University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Great Plains Quarterly Great Plains Studies, Center for 1991 Wyoming Political Surprises In The Late 1980s: Deviating Elections in a Conservative Republican State Cal Clark University of Wyoming Janet Clark University of Wyoming Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/greatplainsquarterly Part of the Other International and Area Studies Commons Clark, Cal and Clark, Janet, "Wyoming Political Surprises In The Late 1980s: Deviating Elections in a Conservative Republican State" (1991). Great Plains Quarterly. 609. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/greatplainsquarterly/609 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Great Plains Studies, Center for at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Great Plains Quarterly by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. WYOMING POLITICAL SURPRISES IN THE LATE 1980s DEVIATING ELECTIONS IN A CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN STATE CAL AND JANET CLARK Wyoming is typical of the states in the upper have not been particularly strong; conse­ Great Plains region (Montana, Kansas, Ne­ quently, important Democratic politicians pe­ braska, and North and South Dakota) in many riodically emerge (e.g., George McGovern in but not all aspects. In socioeconomic terms, the South Dakota or Robert Kerrey in Nebraska) Great Plains are basically agricultural and rural on the basis of idiosyncratic or personal ap­ with fewer prominent urban centers than else­ peals. 1 where in the nation. Politically the region is The political victories of Democrats, Pro­ generally viewed as conservative and Republi­ gressive Republicans, or Populist third parties can, but this image is subject to several impor­ in the Great Plains, therefore, have taken two tant caveats. First, agrarian crises have distinct forms. First, they can represent a "re­ periodically fueled insurgent political move­ alignment" in which the electorate rejects the ments, such as the Populism of the 1890s, Pro­ dominant conservative Republican philosophy, gressivism in the early twentieth century, strong usually in response to economic crisis, for what support for Roosevelt's New Deal, and support have so far been short periods. Second, election for populist or liberal Democrats, especially in losses of conservative Republicans can simply congressional elections, during times of agri­ represent "deviating elections" in which per­ cultural downturn in the postwar period. Sec­ sonal triumphs do not really challenge the dom­ ond, the political party structures and partisan inant position of the majority party. 2 loyalties of the electorate in most of these states Wyoming has a well-deserved reputation as a staunchly conservative and Republican state, and its political hue has changed little over time despite the boom-and-bust nature of its econ­ omy. For example while the effects of populism Cal and Janet Clark are professors of political sci­ at the end of the nineteenth century and the ence at the University of Wyoming. They have New Deal of the 1930s certainly reached the published many studies relating to politics and re­ state, Wyoming was never dominated by pop­ gion. ulist political groups, such as the Nonpartisan [GPQ 11 (Summer 1991): 181-197] League of North Dakota, and did not produce 181 182 GREAT PLAINS QUARTERLY, SUMMER 1991 great Progressive leaders, such as George Norris oil market in the mid-1980s devastated the state's of Nebraska, although the Progressives did elect economy. By 1987 Wyoming's per capita in­ three governors and a U.S. senator between come rank had fallen to 37th, 18 percent below 1910 and 1920. 3 Thus, the rare victories of the national average. Between 1982 and 1987, Democrats running for major state office gen­ total gross state product actually declined by 11 erally appear to have been "deviating elections" percent in current dollars and a whopping 24 that call for special explanations. percent in constant (inflation adjusted) 1982 This paper examines two recent Wyoming dollars, and the state lost 4 percent of its pop­ elections in which Democrats did much better ulation. 4 Moreover, there were few signs of eco­ than expected, the 1986 upset of Pete Simpson nomic recovery as the decade ended. In fact by Mike Sullivan for governor and the very near Wyoming had the slowest growth rate in the upset of incumbent U.S. Senator Malcolm Wal­ nation for the year ending September 1988. 