Best Export Markets for U.S. Renewable Energy Equipment, 2009 Best Export Markets for U.S. Renewable Energy Equipment, 2009 was compiled by Marie- Catherine Verdy, under the supervision of Maurice Kogon, Director of the El Camino College Center for International Trade Development (CITD) in Hawthorne, California. The report is based largely on 2009 Country Commercial Guides (CCGs) prepared by United States Commercial Service (USCS) posts abroad. All CCGs include a standard chapter “Leading Sectors for U.S. Exports.” This report drew from those CCGs which specifically recommended Renewable Energy as a best prospect for U.S. exports. CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE DEVELOPMENT 13430 Hawthorne Blvd, Hawthorne, California 90250 USA http://elcamino.citd.org Phone: (310) 973-3173 Fax: (310) 973-3132 E-mail: [email protected]. Best Export Markets for U.S. Renewable Energy Equipment Table of Contents Page I. U.S. Renewable Energy Industry – Competitive Position & Market Potential 3-5 II. Export Market Brief: Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices, including 6 Photovoltaic Cells; Light-Emitting Diodes (HTS 854140) III. Market Potential Indicators: Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices, 7-9 including Photovoltaic Cells; Light-Emitting Diodes (HTS 854140) A. Top 30 U.S. Export Markets, 2005-2008, by Country 7 B. Top 30 World Importers, 2008 8 C. Top 30 World Exporters & U.S. Market Share, 2008 9 IV. Best Prospect Market Assessments – Renewable Energy Industry 10-74 Austria Ireland Spain Belgium Hungary Switzerland Chile Korea Thailand China Latvia Ukraine Czech Republic Mexico UK Denmark Norway Uruguay Finland Poland Germany Portugal V. Trade Events 76 VI. Available Market Research 77 Appendix: Products in Renewable Energy, by Schedule B/HS Code 79 2 I. U.S. Renewable Energy Industry Competitive Position and Market Potential Renewable Energy is derived mainly from solar, wind hydro, geothermal, ocean/tidal and biomass sources to generate electricity and produce clean fuel. Solar energy is most often produced using photovoltaic devices, located on rooftops or on ground-mounted fixtures, to convert the sun's heat or light into electricity. Large-scale concentrating solar power systems can also produce energy at a central power plant. Wind energy transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical or electrical energy. Mechanical energy mostly uses windmills to pump water in rural or remote locations. Wind electric turbines generate electricity for homes and businesses and for sale to utilities. Hydropower converts the energy in flowing water to electric energy. Huge power generators are placed inside dams. Water flowing through the dams spins turbine blades connected to generators. Power is produced and is sent to homes and businesses. U.S. Competitive Position. The U.S. renewable energy economy is exploding. In terms of venture capital alone, private investment in the sector topped $2.6 billion dollars in 2007.1 The U.S. solar energy industry grew to new heights in 2008. • Overall U.S. solar industry capacity increased 17%. • Installed grid-tied PV increased 58% in 2008 over 2007. • Installed grid-tied PV increased by more than 18,000 installations (+27%) in 2008 • More than 6 GW (6,090 MW) of utility-scale CSP plants are in the pipeline. • PV manufacturing capacity increased 65% and production grew by 53%. • California is the top state for grid-tied PV capacity additions in 2008 (178.6 MW) • California is also #1 in total cumulative grid-tied PV (530.1 MW).2 The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all previous records in 2008 by installing over 8,500 megawatts (MW) of new generating capacity (enough to serve over 2 million homes), increasing the nation’s total wind power generating capacity by 50% to over 25,300 MW and channeling an investment of some $17 billion into the economy. For the fourth year, wind power was second only to natural gas in terms of new capacity added. The new wind projects completed in 2008 account for about 42% of the entire new power-producing capacity added nationally last year, according to initial estimates, and will avoid nearly 44 million tons of carbon emissions, the equivalent of taking over 7 million cars off of the road..3 Hydropower facilities in the U.S. can generate enough power to supply 28 million households with electricity, the equivalent of nearly 500 million barrels of oil. The total U.S. hydropower capacity -- including pumped storage facilities -- is about 95,000 megawatts. Researchers are working on advanced turbine technologies that will not only 1 Factsheet – Barak Obama Energy Speech, 08/03/08 2 U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review, 2008. Solar Energy Industry Association 3 The American Wind Energy Association, 2008 3 help maximize the use of hydropower, but also minimize adverse environmental effects.4 Hydropower is the most important