Assessment of the PV Self-Consumption Impact on the Portuguese Scenario within the European Energy Legislative Scheme Cristina Milagros Herce Villar Thesis to obtain the Master of Science Degree in Energy Engineering and Management Supervisors: Prof. Carlos Augusto Santos Silva Dra. Maria João Rodrigues Examination Committee Chairperson: Prof. Duarte de Mesquita e Sousa Supervisor: Prof. Carlos Augusto Santos Silva Member of the Committee: Prof. Luís Filipe Moreira Mendes July 2016 As a token of appreciation for your time of patience, “service” and inspiration, thank you Impasible and thank you Diana. I ABSTRACT Founded on the emerging new energy paradigm, which places decentralized renewable energy (RE) production as the core and engine of the XXI st century energy revolution, the domain of this work is to explore into how RE decentralization in Portugal would evolve by means of self-consumption (SC). For this study, it has been taken into account current legislative progress, assuming solar photovoltaics (PV) as the most convenient and plausible technology to be applied. Thus, it has been evaluated the adequacy and impact of real demand profiles of residential, retail, hotel and industrial sectors to simulated solar PV production profiles of different locations, orientations and inclinations. In order to assess the optimum prosumer (producer and consumer) profile, a techno-economic performance analysis using payback time and interest rate of investment as reference metrics, has been realized. Best economic indicators within each sector vary from a poor 6.85% Internal rate of return (IRR), 9 years payback time (PBT) of a residential profile (Demand1) in Porto (10SW) to an 27.07% IRR and 3 years PBT of a Retail profile (Retail1) in Faro (30SW) reaching a self- consumption of 39.14% (30S). Furthermore, solar technology has been appraised and the European market and legislative energy strategies evolution has been revised in order to provide a comprehensive framework for the study. Keywords: renewable energy sources, self-consumption, solar photovoltaics, electricity demand. II RESUMO Fundada no novo paradigma energético emergente, o qual coloca a produção descentralizada de energia renovável (ER) como o núcleo e o motor da revolução energética no século XXI, o objetivo deste trabalho é explorar como a descentralização da ER em Portugal evoluiria por meio de autoconsumo. Para este estudo, teve- se em conta o actual progresso legislativo, assumindo a energia solar fotovoltaica (PV) como a tecnologia mais conveniente e plausível a ser aplicada. Assim, foi avaliada a adequação e o impacto de perfil de demanda real dos sectores residencial, retalho, hotelaria e industrial para perfis de produção solar PV simulada de diferentes locais, orientações e inclinações. De modo a obter o perfil do prosumidor (produtor e consumidor) óptimo, foi realizada uma análise do rendimento tecno-económico usando o período de recuperação do investimento e a taxa interna de rentabilidade (TIR) como indicadores. Os melhores indicadores econômicos dentro de cada sector podem variar de uma TIR de 6,85% e um tempo de retorno de 9 anos de um perfil residencial (Demand1) no Porto (10SW) a uma TIR de 27,07% e um tempo de retorno de 3 anos de um perfil de retalho (Retail1) em Faro (30SW), alcançando um autoconsumo de 39,14% (30S). A tecnologia solar e a evolução do mercado europeu energético e legislativo foram também avaliadas para enquadrar o estudo. Palavras-chave: fontes renováveis de energia, autoconsumo, energia solar fotovoltaica, procura eléctrica. III TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... II RESUMO ...................................................................................................................................................... III LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................... VII ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................ XII 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research hypothesis .............................................................................................................................. 4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 European generation electricity costs .................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 ENERGY GENERATION COSTS: BENCHMARKING ....................................................................................... 6 Levelized costs of energy for electricity (LCOE) ............................................................................................. 6 External costs ................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2.2 ENERGY GENERATION INCENTIVES .......................................................................................................... 10 2.2 European energy sector overview ....................................................................................................... 11 2.2.3 EU ENERGY POLICIES................................................................................................................................ 12 Climate Change related policies ................................................................................................................... 12 Security of supply related policies: capacity markets .................................................................................. 20 2.2.4 ENERGY MARKET EVOLUTION: DRIVERS .................................................................................................. 21 2.2.5 EUROPEAN LEGISLATIVE REVIEW ............................................................................................................ 26 2.3 The Portuguese Electricity market ....................................................................................................... 30 2.3.1. Electricity System overview ................................................................................................................ 30 2.3.2. Portuguese Renewable energy and PV specific legislation ................................................................ 33 3. SOLAR ENERGY ....................................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Solar technologies characterization ..................................................................................................... 39 3.1.1 INORGANIC CELLS ................................................................................................................................ 42 Crystalline silicon (c-si) ................................................................................................................................. 42 III (Al, Ga, In) – V (N, P, As, Sb)...................................................................................................................... 43 Thin Films ..................................................................................................................................................... 44 Thin Silicon ................................................................................................................................................... 46 IV 3.1.2 ORGANIC CELLS ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Organic Photovoltaics (OPV) ................................................................................................................................. 46 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCS) ........................................................................................................................ 46 Perovskite Solar Cells ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Quantum dot solar cells (CQD) ............................................................................................................................. 47 3.2 Solar technologies efficiencies ............................................................................................................. 47 3.2 Solar technologies multidisciplinary assessment ................................................................................. 49 4. CASE STUDY ............................................................................................................................................ 52 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 52 4.1.1. SELF-CONSUMPTION IN EUROPE ................................................................................................................ 52 4.1.2. SELF-CONSUMPTION IN PORTUGAL ............................................................................................................ 55 4.2 Self-consumption analysis ...................................................................................................................