Developing an Intergovernmental Nuclear Regulatory Organization: Lessons Learned from the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization, and the International Telecommunication Union Clarence Eugene Carpenter, Jr. Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering, May 1988 Seattle University, Seattle, WA Master of Science in Technical Management, May 1997 The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD Master of Arts in International Science and Technology Policy, May 2009 The George Washington University, Washington, DC A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 10, 2020 Dissertation directed by Kathryn Newcomer Professor of Public Policy and Public Administration The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Clarence Eugene Carpenter, Jr. has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of November 26, 2019. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Developing an Intergovernmental Nuclear Regulatory Organization: Lessons Learned from the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization, and the International Telecommunication Union Clarence Eugene Carpenter, Jr. Dissertation Research Committee: Kathryn Newcomer, Professor of Public Policy and Public Administration, Dissertation Director Philippe Bardet, Assistant Professor, Committee Member Emily Hammond, Glen Earl Weston Research Professor, Committee Member ii © 2020 by Clarence Carpenter All rights reserved iii Dedication For my wife and daughters. Finishing would not have been possible without you. iv Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank his Dissertation Director, Professor Katheryn Newcomer, for her encouragement and dedication; my dissertation committee members, Professors Philippe Bardet and Emily Hammond; and, my defense committee chair and members, Professors Michael Worth, Joseph Arleth, and William Adams. I also thank the faculty and staff of The George Washington University’s Columbian College of Arts and Sciences for their support. v Abstract Developing an Intergovernmental Nuclear Regulatory Organization: Lessons Learned from the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization, and the International Telecommunication Union I suggested that global adherence to a common set of nuclear regulatory standards would improve nuclear safety, security, and safeguards world-wide. I proposed there is a need for a new autonomous, competent, and authorized nuclear oversight intergovernmental organization (IGO) that could support and augment the capabilities and competencies of national-level nuclear regulatory authorities (NNRAs) that oversee the safety and security of nuclear energy programs in their respective States. I examined three cases where States readily accept such external assistance, specifically in the areas of civil aviation, maritime shipping, and telecommunications regulations, as well as multilateral environmental agreements and international standards, to determine if lessons learned from these case studies can be applied to developing the proposed nuclear oversight IGO’s capability to support NNRAs in expanding their ability to oversee the safe and secure use of nuclear materials and energy in their respective States. I also examine the ability of three existing IGOs – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the OECD’s Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) – to provide for the future harmonization and normalization of nuclear regulatory practices world- wide. Finally, I examined various regional cooperative nuclear regulatory networks and a number of NNRAs. I determined that the proposed nuclear oversight IGO, while desirable, is simply not feasible, mostly for political reasons. I provided five recommendations and three areas for future research. vi Table of Contents Dedication ......................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................v Abstract ............................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xii List of Tables .................................................................................................................. xiii 1 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................1 1.1 Synopsis ...................................................................................................................1 1.2 Background ............................................................................................................3 1.2.1 Uses of Nuclear Science and Technologies .................................................4 1.2.2 NNRA Overview .........................................................................................8 1.2.3 Characteristics of an Effective NNRA .......................................................11 1.2.4 Comparison of Existing NNRAs to Ideal ..................................................13 1.3 Organizations Reviewed ......................................................................................21 1.3.1 International Civil Aviation Organization .................................................24 1.3.2 International Maritime Organization .........................................................26 1.3.3 International Telecommunication Union ...................................................28 1.3.4 Other IGOs Examined................................................................................29 1.3.5 International Atomic Energy Agency ........................................................29 1.3.6 Nuclear Energy Agency .............................................................................34 1.3.7 Nuclear Suppliers Group............................................................................36 1.3.8 Standards Developing Organizations .........................................................40 1.3.9 Institute of Nuclear Power Operations .......................................................44 1.3.10 World Association of Nuclear Operators ...................................................46 1.3.11 Electric Power Research Institute ..............................................................48 1.4 Challenges of Adding Nuclear ............................................................................50 1.5 Nuclear Today ......................................................................................................52 1.5.1 Developed States ........................................................................................59 1.5.2 Developing States ......................................................................................60 1.5.3 Embarking States .......................................................................................61 1.5.4 Russian Federation and PRC Nuclear Marketing ......................................65 1.6 Nuclear Governance ............................................................................................66 1.6.1 Need for International Technical and Scientific Support Organization .....67 vii 1.6.2 Collaboration with Mature NNRAs ...........................................................68 1.6.3 Challenges with Indigenously-created Nuclear Regulatory Infrastructure 69 1.6.4 Benefits of Globally-Consistent Nuclear Regulatory Regime ...................71 1.7 Categories of Existing NNRAs ............................................................................72 1.7.1 Category 1 NNRAs ....................................................................................73 1.7.2 Category 2 NNRAs ....................................................................................76 1.7.3 Category 3 NNRAs ....................................................................................80 1.8 Early Attempts at Nuclear Governance .............................................................87 1.8.1 Acheson-Lilienthal Report and the Ba .......................................................87 1.8.2 Establishment of the IAEA ........................................................................87 1.8.3 Subsequent Proposals.................................................................................89 1.8.4 Proliferation Fears ......................................................................................91 1.9 Options for Developing NNRAs ..........................................................................94 1.9.1 Option 1 – Indigenously Created ...............................................................95 1.9.2 Option 2 – Assistance from Another NNRA .............................................95 1.9.3 Option 3 – Work with IAEA ......................................................................96 1.9.4 Regional Cooperative Nuclear Regulatory Networks................................96 1.9.5 Thematic Cooperative Nuclear Regulatory Networks .............................100 1.9.6 Option 4 – Contract the Development .....................................................101 1.10