Does a Loss or a Win Affect Who Tunes In? Political Advantage, Disadvantage, and Media Consumption By Allison M.N. Archer Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Vanderbilt University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Political Science August 11, 2017 Nashville, Tennessee Approved: Joshua D. Clinton, Ph.D. Cindy D. Kam, Ph.D. John G. Geer, Ph.D. Jennifer Jerit, Ph.D. Copyright © 2017 by Allison M.N. Archer All Rights Reserved ii To my parents, sister, brother, and Joshua for their unwavering support and unconditional love. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am grateful to my advisors, Cindy Kam and Josh Clinton, for their mentorship, support, and belief in me throughout the years. Cindy – you are a role model to me in so many ways. Thank you for taking me under your wing from day one and for being an incredible mentor. The time you have invested in me and my work is truly above and beyond what I could have hoped for from a mentor. Even more, your advice and kindness over the years have not only made me a better scholar, but also a better person. Josh – thank you for being a great source of encouragement and advice. I am grateful for your unceasing willingness to answer my questions and share your wisdom. I am especially thankful for your enthusiasm for research and studying the media in particular— something that has been contagious throughout grad school and a great help during stressful times. I would also like to thank the two other members of my committee, John Geer and Jennifer Jerit. You have been so gracious in giving your time and feedback to help improve my project. To the faculty in the Political Science department, I am so grateful to have worked with and learned from you. You have created such a wonderful and supportive community of scholars. And to my friends in and out of the department, thank you for your support and encouragement over the years. Finally, I want to thank my family for seeing me through this entire journey. You have always extended such grace towards me and selflessly allowed me to follow my dreams even if it took me far away from Texas. From quizzing me before tests in middle school to sending notes of encouragement during comp exams, you never ceased to love and support me. I am so grateful for that. And to Joshua Eubanks, thank you for walking with me in the hard times, celebrating with me in the good, and loving me always. Being your partner in life is simply the best. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant Numbers 0909667 and 1445197. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION ..................................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................. vii LIST OF FIGURES..............................................................................................................................viii Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Political Advantage, Disadvantage, and the Demand for Partisan News .................................. 7 Connecting the Political Environment to Partisan Media Demand ...................................... 8 Advantage, Disadvantage, and Local Partisan Papers’ Circulations .................................. 13 A Case Study of Florida Papers .......................................................................... 14 An Analysis of All Local, Daily Partisan Newspaper Circulations.................... 20 All Eyes on the White House .............................................................................................. 29 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 32 3. The Individual-Level Effects of Political Advantage and Disadvantage on Political Engagement.............................................................................................................................. 36 The Political Context, Emotions, and Engagement ............................................................ 38 Study 1: Establishing the Effects of Advantage and Disadvantage .................................... 42 Results ................................................................................................................ 47 Study 2: Breaking Down Effects by Emotions ................................................................... 52 Results ................................................................................................................ 55 Anger, Anxiety, Enthusiasm, and Political Engagement .................................... 58 Willingness to Learn More About Politics ............................................ 59 Willingness to Vote for Your Party ....................................................... 63 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 65 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 68 4. A Case Study: Political Advantage and Disadvantage in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election .................................................................................................................................... 70 Political Advantage, Disadvantage, and Engagement ........................................................ 71 Analyses .............................................................................................................................. 79 Pre-Election Campaign Interest .......................................................................... 79 Post-Election Values Regarding Interest ............................................................ 87 Google Trends .................................................................................................... 93 Post-Election Political Participation and Beliefs ................................................ 98 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 102 5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 105 v Appendix ............................................................................................................................................. 111 A. Additional Tables and Figures for Chapter 2 ............................................................... 111 B. Additional Tables and Figures for Chapter 3 ............................................................... 120 C. Additional Tables for Chapter 4 ................................................................................... 145 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................... 147 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Political Environment and Demand for Partisan Newspapers in Tampa Bay, 1932-2014 ........................................................................................................................... 19 2. Political Environment and Demand for All Local Partisan Newspapers, 1932-2004 ........ 26 3. Differential Effects of the Political Environment on Demand for Partisan Newspapers, 1932-2004 ...................................................................................................... 31 4. Summary Statistics for Dependent Variables ..................................................................... 48 5. Effects of Advantage and Disadvantage ............................................................................. 49 6. Mean Levels of Emotion Produced by Each Treatment ..................................................... 57 7. Effect of Each Treatment on Levels of Emotions ............................................................... 58 8. Willingness to Learn More ................................................................................................. 60 9. Willingness to Vote and Support One’s Party .................................................................... 65 10. Predict Candidate Win ........................................................................................................ 79 11. Campaign Interest ............................................................................................................... 84 12. Post-Election Values ........................................................................................................... 89 13. Post-Election Participation ................................................................................................ 100 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Relationship Between GOP Vote Margin and Relative Changes in Circulations for Tampa Bay Partisan Papers................................................................................................. 18 2. Relationship Between GOP Vote Margin and Relative Changes in Circulations for All Local Partisan Papers ...................................................................................................