BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE NEXUS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE, DELTA STATE, NIGERIA BY PROF. (MRS) ROSEMARY N. OKOH PROF. ROSEMARY N. OKOH NATIONAL CONSULTANT, TERRITORIAL APPROACH DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURALTO ECONOMICS CLIMATE CHANGE & EXTENSION, DELTA STATE UNIVERSITY,(TACC), ABRAKA, DELTA STATE, NIGERIA ASABA CAMPUS, PO BOX 95074, ASABA, NIGERIA Email: [email protected], [email protected] ASSESSMENT REPORTPhone: +2348035839113, +2348037145095 AUGUST 2013 ASSESSMENT REPORT 2 BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE NEXUS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE, IN DELTA STATE, NIGERIA BY PROF. ROSEMARY N. OKOH NATIONAL CONSULTANT, TERRITORIAL APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE (TACC), DELTA STATE, NIGERIA ASSESSMENT REPORT SUBMITTED TO THE PROJECT MANAGER, TERRITORIAL APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE (TACC) IN DELTA STATE, CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT, MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, DELTA STATE, NIGERIA AUGUST 2013 3 TERRITORIAL APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE (TACC) IN DELTA STATE, NIGERIA 1. TACC Project Title: Long-term planning for low emission, climate-resilient development in the Delta State, Nigeria 2. Project Title: Biophysical and socio-economic assessment of the nexus of environmental degradation and climate change, Delta State, Nigeria 3. TACC Project Output 1 duration: Twelve (12) months 4. Name of Principal Investigator: Prof. Rosemary N. Okoh 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The importance of biophysical and socioeconomic data for evidence based policy making on climate change impacts, vulnerability and strategy formulation for GHG mitigation and adaptation to climate change cannot be overemphasized. This is why all the participants in this research the Research, the climate change team, TACC project management team, the key informants and the entire respondents are highly appreciated. I appreciate the Delta State Governor, Dr. Emmanuel E. Uduaghan, for the foresight and burden in his heart to provide soccour to the large population of Deltans who are suffering the impact of Climate Change. I also thank the commissioner of Environment and many thanks to UNDP and other international organizations that are providing technical support for the TACC project. My profound gratitude goes to the project manager, TACC Mrs. Felicia Adun, who doubles as the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Environment as she put her great enthusiasm and proactive managerial prowess into play;she mobilized members of the Climate Change Unit (CCU) and relevant stakeholders for the study. I appreciate the CCU staff, Felix Ogirisen and Andrew Ojeblenu, who made sure that all that were needed for the study were put in place as much as it laid within their power. I greatly appreciate my colleagues the Researchers whose dogged determination helped to collect data in very difficult circumstances, for a paltry fee and risked their lives without police protection as they went in and out of volatile communities. Your sacrifice will not be in vain. I specially appreciate the Data Analyst, Dr. Samuel Mesike, who worked assiduously as a Researcher and analyzed data for seventeen locations and for the state with several requests for analysis for the state with different data variable combinations and his only response was consistently “Ok Ma” and the SPSS result followed without delay. His research reports were completed long before others. Sam, go on in this thy might and not even the sky will be able to limit you. I appreciate my husband Prof Patrick N. Okoh for his great personal sacrifices and support throughout the study. I will not forget the staff of Rural Linkage Network- Mercy, Jubilee, Austin, Lydia, Victoria, Henry, Ifeanyi, etc. who provided the secretarial and other support for this report. Above all I give thanks to the Almighty God, the giver of life and all good gifts. Professor Rosemary N. Okoh National Consultant, TACC, Delta State, Nigeria 5 LIST OF ACRONYMS BNRCC Building Nigerian Response to Climate Change CDC Community development committee CCU/T Climate change unit/ team CDM Climate Development Mechanism CSO Civil Society Organization DSMEnv Delta state ministry of environment FMEnv Federal ministry of environment FEPA Federal environmental protection agency GCM Global climate model GEF Global environmental facility GHGs Green house gases IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature ITCP Integrated Territorial Climate Plan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NIMET Nigerian Meteorological Agency PHCN Power Holding Company of Nigeria R20 Regions of Climate Action REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation TACC Territorial approach to climate change UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme UNFCCC United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 CHAPTER SUBJECTS PAGE Cover page 1 Title page 2 Inside Title 3 Acknowledgements 4 List of Acronyms 5 Table of Contents 6 List of Tables 9 List of Figures 10 List of Appendices 11 Executives Summary 12 1 INTRODUCTION 51 Rationale Research question Objectives Conceptual Framework ( to include narrative) Methods: Design Study area Selection criteria for study area Data to be collected (by objective) Data collection methods (by objective) Instruments (by objective) Study population Sample size and sample selection methods Data Analysis (by objective) 2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXTS OF 81 DELTA STATE Geographic and Demographic contexts of Delta state Cross sectoral Socio-economic and biophysical context of Delta State: - Agriculture - Fisheries - Water - Forestry and Environmental degradation - Water - Health - Energy 7 - Cross Cutting Sector-Livelihood security, gender, transport, etc. 3 STATE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT 110 Climate Change Contexts in Delta State, Nigeria a. The indicators of climate change of climate change; b. The link between environmental degradations and climate change in the communities c. Cross sectoral Biophysical and socio economic Impacts of climate change and environmental degradations: - Agriculture - Fisheries - Water - Forestry and Environmental degradation - Water - Health - Energy - Cross Cutting Sector-Livelihood security, etc. 4 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN DELTA STATE 153 Factors driving vulnerability to climate change and the level of vulnerability of the communities in Delta State. 5 GREEN HOUSE GAS MITIGATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE 162 ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR DELTA STATE Cross sectoral Socio-economic and biophysical context: - Agriculture - Fisheries - Water - Forestry and Environmental degradation - Water - Health - Energy Cross Cutting Sector-Livelihood security, gender, transport, etc. 6 CHALLENGES THAT INTERFERE WITH ADAPTIVE 186 CAPACITY, ADAPTATION, MITIGATION Challenges 7 CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 190 8 a. Key findings: Summaries of key findings b. Recommendations and Implications for evidence- based policy making and programme planning c. Conclusion. References 216 Appendices 219 9 LIST OF TABLES TABLES PAGES Table 1.1: Natural Ecological Zones of Delta State and study locations 62 Table 1:2 Level of vulnerability and scores 76 Table 2.1a: Air Quality Index of the ambient air of Delta State 85 Table 2.1b: Air Quality Index Rating Table. 89 Table 2.2: Index of economic activities as a proxy for SGDP 2007 91 Table 2.3: Human Development Index (HDI) for States 92 Table 2.4: Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) 92 Table 2.5: Distribution of households by source of energy cooking 95 Table 2.6: Sources of water in the Delta State 100 Table2.7: Crude oil Facilities in communities studied 101 Table 3.1a: Daily Temperature Variability in the Rainforest ecological 117 zones of Delta State, Nigeria Table 3.1b: Daily Temperature Variability in the Fresh water swamp 118 forest ecological zones of Delta State, Nigeria Table 3.1c: Daily Temperature Variability in the three ecological zones 119 of Delta State, Nigeria Table 3.2 Summary of extreme events 2000 -2100 127 Table 3.3: Plant and animal species becoming extinct 135 Table 3.4: Gender and coping capacity 150 Table 4:1 Level of vulnerability and scores 158 Table 5.1 Current adaptation and coping strategies 162 10 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURES PAGE Figure 1: Diagrammatic representation of the TACC programme strategy 61 (Adapted from the TACC document, 2010) Figure2: The map of Delta State showing the LGAs and the natural 63 ecological zones (Osakwuni, 2012) Figure 3.1 Annual Max temperatures Warri 1961 -2009 115 Figure 3.2: Annual Max temperatures Asaba 2000 -2009 116 Figure 3.3: Seasonality of Temperature in Warri 1961 -2009 116 Figure 3.4: Seasonality of Temperature in Asaba 2000 -2009 117 Figure 3.5: Annual Rainfall Warri 1961 -2009 121 Figure 3.6: Annual Rainfall Asaba 2000 -2009 122 Figure 3.7: Seasonality of Rainfall in Warri 1961 -2009 122 Figure 3.8: Seasonality of Rainfall In Asaba 2000 -2009 122 Figure 3.9 First quarter Warri Rainfall 123 Figure 3.10 Second quarter Warri rainfall 123 Figure 3.11 Third quarter Warri rainfall 124 FIGURE 3.12 Fourth quarter Warri rainfall 124 Figure 3.13: Deforestation due to oil spillage 136 Figure 3.14: Destruction of Mangrove forests – crude oil spillage 138 Figure 3.15: Impact of flooding on household properties, livestock, 141 infrastructure, etc 11 APPENDICES APPENDICES PAGE Appendix 1: List of Researchers and climate change team 219 members APPENDIX 2.I: Summary result of the mean concentrations of the gas 221 parameters APPENDIX 2.12: Air Quality Index of the ambient air of Delta State 222 APPENDIX 2.2: