The Changing Demography of Scotland Kirsty MacLachlan National Records of Scotland Scotland’s population, 1855 to 2009 6 5 4 3 2 People(millions) 1 0 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 Year 120 Births 100 Deaths 80 Births and deaths in Scotland, 1951 to 2009 60 40 Persons(thousands) 20 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Year Changes to the population Ageing Migration Ageing over the past 10 years, 1999-2009 1,400,000 -10% 1999 2009 1,200,000 +13% -8% +6% 1,000,000 +12% 800,000 600,000 +14% Persons ('000s) Persons 400,000 200,000 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & Over Age Projected ageing over the next 25 years, 2008-2033 2008 2033 1,200,000 -5% -7% +33% -2% -7% 1,000,000 800,000 +84% 600,000 400,000 Persons ('000s) Persons 200,000 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & Over Age Variant population projections 6,000 5,800 High mig High fertility 5,600 High LE Principal Low LE 5,400 Low fertility Low mig 5,200 Zero mig Persons (thousands) Persons 5,000 4,800 4,600 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year Very elderly population rising quickly 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Centenarians (per 100,000) (per Centenarians 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1983-2033 90 Projected 85 Males Females 80 75 70 Age 65 60 55 50 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year Age structure in 2009 100% 80% 60% 40% Percentage population of 20% 0% East Lothian SCOTLAND West Lothian Glasgow City Shetland Islands City of Edinburgh Dumfries & Galloway Children Working Age Pensionable Age Area Age structure in 2009 and 2033 100% 80% 60% 40% Percentage population of 20% 0% East Lothian SCOTLAND West Lothian Glasgow City Shetland Islands City of Edinburgh Dumfries & Galloway Children Working Age Pensionable Age Area 2033 data is based on 2008-based population projections Ageing effect – projected dependency ratio 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Children 282 274 274 278 272 272 Pension age 318 320 318 345 345 404 Total Dependants 596 594 593 623 632 676 Dependency ratio 800 Children Pensioners 700 Total Dependants 600 500 400 300 200 Dependents per 1,000 working age working 1,000 per Dependents 100 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year Estimated net migration in Scotland, 1951-2009 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Persons ('000s) Persons -20 -30 -40 -50 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Year to 30 June Origin of in-migrants to Scotland 70,000 From rest of UK 60,000 From overseas 50,000 40,000 30,000 Persons Persons 20,000 10,000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Age profile of migrants 10,000 In 8,000 Out 6,000 Net 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 Average annual migrants 2007-2009 migrants Averageannual -6,000 -8,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 & Age over 70 Overseas 60 Rest of UK Within Scotland 50 40 Rate of in 30 20 In-migrants per In-migrants 1,000 population 10 -migration to council areas 0 Fife Stirling Moray Angus Falkirk Highland Eilean Siar Midlothian Inverclyde GlasgowDundee City CityArgyll & Bute East Lothian West Lothian Renfrewshire Aberdeen City East AyrshireNorth Ayrshire Perth & Kinross AberdeenshireOrkney Islands South Ayrshire City of Edinburgh Scottish Borders Shetland Islands ClackmannanshireEast Renfrewshire South LanarkshireNorth Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & GallowayWest Dunbartonshire Rate of in-migration to council areas 70 Overseas 60 Rest of UK Within Scotland 50 40 30 20 In-migrants per In-migrants 1,000 population 10 0 Aberdeen City Glasgow City City of Edinburgh 140 120 100 80 60 Turnover of migrants, 2008/09 40 Turnover per 1,000 population 20 0 Fife Stirling Moray Angus Falkirk Highland Eilean Siar Midlothian Inverclyde GlasgowDundee CityArgyll City & Bute East Lothian West Lothian RenfrewshireEast Ayrshire Aberdeen City OrkneyAberdeenshire Islands South Ayrshire North Ayrshire PerthScottish & Kinross Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of ClackmannanshireEast Renfrewshire South LanarkshireNorth Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & GallowayWest Dunbartonshire Origin of migrants to Scotland 35 European Union 30 EU Accession States Other European Africa 25 Asia and Middle East The Americas 20 Australasia and Oceania EU Accession States 15 Registrations (thousands) 10 Asia and Middle East European Union 5 Africa The Americas Australasia and Oceania Other European 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Households and Housing • In 1991 there were 2.04 million households in Scotland. • By 2033, the number of households is projected to increase to 2.8 million. • Most of the increase is the result of an ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the overall population. Scotland’s Households 1991 to 2033 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Number of Households 500,000 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Year Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2008 to 2033 • The largest projected percentage increases are in the east of Scotland. • In contrast, Inverclyde has a projected decrease of 5 per cent. Projected Household Composition for 2008 1 adult, 1 child 1 adult, 2+ children 2 adults 3 + person 795,890 households 3+ adults 2 person households All Households 694,570 2,331,250 2+ adults, 1+ children 1 adult male 840,790 1 person households 1 adult female Changes in household types 1,400,000 1981 2008 1,200,000 2033 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 Number of households of Number 200,000 0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with 2+ adults with 3+ adults children children Type of household Changes in age of head of household 800,000 1981 2008 700,000 2033 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Number of households 200,000 100,000 0 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+ Age of head of household Variant Household Projections, 2008 to 2033 3,000,000 High Migration Principal 2,900,000 Low Migration Zero Migration 2001 headships 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 Households 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year One-adult households, by level of deprivation, 2009 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Percentage of dwellings in the area the in dwellings Percentage of 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived One-adult households, by urban rural classification, 2009 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Percentage of dwellings in the area the in dwellings Percentage of 5% 0% Large urban Other urban Accessible Remote small Accessible Remote rural areas areas small towns towns rural areas areas Dwelling type, by level of deprivation, 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Flats Terraced 50% Semi-detached Detached 40% Unknown 30% 20% Percentage of dwellings in the area the in dwellings Percentage of 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived Dwelling type, by urban-rural classification, 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% Flats 60% Terraced 50% Semi-detached Detached 40% Unknown 30% 20% Percentage of dwellings in the area the in dwellings Percentage of 10% 0% Large Other Accessible Remote Accessible Remote urban urban small small rural areas rural areas areas areas towns towns Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation, 2009 5% % Vacant 4% % Second homes 3% 2% 1% Percentage of dwellings in the areadwellingsPercentageof in the 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban-rural classification, 2009 8% % Vacant 7% % Second homes 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Percentage of dwellings in the area 1% 0% Large urban Other urban Accessible Remote small Accessible Remote rural areas areas small towns towns rural areas areas The percentage of dwellings which are second homes in each ‘data zone’ in 2009. Some remote rural areas have the highest proportions of second homes, particularly parts of the west coast and some of the islands, Highland Perthshire and the area around the Cairngorms National Park. The percentage of vacant dwellings in each ‘data zone’ in 2009. Across Scotland as a whole, 2.9 % of dwellings are vacant. Remote rural areas have higher percentages of vacant dwellings, 4.5 % of all dwellings in these areas. Demography statistics on GROS website: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/index.html Comments and suggestions to Kirsty MacLachlan: [email protected] 0131 314 4242 Demography Division National Records of Scotland.