eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Katia Information from NHC Advisory 13, 4:00 PM CDT Fri September 8, 2017 Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible prior to landfall, followed by rapid weakening. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 120 miles SE of Tampico, Mexico Late Fri or early Sat on Speed: (Category 2) Land: 125 miles N of Veracruz, Mexico Est. Time & Region: Mexico near Martinez de Min Central Pressure: 972 mb Coordinates: 21.0 N, 96.5 W la Torre Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90-110 mph 70 miles Bearing/Speed: WSW or 250 degrees at 7MPH Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Category 1-2) Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Katia making landfall on Mexico by early Saturday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Katia’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. ■ Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by later today. Forecast Track for Hurricane Katia Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Katia © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. 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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning - meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area – is in effect for Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde. Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco, South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Katia Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Jose 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/08/17) 11 6 3 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 TS Irma TS Harvey 8 (1/1/16 – 09/08/17) 8 4 1 2016 year to date TS Gert HU Katia 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin TS Emily Hu Jose 4 TS Don HU Irma 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 HU Harvey TS Cindy Major HU Jose 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Katia is the eleventh named storm and sixth hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Hurricane Season. Last year saw eight named storms four hurricanes and one occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that major hurricane by September 8. Katia became the season’s eleventh named storm on September 6. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Trop-Strom-Force Winds Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa by tomorrow morning. The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the Environmental conditions are only expected to support gradual development of this time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also system through early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or Atlantic Ocean. exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .