Central Coast Land & Coastal Resource Management Plan Socio-Economic & Environmental/Marine Base Case: Final Report prepared by Ministry of Employment & Investment (Economics Branch) Eliot Terry, Keystone Wildlife Research Jacqueline Boothemp Violet Komori with research input from G.E. Bridges & Associates G.S. Gislason & Associates in association with the Central Coast LCRMP Inter-Agency Planning Team November 2000 TO: Central Coast Inter-agency Planning Team (IPT) and LCRMP Table Members RE: Socio-Economic & Environmental/Marine Base Case Report FROM: Gord Enemark, Ministry of Employment and Investment DATE: November 24, 2000 Attached is the final version of the Central Coast LCRMP Socio-Economic & Environmental/Marine Base Case report, which attempts to address comments received on the previous draft (September 1999). Recall that the objective of this work is to assess current and anticipated socio-economic/environmental trends in the Plan Area in the absence of a Land/Coastal Use Plan, for two key purposes: (1) to assist the Table in prioritizing key socio-economic and environmental issues it may want to address in its final LCRMP recommendations; and (2) to provide analysts with a “starting point” from which to assess the implications of a future Land/Coastal Use Plan to be proposed by the LCRMP. Since the LCRMP is engaged in “high level” or “strategic” land/coastal use planning for a nearly five million hectare (plus coastal areas) region, the Base Case report by necessity also takes a similar “broad- brush,” Plan Area-wide approach. However, we have attempted to discuss the “North” and “South” portions of the Plan Area separately where there was available information and where it was felt appropriate to do so. Therefore, except in certain key instances where a “local” or “watershed” issue had special significance, the analysis takes a generalized approach in terms of its geographic perspective. This work is done in as balanced and value-neutral a fashion as possible, by analysts who are at “arms- length” from both the IPT and the entire LCRMP process. Note that Part 1 (Socio-Economic), in addition to my own work, contains some research input from consulting economists G.E. Bridges & Associates and G.S. Gislason & Associates. The remainder of the report contains the environmental analysis: Part 2 (Environmental - Terrestrial) was undertaken by Eliot Terry (R.P. Bio.) of Keystone Wildlife Research, Part 3 (Environmental - Marine) is by Jacqueline Booth (B.Sc.), and Part 4 (Environmental - Anadromous/Freshwater Fisheries) is by Violet Komori (B.Sc., M.R.M.) The approach taken in this report conforms as closely as possible with the principles contained in the provincial government’s publication, Social and Economic Impact Assessment for LRMP in BC: Interim Guidelines (1993). This document states that “Considerable uncertainty may exist around the trends associated with the Base Case. The most likely trends should be described, along with the key factors influencing them….” In most cases, these “key factors” include the effects of resource industries. Given that these industries create socio-economic benefits as well as potential impacts on other values, it is our responsibility as analysts to address both. The LCRMP Table then has the task of striking a balance among these various impacts in its eventual Land/Coastal Use Plan recommendations. And while there will not be complete agreement with the content, I urge participants to also focus on that content for which there is general agreement and which adds relevant technical information to the deliberations. If you have any questions or concerns regarding the Base Case report, I can be reached at 250-952-0699 (using the toll-free 1-800-663-7867 Enquiry BC line if you wish) or via E-Mail at [email protected]. If you would like to liaise directly with the consultants, Eliot can be reached at 250-964-3229 (E-Mail: [email protected]), Jacky is at 250-653-4761 (E-Mail: [email protected]), and Violet can be contacted at 250-336-8851 (E-Mail: [email protected]). Central Coast Land and Coastal Resource Management Plan Base Case Contents: Summary Matrix Part 1: Socio-Economic Part 2: Environmental - Wildlife Part 3: Environmental - Marine Part 4: Environmental - Anadromous/Freshwater Fisheries Central Coast Land and Coastal Resource Management Plan Base Case Part 1 Socio-Economic Prepared by Gord Enemark Economics Branch, Ministry of Employment and Investment P.O. Box 9327 Stn Prov Govt Victoria, BC V8W 9N3 with research input from G.E. Bridges & Associates G.S. Gislason & Associates Ltd. Consulting Economists PO Box 10321, Pacific Centre 1031 Vancouver St. 1688 - 609 Granville St. Victoria, BC Vancouver, BC V8V 4T6 V7Y 1G5 Section 1 Summary Matrix: SocioSocio---EconomicEconomic Base Case Socio-Community Account - Base Case Trends General • The Central Coast LCRMP Plan Area is ~4.8 million hectares, ~50% larger than Vancouver Island. It includes most of the Mid-Coast Forest District (FD) & a small portion of the North Coast FD as the “North” portion of the Plan