JANUARY 2018đďĐė Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? EMBARGOED: NOT FOR PUBLICATION, BROADCAST, OR TRANSMISSION UNTIL TUESDAY, JANUARY 9, 2018 AT 4:00 PM EDT (9:00 PM GMT/UTC) © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISSN: 1014-8906 ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1163-0 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1245-3 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1163-0 Cover design: Bill Pragluski (Critical Stages). The cutoff date for the data used in this report was December 19, 2017. Summary of Contents Chapter 1 Global Outlook: Broad-Based Upturn—Will It Last? ...................................... 1 Special Focus 1 With the Benefit of Hindsight: The Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse ......................................................................................................... 49 Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks ......................................................................................... 73 Chapter 3 Building Solid Foundations: How to Promote Potential Growth ................. 157 Special Focus 2 Education Demographics and Global Inequality .......................................... 217 Boxes Box 1.1 Is the global economy turning the corner? ........................................ 8 Box 1.2 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook .............. 24 Box 1.3 Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook .............. 30 Box 2.1.1 Potential growth in East Asia and Pacific ........................................ 82 Box 2.2.1 Potential growth in Europe and Central Asia .................................. 97 Box 2.3.1 Potential growth in Latin America and the Caribbean .................. 111 Box 2.4.1 Potential growth in the Middle East and North Africa .................. 123 Box 2.5.1 Potential growth in South Asia ..................................................... 132 Box 2.6.1 Potential growth in Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................ 144 Box 3.1 What is potential growth? ............................................................. 161 Box 3.2 Understanding the recent productivity slowdown: Facts and explanations .................................................................................. 168 Box 3.3 Moving together? Investment and potential output ...................... 173 Box 3.4 The long shadow of contractions over potential output ................. 178 Box 3.5 Productivity and investment growth during reforms ..................... 188 iii Table of Contents Foreword ...................................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................... xiii Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. xvii Chapter 1 Global Outlook: Broad-Based Upturn—Will It Last? .......................................... 1 Summary ................................................................................................................ 3 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook .............................................. 7 United States .................................................................................................... 7 Euro Area ....................................................................................................... 13 Japan .............................................................................................................. 13 China ............................................................................................................. 14 Global trends ........................................................................................................ 15 Global trade ................................................................................................... 15 Financial markets ........................................................................................... 16 Commodities ................................................................................................. 17 Emerging market and developing economies: Recent developments and outlook .. 19 Recent developments ...................................................................................... 19 Commodity-exporting EMDEs ............................................................... 19 Commodity-importing EMDEs............................................................... 21 Low-income countries ............................................................................. 22 EMDE outlook .............................................................................................. 22 Risks to the outlook .............................................................................................. 28 Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected growth in large economies ...................... 28 Downside risk: Disorderly adjustment of financial market conditions ............ 29 Downside risk: Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks ................................. 33 Downside risk: Increased restrictions to trade ................................................. 34 Downside risk: Sharper-than-expected slowdown in potential growth ............ 34 Region-specific downside risks ........................................................................ 35 Policy challenges ................................................................................................... 35 Challenges in major economies ....................................................................... 35 Challenges in emerging market and developing economies ............................. 38 References ............................................................................................................. 44 Box 1.1 Is the global economy turning the corner? .................................................. 8 Box 1.2 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook ....................... 24 Box 1.3 Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook ........................ 30 v EMBARGOED: NOT FOR PUBLICATION, BROADCAST, OR TRANSMISSION UNTIL TUESDAY, JANUARY 9, 2018 AT 4:00 PM EDT (9:00 PM GMT/UTC) Special Focus 1 With the Benefit of Hindsight: The Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse ..... 49 Introduction ..........................................................................................................