FACT SHEET CLIMATE RISK PROFILE KENYA COUNTRY OVERVIEW Climate risks pose serious threats to Kenya’s sustainable development goals. With the largest economy in East Africa and a population of 48.5 million, Kenya serves as the regions’ financial, trade and communications hub. The country’s economy is largely dependent on rainfed agriculture and tourism, each susceptible to climate variability and change and extreme weather events. Increasing interseasonal variability and declining rainfall in the main rainy season have impacted cereal production in recent years. Recurrent droughts and floods—likely to be exacerbated by increasing temperatures, heavy rainfall events and sea level rise— lead to severe crop and livestock losses, famine and displacement. The 2008–2011 drought caused $12.1 billion in losses and damage. High population growth in urban areas is leading to expanding informal settlements, which are at risk from water scarcity, flooding and heat. While national poverty rates fell in recent years, poverty rates in arid and semi-arid regions of the north remain over 80 percent. Most of the country’s coast is low-lying, with coastal plains, islands, beaches, wetlands and estuaries at risk from sea level rise. A sea level rise of 30 cm is estimated to threaten 17 percent (4,600 hectares) of Mombasa with inundation. Models estimate that by 2030 climate variability and extremes will lead to losses equivalent to 2.6 percent of GDP annually. (5, 7, 8, 12, 13, 18, 23) CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 1.2–2.2oC increase Increase in frequency Increase in severity of 16–42 cm rise in temperatures by and intensity of dry spells and duration in sea level 2050 heavy rainfall of heat waves KEY CLIMATE IMPACTS Agriculture Water Reduced water quantity and quality AgricultureReduced grain yields and qualityWater Resources Heat stress in livestock Increased water scarcity and variability Damage to crops and land Increased saltwater intrusion Human Health Ecosystems Energy and Infrastructure IncreasedHealth heat stress Degradation/loss of coastal habitats Reduced hydropower capacity Increased risk of vector- and Reduced ranges for native species Increased flooding and landslide waterborne diseases Economic losses to tourism industry damage to infrastructure July 2018 This document was prepared under the Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Task Order No. AID-OAA-I-14-00013 and is meant to provide a brief overview of climate risk issues. The key resources at the end of the document provide more in-depth country and sectoral analysis. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID. CLIMATE SUMMARY Kenya’s geography is dominated by arid and semi-arid plains, with a temperate highland plateau (reaching over 5,000 m) in the center, and a hotter, wetter climate along the coast and the shores of Lake Victoria. Two-thirds of the country receive less than 500 mm of rainfall per year; coastal and highland areas receive annual averages upwards of 1,100 mm and 2,000 mm, respectively. Kenya has two rainy seasons: “long rains” from March to June (about 70 percent of total annual rainfall); and “short rains” from October to December. In the west and along the coast, additional significant rainfall occurs outside of these two rainy seasons. Temperatures range from an average of 18°C in high elevation areas like Nairobi to 26°C in coastal areas such as Mombasa. Located on the equator, Kenya experiences little seasonal temperature variation. (3, 5, 7, 15, 18, 19, 24) HISTORICAL CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE Historic climate trends include: Projected changes by the 2050s include: • Increased average temperature of 0.34°C per • Increase in average temperatures of 1.2–2.2oC, decade from 1985–2015; greatest increases with warming greatest in the west. March to May and in arid and semi-arid regions. • Increased duration (+9–30 days) of heat waves. • Little change in average annual precipitation but • A likely increase in average rainfall (projections declines in the long rains in central Kenya since range from -3 to +28 percent), mainly from the 1970s, and possible increased rainfall in the October to May and in the coast and highlands. north and decreased rainfall in the south. • Increased interseasonal rainfall variability. • Sea level rise of 5.8 cm from 1932–2001 • Increased frequency and intensity of heavy (Mombasa). rainfall events. • Glacial volume loss of more than 66 percent in • Likely decrease in duration of dry spells but last 100 years; Lewis Glacier (Mount Kenya) has increase in severity (-2 to +27 percent). lost 90 percent of its volume since 1934. • Rise in sea levels of 16–42 cm. SECTOR IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES AGRICULTURE Climate Stressors and Climate Risks Kenyan agriculture is 98 percent rainfed and highly AGRICULTURE sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall. Stressors Risks Agriculture accounts for more than 30 percent of Rising Reduced grain yields and quality GDP and is the primary livelihood for 60 percent of temperatures & due to heat and water stress Kenyans. Small-scale farms account for 75 percent evaporation rate Heat stress in livestock, leading to of production. Maize, beans, tea and potatoes are reduced reproduction, growth rates the most important crops, and sheep and goats Increased and milk production interseasonal dominate livestock production. Recurrent drought, a rainfall Crop damage and degraded crop significant problem, led to an estimated $10.2 billion variability and pasture land loss in livestock and crops from 2008 to 2011. Increased incidence of pests and Higher temperatures are likely to expand production Increased diseases for crops and livestock of maize and beans into higher elevations, but frequency & intensity of Saltwater intrusion and storm farming in lower elevations is expected to see yield heavy rainfall surges, impacting coastal losses of up to 20 percent due to heat stress and production, particularly of mango, shifting rainfall patterns, with some areas (like Sea level rise cashew and coconut central Kenya) becoming unsuitable for production. shifting to higher elevations as temperature increase Maize, which accounts for about one-third of caloric puts current production areas at risk from heat intake in Kenya, can be damaged by temperatures extremes and increasing pests and diseases. In arid o over 35 C, which are increasingly common in and semi-arid regions, pastoralism is the dominant lowland regions. Kenya is a world leader in tea production system; high temperatures are expected production; tea accounted for $787 million in exports to increase heat stress and pest and disease in 2014. Areas suitable for tea production are incidence in livestock. (1, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14, 17, 23) CLIMATE RISK IN KENYA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 2 WATER RESOURCES Climate Stressors and Climate Risks Kenya’s scarce water resources, strained by WATER RESOURCES population growth and severe forest degradation, Stressors Risks could be further stressed by increasing Rising Increased water scarcity and temperatures, evaporation rates and rainfall temperatures & variability for irrigation, domestic variability. The country relies predominantly on evaporation rate use, hydropower and industry surface water sources, but key rivers and lakes are Accelerated glacial loss; reduced highly susceptible to climate change. In 2010 Increased river flows from Mt. Kenya rainfall Kenya’s water availability was 586m3 per person variability Increased flood damage to water annually, well below the internationally acceptable supply and sanitation threshold of 1,000m3 per person; this figure is Increased infrastructure expected to fall to as low as 293m3 by 2050. frequency and Increasingly severe droughts and flooding will intensity of Saltwater intrusion into coastal heavy rainfall impact water availability and diminish water quality, aquifers (supplying a population of 3 million); decreased water with implications for irrigation and domestic water Sea level rise quality supply and sanitation, which combined account for 87 percent of current use. Urban areas are already turning once glacially-fed perennial rivers, such as highly water stressed; Mombasa regularly the Ewaso Ng’iro, to seasonal flows, leading to implements water rationing. Glacial loss on Mount conflict over water resources between communities Kenya is further straining water resources and upstream and downstream. (3, 5, 7, 20) ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Climate Stressors and Climate Risks ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Increased evaporation rates and more severe Stressors Risks drought threaten Kenya’s hydropower production, which accounts for about one-half of domestic Rising Reduced hydropower production temperatures & electricity production. Hydro production is reduced evaporation rate Increased flooding and by up to 40 percent in drought years, leading to landslides, damaging power persistent power outages and reliance on more Increased generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure as well expensive petroleum-based thermal generation. frequency and intensity of as transportation and building Projections of sea level rise and increased heavy heavy rainfall infrastructure precipitation events leading to flooding and Damage to Port Kilindini and landslides put energy, transportation and building Sea level rise coastal infrastructure infrastructure at risk. Models estimate that in level rise by 2050, including Port Kilindini, the largest Mombasa as much as $4.8 billion worth of assets seaport in East Africa. (5, 6, 7, 12)