Area (pop. ~4200); the “South” portion (pop. ~400) contains the mainland portions of the Pt. McNeill and Campbell River FDs & the Smith Inlet portion of the Mid Coast FD. • The Plan Area also includes the better part of 4 DFO “Statistical Areas” (#6-#9) in the North & 4 in the South (#10-#13); there are portions of 2 BC Environment Regions in the North & 2 in the South; and 5 First Nations claim traditional territories in the North & 14 in the South. • 10.7% of the Plan Area is currently in fully/partly Protected Areas and a further 65 terrestrial areas, covering 6.7% of the Plan Area, have been assigned “Study Area” status by the provincial government; 42 of these Study Areas are located in the northern portion of the Plan Area (a number of other areas have also been identified by CCLCRMP participants as candidates for protection). • The communities of Bella Coola, Hagensborg, Ocean Falls, Klemtu, Rivers Inlet (Oweekeno), Namu, Shearwater, Firvale, Stuie & Bella Bella are within the Plan Area, all of which are located in the North. • ~50% of residents live in the Bella Coola/Hagensborg area (Regional District Electoral Areas C, D, & E), which is the major centre in the Plan Area, with another ~25% in the Bella Bella area (Electoral Area B). • ~95% of the population of the southern part of the Plan Area is aboriginal, located in five very small communities: Kingcome, Gilford, New Vancouver, Hope Island, and Hope Town. • While population growth in recent years has been strong, the provincial government’s (BC STATS) forecast for the Plan Area is for no growth over next 25 years, due to out-migration and aging population; however, BC STATS acknowledges the uncertainty in forecasting for small areas and First Nations believe that their populations will continue to grow rapidly, which would cause overall Plan Area population to increase. First Nations • First Nations on reserve comprise >50% of the overall Plan Area population and include the Heiltsuk, Kitasoo, Nuxalk, & Oweekeno, in the North and the Kwicksutaineuk, Tsawataineuk, Kwa-Wa-Aineuk, Tlatlasikwala, and Da’naxda’xw in the much less populous South; also many members of some of these First Nations live on northern Vancouver Island but claim traditional territories in the Plan Area, e.g., the Kwakiutl (KDC) & Musgamagw-Tsawataineuk (MTTC) groups. • In 1996, ~30% of the on-reserve labour force in the Plan Area worked in the fishing/forestry industries; this has since declined due to BC-wide economic problems in these resource sectors. • Several Plan Area First Nations indicate that key concerns are sustainability of fish/wildlife, unemployment rates approaching 90% in some cases, lack of training/capacity, lack of control over land & resources, the recent extreme downturn in fisheries employment, and lack of meaningful forestry jobs. • There are several First Nations with traditional territories in the Plan Area that are currently involved in treaty negotiations, comprised of the Heiltsuk, Oweekeno, Homalco, Haisla, Tsimshian, Kwakiutl, and Namgis; claims settlements, including likely financial compensation from the federal government, should eventually increase future economic stability in the Plan Area. • MTTC/KDC/Tlowitsis have protocol concerns re industries such as tourism & mining, and would like more significant participation in forestry; it is also understood most of their members have strong concerns about salmon farming, as do the Heiltsuk. Employment • Main economic drivers are forestry, fishing, tourism, aquaculture, and the public sector/transfer payments. & Income • Over 90% of the ~2200-member resident labour force is located in the northern part of the Plan Area. • The Plan Area labour force grew by 38% from 1986 to 1991, mostly due to increases in the services and public (i.e., government/health/education) sectors. • The Census unemployment rate in 1996 was 15% (this does not include “discouraged workers” who have dropped out of the labour force) and was a reduction from the 1986 and 1991 levels; however, the rate has worsened since due to the declines in the forestry and fishing sectors. • The 1996 average tax filer income for the Plan Area was ~$18,000/yr. vs. ~$28,000/yr. for BC overall. • Economic growth is expected to continue to be slow, and opportunities appear to be mainly within the forestry, tourism, and aquaculture sectors; reduced timber harvests expected in both short & long term. Inter- • Many communities outside of the Central Coast benefit from the resource activities that occur in the Plan Regional Area, primarily on northern Vancouver Island (where the local economy is also currently poor) and the Lower Linkages Mainland - about 96% of forestry jobs, 95% of aquaculture jobs, over half of tourism jobs, and an unknown number of fishery jobs that are generated in the Plan Area are held by non-resident workers; this is also a clear indication of the close economic linkages the Plan Area has with other nearby regions • More future joint ventures between the private sector & local First Nations may alter the foregoing statistics.