Annex 2 Development of new baselines and data reconciliation and update 17 April 2018 Prepared by / compiled by: Malin Zu Castell-Rudenhausen (VTT), Ann Van der Linden (VITO), Alessio D’Amato (SEEDS), Francesco Nicolli (IRCRES) EEA project manager: Almut Reichel – Stefan Speck Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Data update - methodology .............................................................................................................................. 3 Austria – Baseline modelling and data updates ................................................................................................ 5 Belgium – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 9 Bulgaria – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................................ 13 Croatia – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 18 Cyprus – Baseline modelling and data updates............................................................................................... 23 Czech Republic – Baseline modelling and data updates ................................................................................. 27 Denmark – Baseline modelling and data updates ........................................................................................... 31 Estonia – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 34 Finland – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 39 France – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................................... 44 Germany – Baseline modelling and data updates ........................................................................................... 45 Greece – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 48 Hungary – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................................ 53 Ireland – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 58 Italy – Baseline modelling and data updates ................................................................................................... 63 Latvia – Baseline modelling and data updates ................................................................................................ 67 Lithuania – Baseline modelling and data updates ........................................................................................... 71 Luxembourg – Baseline modelling and data updates ..................................................................................... 76 Malta – Baseline modelling and data updates ................................................................................................ 80 The Netherlands – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................... 85 Poland – Baseline modelling and data updates .............................................................................................. 89 Portugal – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................................ 94 Romania – Baseline modelling and data updates ........................................................................................... 98 Slovakia – Baseline modelling and data updates .......................................................................................... 102 Slovenia – Baseline modelling and data updates .......................................................................................... 106 Spain – Baseline modelling and data updates ............................................................................................... 110 Sweden – Baseline modelling and data updates ........................................................................................... 115 United Kingdom – Baseline modelling and updates...................................................................................... 120 Appendix 1 Municipal solid waste composition as fed into the model for 2015 .......................................... 125 Appendix 2 Municipal solid waste generation and management as fed into the model for 2015 (first treatment step) ............................................................................................................................................................... 126 Appendix 3 Split of biowaste treatment technologies for different components of biowaste as fed into the model for 2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 127 Appendix 4 Split of the use of the biogas from anaerobic digestion plants as fed into the model for 2015 128 Appendix 5 Split of the types of mechanical biological treatment variants as fed into the model for 2015 129 Appendix 6 Split of the types of waste incineration as fed into the model for 2015.................................... 130 Appendix 7 Municipal solid waste generation projections for Member States, 2020–2035, ‘000 tonnes ... 131 Appendix 8 Baseline scenarios for the future management of municipal solid waste ................................. 132 2 Data update - methodology The European Reference Model on Municipal Waste Generation and Management aims to support the assessment of the performance of Member States’ municipal solid waste management systems, and how they are likely to perform in the future. The model can serve as a tool to compare different future policy scenarios from a broad perspective, including both financial and environmental aspects. Moreover, it is intended to be used as a tool for the early warning system proposed by the European Commission within its 2015 Circular Economy Package, aimed at identifying countries that are at risk of missing the European Union targets on recycling municipal solid waste (MSW) and packaging waste, and the targets on the diversion of waste from landfill. Key model data were last updated in 2017, a task performed by the waste management team of the European Topic Centre on Waste and Materials in a Green Economy (ETC/WMGE), commissioned by the EEA. The necessary data were collected by a consortium led by Eunomia Research & Consulting as part of a study1 for the European Commission to identify Member States at risk of non-compliance with the 2020 recycling target of the Waste Framework Directive. The ETC/WMGE, in cooperation with Eunomia, prepared a questionnaire requesting up-to-date statistics, as well as information on expected future developments, and strategies on the management of MSW in Member States. The questionnaire aimed to update the most relevant data in the model, and to broaden knowledge of Member States’ MSW management systems. An update is a key step in the modelling process, and also provides the best possible representation of country characteristics when it comes to designing the early warning system. The questionnaire was divided into three sections: the current situation, including MSW composition, generation and treatment in place, as well as existing treatment capacities; expectations for the future, including projections of MSW generation, details of policies under implementation that will have an impact in the near future, future treatment capacity, and planned and potential changes to the collection systems; recently implemented and planned measures for increasing MSW recycling rates. Eunomia collected data through the questionnaires and meetings with Member State representatives. The updates to the model’s data were mainly done through analysis of the returned questionnaires, and included MSW generation, composition and treatment data, as well as the baseline scenario for estimated future developments in MSW generation and management. The questionnaires were analysed and requests for clarification and additional information were sent to the Member States through Eunomia. The final answers were then analysed by the ETC/WMGE waste management team. The questionnaires were analysed for inconsistencies, which were corrected based on the most reliable data, and gaps were filled based on the 2015 version of the model or other available data. For the adjustments and gap filling, an understanding of the quality and level of uncertainty in the data was important. One key element of the analysis of the questionnaires was respect for Member States’ answers. Thus, whenever the country answers were not contradictory in any sense, they were used for the update of the model. 1 Early Warning Mechanism - Study to Identify Member States at Risk of Non-compliance with the 2020 target of WFD and to Follow-up the Compliance Promotion Exercise Phase 1 and 2, under Framework Contract ENV.C.2/FRA/2013/0023). 3 After analysing the data, the ETC/WMGE team modelled a set of baselines. ETC/WMGE and EEA waste management experts first analysed the questionnaire answers and other available data