department of Natural Resources with the assistance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; the Michigan State Police Office of Highway Safety Planning; and local membership contributions. Permission is granted to cite portions of this publication, with proper attribution. The first source attribution must be “SEMCOG, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments.” Subsequently, “SEMCOG” is sufficient. Reprinting in any form must include the publication’s full title page. SEMCOG documents and information are available in a variety of formats. Contact SEMCOG Information Services to discuss your format needs. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments Information Center 535 Griswold Street, Suite 300 Detroit, MI 48226-3602 313-961-4266 fax 313-961-4869 www.semcog.org [email protected] This report was written by Jeff Nutting. Special thanks to Steve Perry for his assistance in finding and classifying land use data. We also thank the City of Detroit Planning and Development Department for providing data and analysis for this report. Data for this report was based in large part on information supplied by the City of Detroit. The redevelopment capacity summarized in this report was based on a division of parcels in the city into one of six redevelopment types explained below, the last four of which represent parcels which have significant capacity to redevelop. No Need to Redevelop – Parcels which have sufficient improvement value that they do not represent additional development capacity. Not Able to Redevelop – Parcels which are considered undevelopable or the land use is extremely unlikely to change. These include uses such as cemeteries and recreation areas. Vacant Developable – These are parcels that are currently vacant, regardless of whether a structure ever existed on the property, and have the capacity to redevelop. Building Has No Value – These parcels contain structures or other significant physical infrastructure that is in such poor condition it must be demolished, and therefore have redevelopment capacity. High Residential Capacity – Parcels which currently have a residential use and the existing structure can be improved, regardless of whether the structure is occupied. These are ideal candidates for redevelopment. High Nonresidential Capacity – Parcels which currently have a commercial, industrial, or institutional use and the existing structure can be improved, regardless of whether the structure is currently in use. These parcels are also ideal candidates for redevelopment. ii - Redevelopment Capacity in the City of Detroit Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... iii List of Data Displays ................................................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Redevelopment Capacity .............................................................................................................................. 3 Build-Out Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Changes Redevelopment Could Bring .......................................................................................................... 5 Historical Perspective ................................................................................................................................... 6 Population, Households, and Jobs................................................................................................................. 7 Neighborhood Impacts .................................................................................................................................. 9 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 iii - Redevelopment Capacity in the City of Detroit Table 1 Additional Capacity based on Redevelopment ....................................................................... 5 Table 2 Comparing a Fully Redeveloped Detroit with the Past and Present ....................................... 6 Table 3 Largest Gains in Capacity by Neighborhood ........................................................................ 11 Table 4 Redevelopment Capacity by Number of Parcels by Neighborhood, 2005 ............................ 13 Table 5 Additional Capacity by Neighborhood (monetary values in millions) ................................. 15 Table 6 Population by Neighborhood, 1950-2030 and Capacity ....................................................... 16 Table 7 Households by Neighborhood, 1950-2030 and Capacity ...................................................... 18 Table 8 Housing Units by Neighborhood, 1950-2030 and Capacity ................................................. 20 Table 9 Jobs by Neighborhood, 1950-2030 and Capacity ................................................................. 21 Table 10 Peak (1950) and Capacity Population and Jobs by Neighborhood ....................................... 23 Table 11 Impact of Declining Household Size over Time by Neighborhood ...................................... 26 Figure 1 Number of Parcels by Redevelopment Capacity, City of Detroit, 2005 ................................. 3 Figure 2 Population, Households, and Jobs, City of Detroit, 1950-2030 and Capacity ........................ 7 Figure 3 Loss of Multi-family Housing from 1950 to 2000 in Downtown Detroit ............................... 8 Figure 4 Average Household Size in the City of Detroit, 1950-2000 ................................................... 9 Figure 5 Neighborhoods, City of Detroit............................................................................................. 10 Figure 6 Parcel Redevelopment Capacity, City of Detroit, 2005 ........................................................ 14 Figure 7 Change in Population from Redevelopment, by Neighborhood, City of Detroit .................. 17 Figure 8 Change in Households from Redevelopment, by Neighborhood, City of Detroit ................ 19 Figure 9 Change in Jobs from Redevelopment, by Neighborhood, City of Detroit ............................ 22 Figure 10 Land Use, City of Detroit, 1955 ............................................................................................ 24 Figure 11 Land Use, City of Detroit, 2000 ............................................................................................ 25 iv - Redevelopment Capacity in the City of Detroit The redevelopment analysis presented in this report