Future trends in mobility: the rise of the sharing economy and automated transport - Annex A Deliverable no. 3.3 Date: 14/07/2016 Version: 1.1 Author(s): Laurent Franckx, VITO Contributor(s): Inge Mayeres, VITO Project: MIND-sets | www.mind-sets.eu Grant Agreement N°: 640401 Project duration: 01.12.14 – 30.11.17 Project Coordinator: Silvia Gaggi, ISIS T: 0039 063 212 655 F: 0039 063 213 049 E: [email protected] This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640401. Contents Preface __________________________________________________________________________ 5 Chapter 2: The rise of the sharing economy: implications for transport _____________________ 6 1. Introduction ____________________________________________________________________ 7 2. Carsharing ____________________________________________________________________ 10 Definitions ______________________________________________________________ 10 Key advantages and drawbacks _____________________________________________ 11 A (very short) history of carsharing ___________________________________________ 12 Round trip carsharing _____________________________________________________ 14 One way carsharing _______________________________________________________ 15 Personal vehicle sharing ___________________________________________________ 17 Characteristics of the supply side ____________________________________________ 18 Characteristics of the demand side __________________________________________ 19 The B2B market __________________________________________________________ 20 Assessing the impacts ___________________________________________________ 21 Organisational and institutional issues _____________________________________ 28 3. Scooter sharing ________________________________________________________________ 31 4. Bicycle sharing _________________________________________________________________ 32 Definitions ______________________________________________________________ 32 History __________________________________________________________________ 32 Usage __________________________________________________________________ 33 User socio-demographic profiles _____________________________________________ 33 Barriers _________________________________________________________________ 34 Impacts _________________________________________________________________ 34 Logistics ________________________________________________________________ 35 Perspectives _____________________________________________________________ 36 5. On-•demand ride services ________________________________________________________ 37 5.1. The traditional taxi market _________________________________________________ 37 5.2. Ridesourcing/Transportation Network Company (TNC) Services ___________________ 38 5.3. Ridesplitting within TNC services ____________________________________________ 41 Document / version / etc. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 2 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 5.4. E-•Hail Services for regulated taxis ___________________________________________ 41 5.5. Impacts _________________________________________________________________ 42 6. Ridesharing ___________________________________________________________________ 49 6.1. Definitions ______________________________________________________________ 49 6.2. Benefits _________________________________________________________________ 49 6.3. Organisation and technology ________________________________________________ 50 6.4. Dynamic ridesharing ______________________________________________________ 51 6.5. Perspectives _____________________________________________________________ 51 7. Alternative transit services _______________________________________________________ 54 7.1. Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) ___________________________________________ 54 7.2. Jitneys __________________________________________________________________ 58 7.3. Shuttles _________________________________________________________________ 58 7.4. Microtransit _____________________________________________________________ 58 7.5. Impacts _________________________________________________________________ 59 8. Courier network services ________________________________________________________ 62 9. Trip planning apps ______________________________________________________________ 63 9.1. Definitions ______________________________________________________________ 63 9.2. Advantages ______________________________________________________________ 64 9.3. Challenges and emerging services ___________________________________________ 65 9.4. Mobility as a Service ______________________________________________________ 66 10. Automated mobility ____________________________________________________________ 70 10.1. Definitions, history and current status ______________________________________ 70 10.2. Potential impacts _______________________________________________________ 74 10.3. Long term outlook ______________________________________________________ 79 10.4. Synergies with shared mobility ____________________________________________ 81 10.5. Legal and regulatory hurdles ______________________________________________ 89 11. Implications for transport modelling ______________________________________________ 90 11.1. Growth potential ________________________________________________________ 90 11.2. Valuation of time _______________________________________________________ 90 11.3. Modelling of parking ____________________________________________________ 91 11.4. What is a “travel mode”? _________________________________________________ 91 11.5. Impacts on road capacity ________________________________________________ 91 11.6. Reactions from other economic actors______________________________________ 91 11.7. Impact on the built environment ___________________________________________ 92 11.8. Ownership versus sharing ________________________________________________ 92 Document / version / etc. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 3 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 11.9. The importance of stated preferences ______________________________________ 92 12. Implications for transportation demand management _______________________________ 93 12.1. Shared mobility as complement or substitute ________________________________ 93 12.2. The regulation of on-demand ride services __________________________________ 94 12.3. Alternative powertrains __________________________________________________ 94 12.4. Pricing policies _________________________________________________________ 95 12.5. Public transit___________________________________________________________ 95 12.6. Accessibility ___________________________________________________________ 96 References ______________________________________________________________________ 97 Policy documents _____________________________________________________________ 112 The sole responsibility for the content of this document lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Neither the EACI nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Document / version / etc. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 4 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. Preface This document is a technical annex to Deliverable 3.3 of the MIND-SETS project. This annex follows the same structure as the main document, but delves deeper into the arguments, tackles the technical issues in greater depth and contains a full reference list. Chapter 2: The rise of the sharing economy: implications for transport Authors: Laurent FRANCKX, VITO Document / version / etc. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Page 6 Programme under grant agreement No 640401. 1. Introduction It was easy to predict mass car ownership but hard to predict Walmart Carl Sagan Previous Deliverables in the MIND SETS projects1 had already pointed to the rise of the “sharing economy” in Europe. For instance, between 2006 and 2014, the number of users of carsharing systems has increased from 0.36 million to 4.95 million. Bike ridership has also experienced a sharp growth over the last 10 years. In a few years’ time, these services have escaped from their niche status, and are arguably moving in the mainstream. Some urban transport planners are already wondering to what extent these new market models will undermine the assumptions of their current work. Moreover, several sectors are already affected by the phenomenon: taxi drivers argue that on-demand ride services are a form of unfair competition, traditional car rental and even car manufacturers are moving in the car sharing business, public transport operators wonder whether these new transport models are competitors or possible strategic allies… Moreover, there are indications that shared mobility may not only replace some forms of private travel, but may also facilitate other forms of private travel. Hence, the net environmental and transport impacts remain contentious. Moreover, whereas the idea of fully autonomous cars looked like pure science fiction just a decade ago, several major players claim that they have developed prototype models that can function in operational circumstances. Although there is a lot of controversy