Oxford-Cambridge Expressway North Marston Village Meeting 26th November 2019, 7.30p.m. David Rogers & Olivia Field No Expressway Group Horton-cum-Studley [email protected] From Spring of 2018 Highways Corridor A, the ‘Southern Route’ England talked of three broad corridors, A, B and C for the Ox-Cam Expressway. Only one would be taken forward for route development. Stakeholders had very little influence on Corridor choice. Corridor B Corridor C, the ‘Northern Route’ Corridor AnnouncedCorridor A, the ‘Southern Route’ On September 12th last year Highways England announced a modified Corridor B for further study. Corridor B Corridor C, the ‘Northern Route’ Corridor B before September 12th Corridor B after September 12th Corridor B after September 12th East West Rail (not exact) North Marston Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Highways England’s Time Table Major Project Milestones & Lifecycle Options Phase Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Bicester Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Horton-cum-Studley M40 OXFORD M40, Junction 8A Corridor B boundary Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Bicester Route B3 From the Corridor Assessment Report, Appendix G. Horton-cum-Studley M40 OXFORD M40, Junction 8A Corridor B boundary Route B1 M40, Junction 9 Bicester Route B3 M40, NEW junction Horton-cum-Studley M40 OXFORD M40, Junction 8A Corridor B boundary Expressway: alternative routes BUCKINGHAM BLETCHLEY BICESTER North Marston Expressway: alternative routes BUCKINGHAM BLETCHLEY BICESTER North Marston Expressway: alternative routes around North Marston North Marston Expressway: alternative routes around North Marston The expressway ‘foot-print’ will spread ±4kms North Marston Expressway: alternative routes around North Marston North Marston Expressway: alternative routes around North Marston North Marston North Marston and Houses? Even without the Expressway, Buckinghamshire is set to grow Buckinghamshire census 2013/16 Aylesbury Vale: 72,263 households (approx. houses) 180,657 people (2.5 pphh) (2013) Milton Keynes: 109,062 households (approx. houses) 272,655 people (2.5 pphh) (2016) Buckinghamshire census 2013/16 Aylesbury Vale: 72,263 households (approx. houses) 180,657 people (2.5 pphh) (2013) Milton Keynes: 109,062 households (approx. houses) 272,655 people (2.5 pphh) (2016) Buckinghamshire census 2013/16 Aylesbury Vale: 72,263 households (approx. houses) 180,657 people (2.5 pphh) (2013) MiltonMilton Keynes: Keynes 109,062 households (approx. 26,500 houses)2031 272,655 people (2.5 pphh) (2016) Buckinghamshire census 2013/16 Aylesbury Vale: 72,263 households (approx. houses) 180,657 people (2.5 pphh) (2013) MiltonMilton Keynes: Keynes 109,062 households (approx. 26,500 houses)2031 272,655 people (2.5 pphh) (2016) i.e. approx 37% growth in Aylesbury Vale 2013 – 2033 and 24% growth in Milton Keynes 2016-2031 (ONS projected growth for England is 16% by 2050) Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Currently planned homes Houses across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Currently planned homes London commuter Houseshomes across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Currently planned homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes London commuter Houseshomes across the ‘Arc’ The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Currently planned homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes London commuter Houseshomes across the ‘Arc’ Bucks’ proportionate share of 170,000 expressway houses would be 82,000 The Ox-Cam Arc’s ‘Transformational Scenario’ Currently planned homes Additional Ox-Cam ‘Arc’ homes London commuter Houseshomes across the ‘Arc’ Bucks’ proportionate share of 170,000 expressway houses would be 82,000 So, even with no more Local Plan growth, Aylesbury Vale and MK will grow by 65% by 2050 (national average 16% by 2050) OptionsHouses B1/B3, 37,000 around workers/22,000 Expressway new houses junctions S. of Bletchley North Marston Options B1/B3, 37,000 workers/22,000 new houses S. of Bletchley North Marston North Marston Options B1/B3, 37,000 workers/22,000 new houses S. of Bletchley North Marston North Marston That’s 50,700 people (Bletchley has 15,313 2011 figure ) Options B1/B3, 37,000 workers/22,000 new houses S. of Bletchley North Marston 4km radius North Marston That’s 50,700 people (Bletchley has 15,313 2011 figure ) Option B3, 46,000 workers/27,000 new houses nr. Twyford North Marston Option B3, 46,000 workers/27,000 new houses nr. Twyford North Marston North Marston Option B3, 46,000 workers/27,000 new houses nr. Twyford North Marston North Marston That’s 63,400 people (Bicester has 32,789 2017 figure ) Option B3, 46,000 workers/27,000 new houses nr. Twyford 4km radius North Marston North Marston That’s 63,400 people (Bicester has 32,789 2017 figure ) ..and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 82,000 workers, 65,000 houses North Marston ..and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 82,000 workers, 65,000 houses North Marston ..and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 82,000 workers, 65,000 houses North Marston That’s 150,000 people (Oxford City has 154,600 2017 figure ) ..and the same again ‘East of Oakley’… 82,000 workers, 65,000 houses 4km radius North Marston That’s 150,000 people (Oxford City has 154,600 2017 figure ) Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). The NIC Report (5th Studio SQW) says there will be 82,000 new houses in Aylesbury Vale + MK (the ‘transformational growth’ figure). Along route B3 in Buckinghamshire, the Expressway will support up to 100,787 houses (235,000 people). The NIC Report (5th Studio SQW) says there will be 82,000 new houses in Aylesbury Vale + MK (the ‘transformational growth’ figure). Therefore all the aspirational growth associated with the expressway in AVDC and MK could be accommodated near expressway junctions. Buckinghamshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Buckinghamshire's total population since the Domesday book 1086 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 Total Population Total 100,000 Domesday, 1086. 30,162 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD Buckinghamshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Buckinghamshire's total population since the Domesday book 1086 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Last census, 2011. 400,000 505,283 people 300,000 200,000 Total Population Population Total Total 100,000 Domesday, 1086. 30,162 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD Buckinghamshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Buckinghamshire's total population since the Domesday book 1086 900,000 All Local Plans to mid 2030s 2050 target, 800,000 628,170 people 820,000 people 700,000 600,000 500,000 Last census, 2011. 400,000 505,283 people 300,000 200,000 Total Population Population Population Total Total Total 100,000 Domesday, 1086. 30,162 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD Buckinghamshire’s past, and proposed growth to 2050 Buckinghamshire's total population since the Domesday book 1086 900,000 All Local Plans to mid 2030s 2050 target, 800,000 628,170 people 820,000 people 700,000 600,000 500,000 Last census, 2011. 400,000 505,283 people 300,000 200,000 Total Population Population Population Total Total Total 100,000 Domesday, 1086. 30,162 people 0 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Year, AD Are there really no limits to growth? All along the ‘Arc’, the story is the same Highways England proposes 360,000 new houses along the Expressway Cambridge North Marston Oxford All along the ‘Arc’, the story is the same Highways England proposes 360,000 new houses along the Expressway …that still leaves 193,000 new Expressway-unlocked houses elsewhere. Cambridge North Marston Oxford Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight TENtec Freight Network BELFAST HELSINKI SEVILLE ATHENS = North Sea – Mediterranean TENtec Trans European Transport Network = Other Core Network Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight TENtec Freight Network Felixstowe BELFAST HELSINKI SouthamptonSEVILLE ATHENS London = North Sea – Mediterranean TENtec Trans European Transport Network = Other Core Network Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight TENtec Freight Network Felixstowe BELFAST HELSINKI The ‘Missing Link’ SouthamptonSEVILLE ATHENS London = North Sea – Mediterranean TENtec Trans European Transport Network = Other Core Network Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight HGV movements will increase along the RED routes and decrease along the BLUE routes From Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Strategic Study: Stage 3 report, p. 47. November 2016 Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight BEDFORD MILTON KEYNES LUTON North Marston OXFORD LONDON HGV movements will increase along the RED routes and decrease along the BLUE routes From Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Strategic Study: Stage 3 report, p. 47. November 2016 Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight BEDFORD MILTON KEYNES TheThe “Missing Expressway Link” i.e. the Expressway! LUTON North Marston OXFORD LONDON HGV movements will increase along the RED routes and decrease along the BLUE routes From Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Strategic Study: Stage 3 report, p. 47. November 2016 Cars, Houses, People……. and Freight BEDFORD MILTON KEYNES TheThe “Missing Expressway Link” i.e. the Expressway! LUTON North Marston OXFORD LONDON HGV movements will increase along the RED routes and decrease along the BLUE routes From Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Strategic Study: Stage 3 report, p.