- 1 - - 2 - - 3 - CONTENTS Pages RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................................................................5 FOREWORD...............................................................................................................................7 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................9 CHAPTER I - OVERVIEW......................................................................................................15 I. FAST-CHANGING SOCIETIES................................................................................16 II. THE RETURN OF RELIGION: A HARDENING IDENTITY...............................18 III. THE GAP BETWEEN PEOPLES AND GOVERNMENTS...................................20 IV. A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST ...........................................21 V. ASSETS AND CONSTRAINTS ................................................................................22 VI. THE POLITICAL RISE OF SHIISM .....................................................................25 CHAPTER II - A TWO-PRONGED CHALLENGE ...............................................................29 I. PEACE AND SECURITY FOR ALL: CREATING A PALESTINIAN STATE .......................................................................................................................29 II. AVOIDING NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST .................61 CHAPTER III - WEAKNESSES ..............................................................................................83 I. ANARCHY IN YEMEN..............................................................................................83 II. THE REBIRTH OF IRAQ ........................................................................................88 III. CONFESSIONALISM IN LEBANON ....................................................................97 CHAPTER IV - QUESTIONS ..................................................................................................99 I. WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH AL QAEDA? ..........................................................99 II. HOW WILL MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION TAKE PLACE IN EGYPT? ............107 III. WHITHER SYRIA?...............................................................................................112 CHAPTER V - BRIGHT PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE...............................................115 I. SAUDI ARABIA'S CAUTIOUS MODERNIZATION ............................................115 II. THE GULF: ANOTHER FACE OF THE ARAB WORLD...................................122 - 4 - CHAPTER VI - FRANCE AND EUROPE IN THE MIDDLE EAST...................................127 I. FRANCE'S FOREIGN POLICY..............................................................................127 II. EUROPE'S PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST................................................133 CHAPTER VII - RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................139 I. WHAT FRAMEWORK FOR WHICH POLICY?...................................................139 II. THE STEPS TO TAKE ...........................................................................................142 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................................149 Reports before the committee on trips to the Middle East....................................................150 Presentation of the rapporteurs' conclusions.........................................................................169 APPENDIX 1 - List of people met .........................................................................................175 APPENDIX 2 - Hamas Charter (1988)..................................................................................191 APPENDIX 3 - Map of the Gaza Strip..................................................................................205 APPENDIX 4 - Interview between the French Senate mission and Khaled Meshaal – political leader of Hamas, Damascus, January 20, 2009 – ...........................206 APPENDIX 5 – The Partition of Palestine............................................................................211 APPENDIX 6 - What is left of the West Bank .......................................................................212 APPENDIX 7 - Israel's political system and declaration of independence..........................213 APPENDIX 8 - The Palestinian National Reconciliation Document ...................................216 APPENDIX 9 – Letter from His Exc. Mr. Seyed Mahdi Miraboutalebi, relating to Iran's official stance on its nuclear program ................................................223 - 5 - RECOMMENDATIONS I. THE FRAMEWORK AND PRINCIPLES 1. The framework y Defining a European line of action on Middle East policy, which would be more than a minimum consensus, in the framework of close cooperation between the countries that desire it, especially Germany, England, Italy and Spain; y Associating Turkey with the definition of that policy; y Making the Quartet more operational; y Coordinating our actions with the new US administration better. 2. The principles y Make the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains central, the priority; y Disconnect the treatment of conflicts; refuse, for example, to make successes on the Palestinian issue depend on advances on the Iranian dossier; y Target diplomatic actions on issues threatening our security, economy and bilateral relations. II. THE ACTIONS TO CARRY OUT 1. Commit to the creation of a Palestinian State y The United States is pressuring Israel to totally end settlement activity. Europe must continue backing that policy, especially with regard to settlements in Jerusalem, as it has until the present, but now it must act in concert with the United States to obtain a lifting of the Gaza blockade from the government of Israel. y Europe must pressure the Palestinians into forming a government capable of negotiating on their behalf. y The formation of that new government will depend less on a hypothetical reconciliation than on new elections, whose results will be respected by the Western powers. y To hold those elections, it is necessary to appoint a transitional Palestinian Authority, which must settle the issue of the voting method. - 6 - y To facilitate the appointment of a transitional Palestinian Authority, Europe must offer its mediation, in close connection with the United States and Turkey, which might propose the lifting of the Gaza blockade and the resumption of European aid in exchange for an agreement on the transitional Palestinian Authority and the holding of elections. That requires agreeing to speak to Hamas. 2. Prevent Iran from obtaining the bomb and avoid bombing Iran y Support the US outstretched hand policy and do everything possible to prevent, by negotiation, Iran's nuclear program from becoming a military program. y If talks fail, prepare harsh economic sanctions against the Iranian government. 3. Save the Yemeni State from failure to keep it from becoming Al Qaeda's next base y An international conference on Yemen's future should take place as soon as possible. 4. Help Iraq rebuild its State y Free elections are not enough for Iraq's rebirth. It also needs an impartial State: civil servants, judges, administrators, teachers, professors, soldiers and police officers who put the national interest above those of their communities. Europe and France can offer help if the Iraqi government really wants it. - 7 - FOREWORD "If you understand anything about the Middle East, it must be because it was poorly explained to you." - Percy Kemp – Le système Boone. Ladies and gentlemen, On September 22, 2008 the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee entrusted two of its members, UMP senator and committee vice-president Jean François-Poncet, and Socialist senator and Senate office secretary Monique Cerisier-ben Guiga, with a Middle East fact- finding mission. The rapporteurs made seven trips between October 2008 and June 2009, traveling to the Middle East's 15 countries, except Iran and the Sultanate of Oman. They held 357 interviews and hearings. In Paris they held 40 hearings of experts capable of shedding light on the region's various aspects. They made six trips, in particular to the Atomic Energy Commission's Military Applications Department and EADS' Astrium, to ascertain how advanced Iran's nuclear program and ballistic capabilities are. The rapporteurs decided to withhold the interview and hearing minutes in order to keep the information they gathered confidential. They were unable to visit Iran before the June 12, 2009 elections because of the discourteous refusal of Iran's ambassador in Paris, Seyed Mehdi Miraboutalebi, to grant them visas. No political leader in Israel agreed to see them, with the notable exception of Haim Oron, the head of Meretz, because of their meeting in Damascus with Khaled Meshaal, the political leader of Hamas. The rapporteurs also went to Turkey, Washington, New York and Brussels to meet people most involved in Middle East affairs. This report presents an overview of the region, with is common points and special problems, and attempts to understand all its aspects. It does not claim to examine the case of every country in proportion to its importance. The recalling of certain historical facts will be superfluous for those familiar with the region. - 8 - The purpose of this report is to help France's parliament form its own opinion on our country's