London Borough of Brent BRENT RETAIL NEED & CAPACITY STUDY Final Report February 2006 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e [email protected] w www.tymconsult.com . RTP Job Number - P1616 . CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 1 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 1 The Study Aims ................................................................................................................ 1 The Study Approach......................................................................................................... 2 Report Structure ............................................................................................................... 4 2 POLICY CONTEXT...................................................................................................... 5 National Guidance ............................................................................................................ 5 London Plan...................................................................................................................... 6 Draft West London Sub-Regional Development Framework........................................... 7 LB Brent Unitary Development Plan................................................................................. 8 Conclusion........................................................................................................................ 9 3 EXISTING SURVEY BASE......................................................................................... 11 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 11 Existing Survey Base...................................................................................................... 11 4 WEMBLEY................................................................................................................. 15 Overview......................................................................................................................... 15 Summary of Shoppers’ Survey Findings........................................................................ 16 Summary of Healthcheck Findings................................................................................. 17 Potential Development Opportunity Sites ...................................................................... 23 5 KILBURN, HARLESDEN & WILLESDEN GREEN ...................................................... 25 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 25 Kilburn............................................................................................................................. 25 Harlesden ....................................................................................................................... 28 Willesden Green ............................................................................................................. 32 6 OTHER DISTRICT CENTRES ................................................................................... 37 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 37 Burnt Oak........................................................................................................................ 37 Cricklewood .................................................................................................................... 38 Ealing Road .................................................................................................................... 38 Kenton ............................................................................................................................ 39 Kingsbury........................................................................................................................ 39 Wembley Park ................................................................................................................ 40 Colindale......................................................................................................................... 41 Kensal Rise..................................................................................................................... 41 Neasden ......................................................................................................................... 42 Preston Road.................................................................................................................. 42 Queens Park................................................................................................................... 43 Sudbury .......................................................................................................................... 43 7 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED ANALYSIS ............................................................... 45 Introduction & Assumptions............................................................................................ 45 Spending Pattern in 2003............................................................................................... 46 Population of LB Brent.................................................................................................... 46 Expenditure of LB Brent Residents ................................................................................ 47 Retail Capacity ............................................................................................................... 47 Floorspace Requirements .............................................................................................. 52 8 CAPACITY & OPPORTUNITY SITES ........................................................................ 57 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 57 Development Opportunity Sites...................................................................................... 58 9 RETAIL STRATEGY & POLICY OPTIONS................................................................. 67 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 67 Suggested Basis for Revised Borough Wide Retail Policies ......................................... 67 Suggested Centre Specific Retail Policies..................................................................... 71 Need for Updated Household Survey............................................................................. 78 APPENDICIES 1. National Retail Trends 2. Technical Note on Retail Capacity 3. Household Survey Results 4. Comparison Need Tabulations 5. Convenience Need Tabulations Brent Retail Need and Capacity Study Final Report 1 INTRODUCTION Introduction 1.1 In June 2005 the London Borough of Brent (LB Brent) commissioned Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) to carry out a borough-wide retail need and capacity study. The study provides background information for the emerging Local Development Framework and informs town centre enhancement and management strategies for Wembley, Harlesden and Willesden Green. 1.2 In addition to the above, the study will enable LB Brent to respond to the emerging West London Sub-Regional Development Framework. The draft framework of June 2005 makes a number of estimates about the retail capacity of the borough and the future role of the centres in its retail hierarchy. This study assesses those estimates. 1.3 LB Brent already has a wide range of recent and relatively retail survey data, including: § A borough-wide Household Shopping Survey (2003); § A Town Centre Healthcheck Report (2003) of all the main and district centres in the borough; § A Shoppers Survey (2005) of Wembley, Harlesden and Willesden Green; and § A Wembley Retail Capacity Study (2001) undertaken by Driver Jonas; 1.4 In addition, retail assessments have been prepared in support of planning applications in and around Wembley town centre and for development at Wembley Stadium. 1.5 On this basis, additional data has been sourced for this study but the latter primarily focuses on interpreting the existing retail data to provide a framework to guide retail development over the next decade. In particular, the study reconsiders the capacity of Wembley town centre following retail planning approvals and suggests a re- assessment of its strategy. The Study Aims 1.6 LB Brent’s study brief comprises two aims: i) To identify the demand and capacity in terms of quality, quantity, type, and sites for additional retail development for convenience and comparison goods within the borough generally; and ii) To re-assess in particular, the retail capacity of, and strategy for, Wembley town centre in the light of the retail and leisure floorspace permitted within Wembley Stadium precinct, other developments in the locality, and key mixed-use opportunity sites within the town centre. 1.7 There are five main objectives of the study: i) To undertake a qualitative analysis of the existing structure and hierarchy of town centres within Brent, with a particular focus on new Wembley. ii) To establish the current and potential catchment areas of the major and main district town centres. iii) To undertake a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the