Available online at http://www.ijabbr.com International journal of Advanced Biological and Biomedical Research Volume 1, Issue 10, 2013: 1185-1198 GIS-based Monitoring and EWSs of Desertification (Case study; southeastern of Iran) Gholam Reza Rahdari 1, Mohammad Reza Rahdari 2, Ali Akbar Fakhireh 3, Ali Reza Shahryari 3, Hassan Khosravi 4 1Range, Forest and Watershed management Organization, Iran 2MS.c student of combating desertification, Natural resource faulty, University of Tehran, Iran 3Associate Professor, Natural resource faulty, University of Zabol, Iran 4Assistance Professor, Natural resource faulty, University of Tehran, Iran ABSTRACT Today one of the ecological crisis is the phenomenon of desertification that affecting the world. Desertification is more related to social and anthropogenic issues than natural causes and it becomes more important over the time. Monitoring is the systematic collection and analysis of information as a project progresses. In this study, using AHP method and GIS techniques has been to assess desertification process with IMDPA model in 5.7864 acres of Southeast region in the Iran. The results of the analysis showed that desertification benchmarks and indicators in the three periods had a nonlinear trend of desertification process in the region so that the numerical value is equal to 2.73 in the period 2001-2004 but In the period 2004-2007 the figure has decreased that is show decreasing trend of desertification in recent years and In the period 2007-2010 the numerical value is 2.55 that observed a increasing trend of desertification. Among the indicators studied, aridity and annual precipitation indicators were maximum effect with values 3.81 and 3.4 And SAR values has 1.17 that the least impact on desertification. After analysis of data we understanding that in the many years we had in warning about indicators but we located in not warning years in 2007 and 2008 with climate benchmark. We find that region is not in warning about SAR indicator in all years of study and we are in warning about precipitation indicator in all years except 2007 in region. Key words: Monitoring, Desertification, EWSs, IMDPA, Iran INTRODUCTION Land degradation is a global process which ultimately leads to a reduction of soil fertility (Luca Salvati, 2012). In dry areas Land degradation coupled with extreme bio-physical and socio-economic phenomena, phenomena, may turn into an irreversible process of environmental degradation that is desertification Corresponding Author E-mail: [email protected] 1185 | Page Rahdari et al Int J Adv Biol Biom Res. 2013; 1(10):1185-1198 (Montanarella, 2007). In the Mediterranean basin, sensitivity to Land degradation has generally been associated to ecological conditions (e.g. climate aridity, soil characteristics and erosion, slope, vegetation cover) together with specific aspects of drought, human pressure (e.g. population density), and unsustainable land use management(Salvati, 2012). Desertification was initially defined as the change of productive lands into desert, caused by human activity, as suggested by Aubreville in 1949 (Herrmann and Hutchinson, 2005); later as the development of barren mobile sand dunes as described by Le Houerou Houerou in 1968 for the northern edge of the Sahara (Dregne, 1977). The United Nations Environment Program in 1977 defined desertification as “the diminution or destruction of biological potential of land which can lead ultimately to desert-like conditions”; UN member countries have ratified the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) which provides international guidelines for responding to desertification. According to the definition in this Convention, desertification is “land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities” (Abubakar,1997; Warren, 2002; Singh, 2009; Verstraetel et al.,2009; Andrew,2010; Dawelbait and Morari, 2012; D’Odorico et al., 2013). It is widely recognized that desertification is a serious threat to arid and semiarid environments which cover 40% of the global land surface and are populated by approximately 1 billion humans. Given the potential relevance of this problem, it is surprising that there is no consensus on the proper way to assess the desertification status of a piece of land. During the last 70 years, conflicting definitions have produced both different assessment methodologies and divergent estimates (veron et al., 2006). Desertification is regarded as one of the most serious social–economic–environmental issues in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (Sepehr and zucca, 2010). Finally, several studies have been conducted to assess desertification which many regional models are present. The most important offered models are UNEP-FAO (FAO/UNEP, 1984; Grumblat, 1991; Harahsheh, 1998; ), TAXONOMY (Babaev et al., 1993: Kharin, et al. 1985) ESAs1 (Basso, F. et al. 1999; Giordano, et al. 2002; Ladisa, 2002;), MEDALUS (European Commission, 1999; Kosmas, et al. al. 1999; Zehtabian, Gh., et al. 2005, 2008), ICD2 (Ekhtesasi, M., M. Mohajer, 1995), MICD3 (Ahmadi, et et al. 2005), IMDPA4 (Ahmadi, 2004; Zehtabian, et al. 2009). Monitoring is the systematic collection and and analysis of information as a project progresses. It is aimed at improving the efficiency and effectiveness of a project or organization. It is based on targets set and activities planned during the planning phases of work. It helps to keep the work on track, and can let management know when things are going wrong. If done properly, it is an invaluable tool for good management, and it provides a useful base for evaluation. It enables you to determine whether the resources you have available are sufficient and are being well used, whether the capacity you have is sufficient and appropriate, and whether you are doing what you planned to do. In comprehensive management, the monitoring content is systematic collection and storage of data from activities and strategies that provide assessment and report about the overall condition of the study area. It must be understood that the Earth sensitive is not static and it is require to constant monitoring (Salvati,Zitti;2009) and Some of these environmental changes require to an an early warning system Because of the cumulative effect of these changes on society and the environment in the long term will be more and more destructive and ultimately imposes higher costs. Also according to natural and human hazards Such as drought, flood, deforestation, erosion, desertification and etcetera it is so important that we need to monitor and predict these effects to help for 1 Environment Sensitive Areas to Desertification 2 Iranian Classification Desertification 3 Modified Iranian Classification Desertification 4 Iranian Model of Desertification Potential Assessment 1186 | Page Rahdari et al Int J Adv Biol Biom Res. 2013; 1(10):1185-1198 reduce these effects. There are many definitions of an EWS that are used to guide the actions of individuals, groups, and governments. The formal UN definition is as follows: “The provision of timely and effective information, through identifying institutions, that allow individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response” (ISDR, 2003). Masudi(2011) provide an early warning system for the study of desertification in Kashan plain with water and climate indicators. She used from IMDPA model and GIS and defined it in terms of both hardware and software. After evaluation of benchmarks she found that the numerical value of water benchmark is 3.36 and had the greatest impact on desertification intensity. Finally, the sensitive areas were identified in order to monitor the relevant data necessary equipment shall be installed in those areas. Khosravi (2012) presented presented an early warning system for the study of desertification in Kashan plain with use of IMDPA and GIS. With regards to region condition he was evaluated 8 benchmarks and 32 indicators. Eventually for present of an EWSs information on criteria and indicators for desertification over a nine year period was the systematic collection and analysis. Finally base on the Benchmarks and indicators affecting desertification, sustainable threshold was defined for each indicator. Timothy M. Lenton(2013) in his study offer a new classification of environmental shocks from a dynamical systems perspective, and reviews early warning systems for environmental shocks, particularly in climate systems and ecosystems. And he said that Three main categories of environmental shock are identified; extreme events, abrupt swings, and tipping points. MATERIALS AND METHODS Case study The study of area is located between 2840107 to 2828886 longitude and 733558 to 747693 latitude in the UTM system. This area restrict from north and northwest to Nikshahr city, from southwest is limit to Jask area of the Hormozgan province in Iran, the south is by the gulf of Oman and the east curb in the range of Chabahar in Iran and The area is 5/7864 acres. Politically the region is part of coastal Konarak city and located in 120 kilometers from it. The main occupation of this area is Farming and fishing. According to right conditions of soil and groundwater, this area is one of the poles of agricultural in the Sistan and Balochestan province in Iran. The main river in the region is the Rabch that emanates from the heights of Nikshahr and after a long distance entering to Oman gulf. Coastal dunes with a height of 5 meters along the coast have formed and the majority of these hills have been active and moving. In the study area in summer there is monsoon rainfall and so in the winter systematically regime that influenced by the origin of the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Most of the rainfall in autumn and winter, and the long-term average rainfall are 94/98 mm and the average temperature estimate to 26/6 ° C. The average relative humidity was 65%, the mean wind speed is 6 knots, the prevailing southwest wind and 40% is the percentage of calm winds.