WMD This publication is sponsored by the Issues and Viewpoints in the International Media Defense Threat Reduction Agency Issue 8 September 2006 This is a monthly Inside This Issue . publication intended to provide U.S. Government Critics Urge More Active Arab Role in Iranian Nuclear Negotiations to Counter decision-makers, action Tehran’s Growing Influence, While Learning from Iran’s Example officers, and analysts with As the West awaited Iran’s decision on whether it will suspend sensitive elements of its nuclear program timely and noteworthy in return for a package of incentives, Arab observers appeared to be growing increasingly uneasy. .2 unclassified information Saudi Ballistic Missile Bases: Prospective Target for Militants? on international attitudes On May 30, 2006, high-resolution satellite images of Saudi missile bases and details of Saudi ballistic towards weapons of mass missile capabilities were posted on the Islamist website al-Khayma. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..4 destruction and efforts to curb their proliferation. India’s Agni III Missile Test Makes Few Waves Abroad, More at Home On July 9, 2006, India conducted its first test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, and This product seeks to although the test was unsuccessful, the development of the missile has considerable implications combine the skills and for the region .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..6 capabilities of subject matter specialists with North Korea Missile Exercise Has Political Impacts for South Korea those of foreign language South Korea’s cautious response to the North Korean flight tests of seven ballistic missiles, including experts to gain insights into the long-range Taepodong-II, caused an intense political reaction at home and exacerbated tensions issues that are shaping the in Seoul’s relations with the United States .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..12 proliferation landscape. Beyond No-First-Use: Recent Chinese Discussions of Nuclear Strategy Our goal is to assist our Recent commentary highlights an ongoing debate in China on the issues of nuclear doctrine and readers in planning for the no-first-use policy, with growing and more publicly available discussion of these topics today’s issues and those in the Chinese media and academic literature.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 18 that may be just over the horizon. Russian Government White Paper on WMD Nonproliferation Reveals Both Differences and Similarities with U.S. Approach Dr. William Wynne At the end of June 2006, the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia published, “The Russian DTRA Program Manager Federation and the Situation with Nonproliferation of WMD and Means of Their Delivery: Threats, Assessments, Tasks, and Methods of Implementation.”. .21 Leonard S. Spector Editor-in-Chief Ukraine Rejects Russian Accusations of Missile Technology Control Regime Deputy Director Violation (Washington, DC) The Russian White Paper on Nonproliferation openly accused Ukraine of violating the Missile Monterey Institute Center Technology Control Regime, which limits proliferation of longer-range missiles and relevant for Nonproliferation Studies technologies. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..27 Amanda Grosiak Former Russian Minister of Atomic Energy Yevgeni Adamov Released from Jail Managing Editor Pending Trial Senior National Security On July 21, 2006, the Supreme Court of Russia overturned an earlier decision by the Moscow City Analyst, SAIC Court and ruled that former Minister of Atomic Energy Yevgeni Adamov should be released from jail pending trial for embezzlement. .29 Your opinions about this Putin Seeks to “Replace” Start I Treaty product are vitally important Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on June 27, 2006, that Russia plans to negotiate to us. Please click the a new treaty with the United States that will supersede START I, which expires in 2009.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 31 feedback button to take a Construction of Russia’s First Floating Nuclear Power Plant Raises Potential short electronic survey. Nonproliferation Issues, Opportunities Thank you for your input. In mid-June 2006, the Acting Director General of the Russian government-owned corporation responsible for building and operating the country’s nuclear power plants signed a contract with Feedback the SevMash shipyard in Severodvinsk to construct Russia’s first floating nuclear power station. .. .. .. 34 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors only and do not represent the official policy or position of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. WMD Issues and Viewpoints in the International Media CRITICS URGE MORE ACTIVE as the “policeman of region.” There is also concern that following a rapprochement with the West, Iran ARAB ROLE IN IRANIAN will exert pressure and intimidate many of its smaller NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS Arab neighbors. In the same vein, and in order TO COUNTER TEHRAN’S for Arabs to be the masters of their own destiny, there are calls for Arab governments to transcend GROWING INFLUENCE, WHILE narrow national interests and adopt a more unified LEARNING FROM IRAN’S and assertive stance against Iran’s reemergence, calls which echo appeals of previous decades for EXAMPLE Arabs to unite to face a threat from Persia. During the summit of 2006, as the West awaited Raghda Dergham, a reporter for Al-Hayat, which Iran’s decision on whether it will suspend sensitive is a London-based Arab-language daily distributed elements of its nuclear program in return for a throughout the Middle East, decried the lack of package of incentives, Arab involvement in these Arab observers appeared negotiations, writing: “The to be growing increasingly West is getting close to a uneasy. Their core deal with Iran… and the concern is that the Arab Arabs, where are the states will be little more Arabs?” She urged Arab than spectators as Tehran governments to voice and the West strike a their concerns over the grand bargain that they shaping of the Middle fear will likely reshape the East, in general, and the Middle East and confirm Persian Gulf region, in Iran as the region’s particular, adding that dominant political power. “Gulf countries have the ability to use their Since June 2006, Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani (left) with EU numerous reports and influence emanating from Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana (right) oil and their close political articles in the Arab media Source: www.farsnews.com. have criticized the lack of and security ties to avoid initiative and involvement of Arab governments in the being overlooked in the on-going negotiations, implying Arab governments Iranian issue.... Arab countries should take part have become too complacent about issues that in shaping the region.” [1] Similarily, al- Jazeera’s could profoundly affect their own interests. A popular TV segment “Ma Wara` al-Khabar [Behind common theme of some recent articles is the the News],” commentator Mundir Souleiman, argued suspicion that Iran will reach an agreement with that the position taken by Arab countries should not the United States at the expense of Arab interests. simply follow the United States, but should take While it may be difficult for Western analysts to into account their own strategic interests in terms of comprehend Arab concerns of an Iranian-American their relation’s with Iran. [2] rapprochement in light of the long-standing hostility An op-ed piece in Asharqalawsat, a London- between Washington and Tehran, many Arab based pan-Arab daily published throughout the analysts believe nevertheless that the United States Middle East, struck a similar note, with analyst Salih colluded with Iran in the overthrow of Saddam’s al-Kallab stating, “The Americans and the Iranians nationalist Arab regime in Iraq and that cooperation are about to reach a historic agreement based is continuing between American forces and Shi`a on balancing the interests of the two parties by Iraqi parties closely allied with Iran. rendering unto God what is God’s and unto Caesar Some Arab analysts fear that an Iranian deal what is Caesar’s and redesigning the map of this with the United States will bring the region back to region.” Further explaining the point, he continued, the days of the Shah and Iran’s undisputed military “The West will be compelled to accept the solution hegemony in the area, a time when Iran was viewed offered by the Iranians: to trade the military part of ISSUE 8 - 2 - SEPTEMBER 2006 WMD Issues and Viewpoints in the International Media Iran’s nuclear capabilities for a major regional role number of cards that it can use to put pressure on in the Middle East.” This, he concluded, will result the U.S. especially in Iraq.” [7] It added that Arab in “the functional division of roles between Tehran leaders should refrain from being mere followers and Washington [that] is more than a mere worry of the United States and pursue a more assertive for some Arab countries.” [3] Another piece in Al- posture following Iran’s example. Hayat identified