and widely-used source of renewable energy. It represents 19% of total electricity production worldwide. Canada is the largest producer of hydroelectricity, followed by the U.S. and Brazil. Roughly two-thirds of the economically feasible potential has yet to be developed..5 Market potential. Competitive trade data for most products in this sector are lumped in basket categories and are not separately identifiable. However, data are available on exports of solar cells and panels (HS 8541406020), which have increased sharply in recent years. U.S. Exports of Selected Green Products, 2005-08 2008 Value % Change % Total HS/Sch B # Product ($ millions) 2005-08 2008 8541406020 Solar cells and panels Total to World $981.2 201.7% 100.0% Top Market (Germany) $407.1 148.3% 41.5% China (#10) $19.0 2,147.6% 1.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Worldwide demand. Total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 50% from 2005 to 2030. The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD economies. Although high prices for oil and natural gas, which are expected to continue throughout the period, are likely to slow the growth of energy demand in the long term, world energy consumption is projected to continue increasing strongly as a result of robust economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries. OECD member countries are, for the most part, more advanced energy consumers. Energy demand in the OECD economies is expected to grow slowly over the projection period, at an average annual rate of 0.7%, whereas energy consumption in the emerging economies of non-OECD countries is expected to expand by an average of 2.5% annually. China and India -- the fastest growing non-OECD economies -- will be key contributors to world energy consumption in the future. Over the past decades, their energy consumption as a share of total world energy use has increased significantly. In 1980, China and India together accounted for less than 8% of the world’s total energy consumption; in 2005 their share had grown to 18%. Even stronger growth is projected over the next 25 years, with their combined energy use more than doubling and their share increasing to one-quarter of world energy consumption in 2030. In contrast, the U.S. share of total world energy consumption is projected to contract from 22% in 2005 to about 17% in 2030. Renewable energy and coal are the fastest growing energy sources, with consumption increasing by 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. Projected high prices for oil and natural gas, as well as rising concern about the environmental impacts of fossil fuel use, 4 U.S. Department of Energy 5 Green: Your Place in the Renewable Energy Revolution”, Palgrave-MacMillan, 2008 4 improve prospects for renewable energy sources. Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South America, where several countries have hydropower facilities either planned or under construction. In non-OECD Asia, China’s 18,200-megawatt Three Gorges Dam project is nearing completion at the end of 2008, and the China Yangtze River Three Gorges Project Development Corporation has already announced plans to increase its total installed capacity to 22,400 megawatts. In addition, work continues on the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River (scheduled for completion in 2020 as part of a 14-facility hydropower development plan) and on the country’s third-largest hydroelectric facility, the 6,300-megawatt Longtan project on the 6 Hongshui River. 6 International Energy Outlook 2008, Energy Information Administration 5 II. Export Market Brief A. Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices, including Photovoltaic Cells; Light- Emitting Diodes (HTS 854140) This Market Brief provides an overview of the world market for Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices, including Photovoltaic Cells; Light-Emitting Diodes (HS 854140), based on the latest trade statistics and market research. Export growth: U.S. exports of products in the HS – 854140 category rose from $1.6 billion in 2005 to $2.3 billion in 2008, an increase of 45.3% over the four-year period. Leading Export Markets: Germany is the leading market for U.S. exports of products in the HS 854140 category ($503.2 million in 2008, or 21,3% of total). Other top markets (all valued above $100 million in 2008) were: Mexico (11.1%), Japan (7.3%), Spain (6.4%), Korea (5.9%), Canada (5.2%), Malaysia (5.0%), and France (4.6%). Other significant markets (above $60 million) were: Hong Kong (4.1%), China (3.5%), Singapore (3.1%), Italy (2.8%), Belgium (2.8%), and the UK (2.6%). Fastest Growing Export Markets: The large volume markets showing the highest four-year growth rates for U.S. exports of products in the HS 854140 category over the latest four years (2005-2008 and continuing in 2007-2008) were: Germany, Mexico, Spain, Korea, Canada, Malaysia, France, Singapore, Italy, and Belgium.