Three Essays on Flows of Foreign Students in International Relations by Yongjae Lee A Dissertation submitted to the Graduate School-Newark Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of the Division of Global Affairs Graduate Program in written under the direction of Jun Xiang and approved by ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ Newark, New Jersey October, 2019 Copyright page: [2019] Yongjae Lee ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Three Essays on Flows of Foreign Students in International Relations By Yongjae Lee Dissertation Director: Xiang Jun As international higher education has become more popular, foreign students have played increasingly important roles in fields such as economics and public diplomacy. However, current literature does not examine the function of such students through empirical analysis, nor consider their effects upon both international security and economies. This work will demonstrate the instrumental role that foreign students play in the globalized world, and particularly in the power transition of soft power between the U.S. and China, military conflicts, and trade. By reviewing data from students from more than 175 countries, who studied in the U.S. or China, the paper will examine the students’ influence on such issues as: soft power gaps, resolution of military disputes, and increasing bi-lateral trade. After analyzing the available data, the conclusion is that the power transition between the U.S. and China in hard power variables military, economic globalization, materials and goods) may reduce the gap of soft power between them, and that international students contribute significantly to international peace and economic collaboration. ii Acknowledgements All of the achievements that I have made during my years as a Ph.D. student, including the writing of this dissertation, would have been impossible without the help and support of my family, professors, and colleagues. Although it can be difficult to put such thoughts and feelings into words, I would like to expressly thank the following people listed below, and note that any errors remaining in this dissertation are exclusively my own. First and foremost, I would like to express my appreciation to my committee members, whom I feel privileged to have learned from; especially my supervisor, Dr. Jun Xiang. He provided the original concept behind the dissertation, and ongoing constructive advice and motivation during weekly meetings. In addition to academic support, Dr. Xiang has shown concern and given guidance concerning my family, and the strain that graduate studies can place on a family. He is the best teacher that I have ever had the privilege to study with. Completing the dissertation would not have been possible without the useful advice and critical comments of the other members of my dissertation committee, namely Dr. Carolos Seiglie, and Dr. Ajai Gaur. Dr. Felix Martin was also instrumental in introducing the Division of Global Affairs at Rutgers University to me, and gave valuable and detailed advice regarding the concepts and theories of International Relations, which helped me to conduct more concrete and professional research. In addition to my committee, I would like to thank several other professors and members of the Division of Global Affairs the whose input was helpful in completing my iii dissertation: Dr. Weihao Huang, my senior, for his input on data analysis and statistics, Ms. Ann Martin, former associate director of the Division of Global Affairs, for the valuable opportunity to pursue the doctoral degree by providing a teaching assistantship, Ms. Desiree Gordon, for providing administrative support and encouragement, Dr.’s Thomas Breslin and Mohiaddin Mesbahi, for their invaluable insights into Chinese foreign policy and international security, as well as support and encouragement in academic pursuits. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my family. My wife Suhyeon Kwon, above all others, has supported me, and made great personal sacrifices to help me complete my Ph.D.; always with a smile. I cannot thank you enough, Suhyeon. My son, Seungjae Lee, never complained about the time or resources needed for my studies, but was a great cheerleader and source of emotional support to me. My parents, Hakdong Lee and Jongim Park, have provided endless financial and psychological support, throughout all of my studies, for which I am deeply grateful, as well as Hongsik Kwon and Buseon Son, my in-laws, who were greatly appreciated for their emotional and financial support during difficult times that arose in the course of my studies. Yongkwan Lee, my brother, and Geummi Jeong, my sister-in-law, are also deserving of my thanks, as they generously made sacrifices within their own lives in order to help when I needed it; thank you both. And finally, Jonghyeok Lee and Sueon Kwon, my brother and sister-in-law, I would like to thank you for your unfailing support and advice to my wife and I throughout the sometimes troubling times of Ph.D. life. iv Table of Contents Abstract …………………………………………………………………...………………ii Acknowledgement ……………………………………………………………………… iii Table of Contents ..………………………………………………………………………. v List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………….. viii 1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………... 1 2 Chapter One: Soft Power and Power Transition Pacts on Interstate Disputes ….. 4 2.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………. 4 2.2 Literature Review …………………………………………………………......….. 6 2.2.1 Soft Power ….......………………………………………………………….... 6 2.2.2 Power Transition Between the U.S. And China .......……………………….. 8 2.2.2.1 Peaceful Power Transition …………………………………………….. 8 2.2.2.2 Radical Power Transition …………………………………………….. 10 2.2.2.3 Status Quo ……………………………………………………………. 11 2.3 Theory ………………………………………………………………………..…. 13 2.4 Hypotheses …………………………………………………………………….... 16 2.5 Methodology ……………………..……………………………………………... 18 2.5.1 The Unit of Analysis ……...……………………………………………….. 18 2.5.2 Dependent Variable ………………………………………...……...……… 18 2.5.3 Independent Variable ..…………………………………..………………… 20 2.5.4 Control Variables …………………………………………...……………... 21 2.6 Empirical Result …..………………...………………………………………………….. 24 2.7 Conclusion …………………………….....…………………………………………….. 31 v 3 Chapter Two: Foreign Students and Militarized International Disputes …….… 35 3.1 Introduction ……………..………………………………………………………. 35 3.2 Literature Review ……..………………………………………………………… 36 3.3 Theory and Hypotheses …………………..……………………………………... 41 3.3.1 Incomplete and Asymmetric Information ………………………...……….. 41 3.3.2 Effective Communication: Mediation ……………………..……………… 43 3.3.3 Sharing Identity …………………………………………...……………….. 45 3.3.3.1 Democratic peace theory ……………………………………………... 45 3.3.3.2 Capitalist peace theory ……………………………………………….. 48 3.4 Methodology ……..……………………………………………………………... 51 3.4.1 Unit of Analysis ...…………………………………………………………. 51 3.4.2 Dependent Variable ……………………………………………...………... 51 3.4.3 Independent Variable …………………………………………...…………. 52 3.4.4 Control Variable …..……………………………………………...………... 53 3.5 Empirical Result ………………..…………………...………………………………….. 56 3.6 Conclusion …………………..………………………………………………….. 67 4 Chapter Three: Foreign Students and International Economic Integration (Trade)………………………………………………………………………………. 70 4.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………... 70 4.2 Literature Review ……………………………………………………………….. 71 4.3 Theory and Hypothesis ……..…………………………………………………... 73 4.3.1 Social Capital Theory ………………………...…………………………… 73 4.4 Methodology ……………………………………..……………………………... 75 vi 4.4.1 Unit of Analysis ………………………………………...…………………. 75 4.4.2 Dependent Variable ……………………………………………………….. 75 4.4.3 Independent Variable ……………………...………………………………. 76 4.4.4 Control Variable .…………………………………………………………... 77 4.5 Empirical Result …..…………………………………………………………….. 80 4.6 Conclusion ……..……………………………………………………………….. 86 5. Conclusion ….………………………………………………………………………. 88 Bibliography ………………..……………………………………………………………. 91 Appendix ……...………………………………………………………………………. 104 vii List of Tables 2.1. Foreign Student Inflows to the U.S. and USSR/Russia ……………..…………… 104 2.2. Summary Statistics ……………………………………………………………….. 105 2.3. Statistical Results for the Ratio of Foreign Students ………………..…………… 106 2.4. Statistical Results of the Ratio of Foreign Students in Degree Programs ….……. 112 3.1. Summary statistics …………………………………………………...…………... 118 3.2. Statistical Results of Interstate Military Conflicts ………………………..……… 119 4.1. Summary statistics …………………………………………...…………………... 125 4.2. Statistical Results of Trade ………………………………………..……………... 126 viii - 1 - Introduction As higher education has been globalized, international higher education has played an essential role in various fields, such as an economy and public diplomacy. However, international students have not been concentrated in International Relations academia as a significant factor to affect international relations. This dissertation examines how international student flows play an important role to international relations in the globalized world, such as the power transition between the U.S. and China in soft power, interstate military conflicts, and international economic integration. The research question is whether or not international student flows play a significant role in the relations between their home and host countries. To be specific, whether or not the variation of the gap of the hard power between the U.S. and China influence foreign