5 lop by John Vinich in 1988. In particular it asks The state's economic collapse clearly affected whether they represent "deviations" from the the citizenry's outlook. In 1980, 44 percent of normal pattern of politics in Wyoming or might the population believed that their personal eco­ constitute harbingers of some type of "political nomic situation was improving compared to 25 realignment." The first section discusses the percent who saw it deteriorating. In 1986 and economic and political context of Wyoming, 1988, however, these percentages were almost the second describes the two campaigns, and exactly reversed (22 percent to 42 percent).6 the third considers why different types of voters Thus, by the late 1980s almost half of Wyo­ supported specific candidates. ming's citizens perceived themselves to be los­ ing out economically. The descent of Wyoming into a recession THE WYOMING CONTEXT might well be expected to have political con­ Wyoming is an essentially rural state. Each sequences. Studies of national politics have of its two largest cities, Cheyenne and Casper, concluded that favorable economic conditions has only about 50,000 inhabitants, and only promote the electoral chances of incumbents one other city has even 25,000. Before the en­ and the majority party while voters are much ergy boom of the mid-1970s, only five cities more likely to "throw the rascals out" during and towns had even 5000 people residing in economic hard times. Whether this economic them. Wyoming now has the smallest popula­ dynamic operates at the state level is more of tion of any state in America and the second an open question. One preliminary study con­ lowest population density. cluded that economic conditions have little im­ The state's economy is primarily based upon pact at the state level and that voters tend to its rich mineral endowment: oil, natural gas, blame the president and his party, rather than coal, trona, and uranium. This dependency on state officials, for economic distress. 7 natural resources has resulted in a tremendous This latter expectation evidently applies to boom-and-bust cycle of rapid development fol­ Wyoming and explains an important charac­ lowed by depression-like conditions. In the lat­ teristic of the state's politics--a remarkably high est cycle, the energy boom brought a 41 percent level of popular support for incumbents regard­ increase in population during the 1970s in con­ less of their party affiliation or the state of the trast to an actual loss of population during the economy. For example, the mid-1980s eco­ 1960s. It also made the state one of the most nomic recession did not produce surprising up­ prosperous in the nation. In 1967 Wyoming sets of previously popular politicians such as ranked 24th in per capita income, which was occurred elsewhere in the Great Plains with the 4 percent below the national average. By 1981 losses of U.S. Senators Mark Andrews of North the state had skyrocketed to 5th, 13 percent Dakota and James Abdnor of South Dakota in above the national average. The collapse of the 1986. WYOMING POLITICAL SURPRISES 183 TABLE 1. ApPROVAL RATINGS OF Top POLITICAL OFFICIALS 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Carter, President, D 27% Reagan, President, R 54% 64% 66% 53% Wallop, Senator, R 75% 47% 60% 59% 47% Simpson, Senator, R 82% 61% 71% 69% 65% Cheney, Representative, R 76% 60% 71% 63% 64% Herschler, Governor, D 77% 63% 65% 63% Sullivan, Governor, D 63% This popularity of incumbents is illustrated the state's depressed condition. Even if this were by Wyoming's approval ratings of incumbent so, however-and Wyomingites actually blamed politicians during the 1980s (Table 1). Except most of their troubles on Arab oil sheiks-the for the Democratic President Jimmy Carter in electorate was certainly not in the mood to re­ 1980, all these approval ratings were quite high, taliate against Republican candidates, as wit­ whether for the Republican congressional del­ nessed by George Bush's two-to-one victory in egation of Richard Cheney, Alan Simpson, and the 1988 presidential election. 9 Malcolm Wallop and the Republican President Wyoming's seeming love affair with incum­ Ronald Reagan or for Democratic Governors bents raises the question of who becomes an Ed Herschler and Mike Sullivan. A significant incumbent. Historically the Republican party drop in all the approval ratings occurred be­ has maintained the strong advantage. Except tween 1980 and 1982, but this was primarily for a brief period during the New Deal, the caused by a change in the wording of the survey Republicans have almost always had majorities question. 8 Since the state's economy was start­ in both houses of the state legislature. Except ing to stagnate at this time, it might be thought for gubernatorial races, in which they have that this drop could represent a response to the triumphed in slightly more than half the elec­ economy, but the advent of real recession later tions, Republicans have won all major national in the decade was accompanied by high ap­ and state offices between 60 percent and 70 proval ratings across the board. Otherwise, most percent of the time. Democrats almost caught of the approval ratings fell in the very strong up to Republicans in registration, party iden­ range of 60 percent to 70 percent with two tification, and state legislative seats during the significant exceptions.