RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 4•No. 3•JULY – SEPTEMBER•2006 Contents The Russian Season Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Russia in Focus Russia’s G8 History: From Guest to President Vadim Lukov 8 Russia’s participation in the G8 has provided the group with a major incen- tive for confronting a broad range of international political problems involv- ing strategic stability, regional conflicts and nonproliferation. The expansion of summit agendas has given “fresh oxygen” to the dialog between the G8 leaders. The Kremlin at the G8’s Helm: Choosing the Right Steps Vlad Ivanenko 22 Chairing the G8 meeting in St. Petersburg is an important test of the Kremlin administration’s ability to advance its national interests abroad. If Russia engages other members in a substantive discussion of its proposals, it will make a significant accomplishment. Comments by Hiski Haukkala and Peter Rutland. Russia, an Engine for Global Development Fyodor Shelov-Kovedyaev 36 Russia should cease playing a game of “catch up” with the so-called devel- oped economies, as well as relinquish the idea of antagonism between Russian and Western interests. Russia and the West objectively need each other. Contents The Russian Economy Today and Tomorrow Arkady Dvorkovich 46 While the problems that Russia must solve in the next three years are quite serious, the long-term challenges are much more fundamental. These chal- lenges include the reduction of the Russian population; the decline in the skill level of manpower resources; the aging of the infrastructure; and the need for sufficient competitive niches in the global division of labor. Foreign Policy Imperatives Asia’s Future and Russia’s Policy Situation Analysis 56 The formation of Russia’s new policy toward the Asia-Pacific countries is impossible without transforming its foreign-policy thinking, which has been traditionally focused on the Euro-Atlantic space. Russia must stop viewing Asia as something alien. The Rise of Asia, and the Eastern Vector of Russia’s Foreign Policy Sergei Lavrov 68 There are necessary prerequisites for adding a new quality to Russia’s mutu- ally advantageous partnership with the Asia-Pacific countries. The recogni- tion of Russia’s importance as a constructive factor in the Asia-Pacific region has brought about markedly new opportunities for regional integra- tion and for consolidating the independent role of the regional states in global politics. U.S.-Russia Relations Through the Prism of Ideology Leon Aron 81 The alienation between Washington and Moscow will most likely continue to increase until at least 2009 when new administrations will come to power in both countries. Both the United States and Russia will almost simulta- neously launch presidential campaigns in which foreign policy, as a rule, ceases to be an esoteric area dominated by the highbrows and breaks out into a political fist fight. After the Road Map Alek D. Epstein 100 Russia’s growing importance in world politics and economy helps it assume a more independent role in international policies in the Middle East. Russia could offer a new diplomatic initiative for scaling down tensions in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This may occur if it bases its incentive on the principle of ‘demographic disengagement’ of the Israelis and Palestinian Arabs. Azerbaijan – Between America and Iran Arif Yunus 112 The Iranian issue has divided Azerbaijani society, as shown by frequent pub- lic opinion polls. The latest poll showed a fall in the popularity of the United States: only 11 percent placed the U.S. among countries that are the most friendly toward Azerbaijan (compared with 30 percent in 1999). RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 4 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2006 Contents Metamorphoses Time to Decide on Russia’s Identity Alexander Akhiezer, Igor Klyamkin, Igor Yakovenko 128 The impediments to the implementation of the liberal-democratic project arise not so much from Russia’s cultural-typological differences with the West, as was the case in the early 20th century, as from its historical lag behind the West against the background of the non-essential differences. In Defense of the National Idea Sergei Markedonov 140 The formation of Russia’s new national policy is taking place amidst the broadening global crisis concerning the concept of the nation-state, which is instigated by the confrontation between globalization and ethnic sepa- ratism. Russia has a unique opportunity to reconsider and reformulate par- ticular values of the nation-state. To Save and Protect Svetlana Babayeva, Georgy Bovt 148 Political dormancy and indifference have engulfed the Russian people who have turned their energies to the realm of material rather than political ambitions. The consumer boom is rolling through the country, in some places energetically – occasionally even glamorously. Soviet Legacy History and Myths Roi Medvedev 164 Successful self-identification within the post-Soviet states often involves tak- ing a new look at one’s national history. Not all titular nations in the CIS had states of their own in the past, but all of them had a history on which to build their national self-consciousness. The Evolution of the Russian Diaspora in Independent Ukraine Boris Zazhigayev 176 In a situation where ethnic Russians are now the lowest caste on the social ladder of Ukrainian society, they are not in the position to uphold their rights in Ukraine on their own. Today, the outlook for the Russian diaspo- ra’s involvement in Ukrainian politics is bleak. Spanish Lessons for Moscow Omar G. Encarnación 190 Spain’s democratic success poses no miracle prescriptions for Russia and other struggling democracies. But it suggests a point often overlooked in dis- cussions about democratization. Democracy is the product of the skills and talents of real-life political actors rather than the result of some macro-his- torical process linked to the development of the economy, or the constitu- tional configuration of civil society and political organizations. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 4 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2006 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO Association for the Protection Alexei ARBATOV (in a personal capacity) of Investors’ Rights Mikhail KOZHOKIN Lev BELOUSOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Andrei KUZYAEV (Deputy Chairman) Vladimir RYZHKOV LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. Sergei LAVROV C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) 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The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with Printed by the authors. Kaluzhskaya Tipografia Standartov Order No. 1455 © Globus Publishing House 2006 Circulation: 3,000 copies All rights reserved. Reproduction in part or whole is allowed only with the explicit authorization of the publisher. The Russian Season Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief Russia’s G8 presidency, which will