CrossTalk prophet and give credence to his notion PEAK OIL: that the production curve of a mineral resource was symmetrical, with the decline being a mirror image of the ascent. A RETROSPECTIVE But reality does not follow perfect mod­ els, and by the year 2000, actual U.S. oil output was 2.3 times as much as indicated PREDICTIONS OF WHEN we would run In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil out­ by Hubbert’s symmetrically declining out of oil have been around for a century, put would top out during the late 1960s; forecast. Similarly, his forecasts of global but the idea that peak production was in 1969 he placed it in the first half of the peak oil (either in 1990 or in 2000) had rapidly approaching and that it would 1970s. In 1970, when the actual peak soon unraveled. But that made no differ­ be followed by ruinous decline gained came—or appeared to come—it was nearly ence to a group of geologists, most nota­ wider acceptance thanks to the work of 20 percent above Hubbert’s prediction. bly Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, M. King Hubbert, an American geologist But few paid attention to the miss—the tim­ L.F. Ivanhoe, and Jean Laherrère, who who worked for Shell in Houston. ing was enough to make his name as a saw global oil peaking in 2000 or 2003. IMAGES GUERDOU/GETTY KHALID NUMBERS DON’T LIE BY VACLAV SMIL 20 | MAY 2020 | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG PRODUCTION VS. PREDICTION 4 U.S. field production 3 of crude oil (billions of barrels Hubbert per year) 2 high-peak oil estimate 1 UP AGAIN: Peak oil did happen, but still the prophecies of doom have 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2019 proved false: Oil production is trending up again. Deffeyes set it, with ridiculous accuracy, larger (2.5 percent) decline in 2009 (fol­ on Thanksgiving Day, 24 November 2005. lowing the economic downturn), global These analysts then predicted unprece­ crude oil extraction has set new records dented economic disruptions. Ivanhoe every year. In 2018, at nearly 4.5 billion went so far as to speak of “the inevita­ metric tons, it was nearly 14 percent ble doomsday” followed by “economic higher than in 2005. implosion” that would make “many of A large part of this gain has been due to the world’s developed societies look expansion in the United States, where the more like today’s Russia than the United combination of horizontal drilling and States.” Richard C. Duncan, an electrical hydraulic fracturing made the country, engineer, proffered his “Olduvai theory,” once again, the world’s largest producer which held that declining oil extraction of crude oil, about 16 percent ahead of would plunge humanity into a life com­ Saudi Arabia and 19 percent ahead of parable to that of the hunter­gatherers Russia. Instead of following a perfect bell­ who lived near the famous Kenyan gorge shaped curve, since 2009 the trajectory some 2.5 million years ago. of the U.S. crude oil extraction has been In 2006, I reacted to these prophecies on the rise, and it is now surpassing the by noting that “the recent obsession with record set in 1970. an imminent peak of oil extraction has As for the global economic product, all the marks of a catastrophist apocalyp­ in 2019 it was 82 percent higher, in cur­ SINCE 2009 tic cult.” I concluded that “conventional rent prices, than in 2005, a rise enabled oil will become relatively a less impor­ by the adequate supply of energy in THE TRAJECTORY tant part of the world’s primary energy general and crude oil in particular. I’d supply. But this spells no imminent end like to think that there are many les­ OF THE U.S. CRUDE of the oil era as very large volumes of sons to be learned from this peak oil– the fuel, both from traditional and non­ mongering, but I have no illusions: EXTRACTION HAS BEEN conventional sources, will remain on the Those who put models ahead of real­ ON THE RISE, AND IT IS world market during the first half of the ity are bound to make the same false 21st century.” calls again and again. n NOW SURPASSING THE And so they have. With the exception POST YOUR COMMENTS AT of a tiny (0.2 percent) dip in 2007 and a spectrum.ieee.org/oil-may2020 RECORD SET IN 1970. CROSSTALK SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | MAY 2020 | 21.