UFC 254 Yas Island, Abu Dhabi Tipped Bets: Robert Whittaker 2 units @ +100 176-132-4 picking sides in 2020. 30-11-1 on level 5 confidence. Picking the card with a level of confidence 1-5 on fighter winning. Winner Level of Best Bets for each bout confidence Nurmagomedov 5 Nurmagomedov ITD -110 -300 (75%) Whittaker 4 Whittaker ML -110 -186 (65%) Volkov 4 Volkov ML -180 -200 (67%) Hawes 4 Hawes ML -235 -186 (65%) Murphy 3 Murphy DEC -125 -150 (60%) Ankalaev 5 Ankalaev KO +115 -300 (75%) Tuivasa 3 Tuivasa KO +175 -122 (55%) Oliveira 3 Oliveira ML -110 -122 (55%) Wood 2 Wood ML +150 +110 (47%) Yakovlev 2 Yakovlev DEC +300 +122 (45%) Alvey 2 Alvey ML +260 +185 (35%) Maverick 4 Maverick SUB +175 -233 (70%) Lines from BetOnline 10/22/20 -335 Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje +275 This fight is without doubt the best fight the division has to offer. Undefeated & reigning champion Nurmagomedov has done nothing but dominate every step of the way thus far. Gaethje rallied his way to the title finishing four in a row after dropping a pair of fights in his early UFC run. On the feet I do believe Gaethje is better than Khabib especially at kicking range. Gaethje could win if he compromises the legs early positioning himself to win a longer fight, and of coarse he could always land a big shot. The key here will be if Khabib can get inside that range into a boxing distance. If Khabib gets into boxing range he does a great job crowding the opposition with strikes & bullying them backwards. Eventually you run into the cage from there he can get ahold of you. When Khabib takes guys down they don’t get up, and over the course of this fight I expect no different. I do think Khabib will get some takedowns stuffed, but the relentlessness coupled with the cardio allow him to put on a pace his opponent can’t sustain. I expect this to be competitive until both of Gaethje’s shoulders hit the mat then it’ll be Khabib time. Nurmagomedov finishes this fight on the floor late in round 3. Confidence in winner: 5 How I lined this fight: Nurmagomedov -300 (75%) Best bets for this bout: Nurmagomedov ITD -110 -110 Robert Whittaker v Jared Cannonier -110 We backed Whittaker a few months ago against Darren Till getting the win. I came away very impressed with Robs performance, and I like him even more in this spot. Jared Cannonier is coming off 3 big wins where he finished the opponents in style. Cannonier has good speed, power, athleticism, and seemingly solid fight i.q. All of those qualities have turned him into a very good fighter. While Jared may have a lot of the intangibles, Rob Whittaker also possesses those in addition to an elite skill set. I believe Rob should soundly out-strike Cannonier using all of his tools which make him unpredictable. Whether its his striking from strange angles or combinations that are very off rhythm, Rob is very dangerous. I question if Jared will be able to maintain a high pace for 3 rounds, and won’t be surprised if Whittaker’s grappling advantage comes into play in the latter part of this fight. My biggest concern for Rob is if Cannonier can land enough of his leg kicks to limit the mobility of Whittaker. If Cannonier can do that the distance management of Whittaker is negated taking away a lot of his skill making it a closer fight contested in the pocket. I think Whittaker is going to actively be moving all fight staying on the outside at kicking range. He will pick his spots to blitz landing on Jared in combination avoiding or blocking most of the returning fire. I won’t be surprised at all if Rob lands a head-kick Jared doesn’t see of big overhand right, but I’m picking Rob to win another decision. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Whittaker -186 (65%) Best bets for this bout: Whittaker Money line +100*** TIPPED BET -180 Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris +155 Volkov gets a much better matchup than his previous bout with Blaydes where he was forced to wrestle all night. Walt Harris prefers to keep the fight on the feet giving Volkov the fight he would prefer. Harris has dangerous hands that Volkov must be wary of, but I just don’t see him winning a striking match against Volkov where he doesn’t finish the fight. Before MMA which hes 31-8 Volkov was a kickboxer, and I think that will be on full display as he keeps the distance landing a variety of kicks. I envision this fight looking very similar to Volkov vs Hardy where hes just a little to sharp within the striking realm. Only being finished by strikes 2 times in 40 fights helps me feel confident Volkov can take the shots of a fresh Harris, and eventually take this fight over. I think Volkov puts Harris away late in round 2 starting it off with a body kick finishing him with a barrage of strikes. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Volkov -200 (67%) Best bets for this bout: Volkov Money line -180 -235 Phil Hawes vs Jacob Malkoun +200 Basically a regional fight on the main card of the biggest fight of the year, horrible card placement by the UFC. Malkoun has 4 fights total hes green, and obviously can evolve a ton when hes at the beginning of his career. Without trying to make a ton of assumptions on a guy with 4 fights, I’m siding with Hawes for what I know about him being a pretty well rounded fighter with ability to finish the fight. Not a strong read on this bout, but I’ll side with Hawes to end this fight before the judges are needed. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Hawes -186 (65%) Best bets for this bout: Hawes ITD -110 -220 Lauren Murphy vs Liliya Shakirova +185 Being a late replacement I didn’t do much tape on Shakirova, but from what I had seen this should be Murphy’s fight to win. I think the size advantage is likely going to play for Murphy who should bully the debuting fighter around. I think lucky Lauren will dominate in the clinch, and cage push her way to a solid decision victory. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Murphy -150 (60%) Best bets for this bout: Murphy DEC -125 +260 Ion Cuteloba v Magomed Ankalaev -310 I find that this is just a very tough stylistic matchup for Ion & outside of him landing a bomb I think he struggles most of the bout. On the feet we know that Ankalaev is a master at range an has proven it with his defensive stats, couple that with Ion only landing at 39% those misses are going to leave MANY countering opportunities right in Ankalaev’s wheelhouse. After Ion struggles to land on the feet consistently an eats a few counters the wrestling attempts should come. I believe that’s where the extensive Greco & Sambo back ground of Ankalaev should be strong enough to cancel out Ions grappling. All of the ineffective offense should discourage & slow down Ion significantly. I believe right around the 8:00 mark of this bout look for Ankalaev to really take this fight over, & from that point on I think it becomes a one sided bout. Round 1 will obviously be the most dangerous while Ion is fresh but assuming the Russian avoids any monster shots it’s a matter of time until the momentum swings in his way. I believe Ankalaev will finish this fight late after getting it to the ground and will pound Ion out in the 3rd round. Ankalaev wins by TKO. Confidence in winner: 5 How I lined this fight: Ankalaev -300 (75%) Best bet for this bout: Ankalaev wins by TKO +115 -110 Stefan Struve v Tai Tuivasa -110 In the heavyweight division we have a bout where both fighters desperately need to get a win. Tai was undefeated, and since experiencing his first loss has now dropped three in a row. Struve on the other hand is not bringing much more momentum being 1-4 in his last 5 bouts. Stylistically I think Struve has the biggest advantage being his grappling skills vs the lack there of with Tai, but only averaging 0.53 takedowns per & not typically looking to wrestle will he be able to get his takedown. Tuivasa on the other hand will have an advantage in the durability department favoring him in the striking realm IMO. I’m expecting heavy leg kicks with constant forward pressure coming from Tai looking to bully Struve. If Struve puts Tai on his back even just once it could be serious danger, but I think his recent training with the boys at AKA going to help level up that TDD just enough to keep Struve off. Give me Tuivasa to bounce back finishing Struve with a highlight knockout. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Tuivasa -122 (55%) Best bets for this bout: Tuivasa KO +175 -175 Casey Kenney vs Nathanial Wood +150 The 135 pound division delivers yet again in what should be an extremely high level fight. We have two up & coming prospects with identical UFC records sitting at 4-2 a piece.