Twin Cities Aviation System Technical Report December 2009 Prepared for: Metropolitan Council Prepared by: With: KRAMER aerotek and Biko Associates “The preparation of this document was financed in part through a planning grant from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as approved under the Airport and Airway Improvement Act of 1982. The contents of this report reflect the views of the Consultant, which is responsible for the fact and the accuracy of the data depicted herein, and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA. Acceptance of the report by the FAA does not in any way constitute a commitment on the part of the United States to participate in any development depicted therein, nor does it indicate that the proposed development is environmentally acceptable in accordance with applicable public laws.” Table of Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary Inventory.................................................................................................................................................. ES‐1 Aviation Industry Trends..........................................................................................................................ES‐3 Forecasts .................................................................................................................................................. ES‐4 Peer System Comparisons ....................................................................................................................... ES‐5 Airport Classification................................................................................................................................ ES‐6 System Performance Evaluation.............................................................................................................. ES‐6 Ground Travel and Airport Service Area Evaluation................................................................................ ES‐7 System Changes and Improvements........................................................................................................ ES‐9 System Financing ................................................................................................................................... ES‐10 Chapter One – Inventory Summary of Existing Airport System..........................................................................................................1‐1 Airport Classification..................................................................................................................................1‐3 Inventory Process.......................................................................................................................................1‐6 Airport Inventory Data...............................................................................................................................1‐7 General Airport Information...................................................................................................................1‐7 Airside Facilities ......................................................................................................................................1‐8 Landside Facilities.................................................................................................................................1‐12 Airport Activity Statistics ......................................................................................................................1‐14 Minneapolis Airspace...............................................................................................................................1‐15 Airspace Overview ................................................................................................................................1‐15 Metropolitan Area Airspace .................................................................................................................1‐17 Demographic Characteristics of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region....................................................1‐19 Airport Jurisdictional Authority................................................................................................................1‐23 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................1‐24 Chapter Two – Aviation Industry Trends Current Conditions in the Airline Industry.................................................................................................2‐4 Impact of Fuel Increases ............................................................................................................................2‐5 Outlook for Travel Demand .......................................................................................................................2‐8 Airline Efforts to Increase Revenue ...........................................................................................................2‐9 Capacity Reductions.................................................................................................................................2‐11 Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) ..........................................................................................................................2‐12 Minneapolis‐St. Paul Commercial Service Trends ...................................................................................2‐13 Passenger Trends..................................................................................................................................2‐14 Operations ............................................................................................................................................2‐16 Capacity ................................................................................................................................................2‐17 Markets Served.....................................................................................................................................2‐20 General Aviation Trends ..........................................................................................................................2‐20 i Table of Contents Long Cycle of Change for Personal Flying.............................................................................................2‐21 Active Pilots ..........................................................................................................................................2‐23 Increases in Business Jets and Turboprops ..........................................................................................2‐23 General aviation Operations....................................................................................................................2‐25 Operations at MAC Reliever Airports.......................................................................................................2‐26 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................2‐27 Chapter Three – Forecasts Forecast Approach .....................................................................................................................................3‐4 General Aviation Forecasts ........................................................................................................................3‐4 Current Based Aircraft ............................................................................................................................3‐4 Based Aircraft Forecasts ............................................................................................................................3‐6 MAC Airports ..........................................................................................................................................3‐6 Other Airports.........................................................................................................................................3‐7 Results.....................................................................................................................................................3‐7 General Aviation Operations ..................................................................................................................... 3‐9 Minneapolis‐St. Paul International Commercial Service Forecasts .........................................................3‐12 Background...........................................................................................................................................3‐12 Trends Analysis .....................................................................................................................................3‐12 Passenger Trends..................................................................................................................................3‐13 Domestic Trends................................................................................................................................3‐13 International Traffic...........................................................................................................................3‐14 Trends in Aircraft Operations ...............................................................................................................3‐15 Passenger Forecasts..............................................................................................................................3‐16 Operations Forecast .............................................................................................................................3‐20