James Madison University JMU Scholarly Commons Masters Theses The Graduate School Spring 2012 Advantages and challenges of unmanned aerial vehicle autonomy in the Postheroic age Nathan Richards Fields James Madison University Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/master201019 Part of the Military and Veterans Studies Commons Recommended Citation Fields, Nathan Richards, "Advantages and challenges of unmanned aerial vehicle autonomy in the Postheroic age" (2012). Masters Theses. 205. https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/master201019/205 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the The Graduate School at JMU Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Masters Theses by an authorized administrator of JMU Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Advantages and Challenges of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Autonomy in the Postheroic Age Nathan R. Fields A thesis submitted to the Graduate Faculty of JAMES MADISON UNIVERSITY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Master of Science Integrated Science and Technology May 2012 Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the support of my adviser, Dr. George Baker, and my committee, Dr. Michael Deaton and Dr. Jeffrey Tang, to whom I am very thankful and indebted. Their guidance and input has been invaluable throughout the entire research process, and I am honored to have worked with each of them. ii Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction - Welcome to the Postheroic Age .................................................................... 1 1.1 Thesis Statement ........................................................................................................... 8 1.2 UAV History; 1899-2011 ....................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Current and Imminent UAV Advantages .......................................................................... 25 1.4 Challenges of UAV Usage .................................................................................................... 33 1.4.1 A Disconnected Public .................................................................................................. 35 1.4.2 Overconfident Leadership ............................................................................................. 41 1.4.3 Polarization of Public Opinion...................................................................................... 45 1.4.4 Technical Vulnerabilities .............................................................................................. 50 1.4.5 Legal Ambiguity ........................................................................................................... 55 1.4.6 Increasing Range of Lethal Effectiveness ..................................................................... 59 1.4.7 UAV Technological Proliferation Places U.S. Critical Infrastructures at Risk ............ 62 2.0 Don’t Blink: The Exponential Growth of Science and Technology .................................. 65 2.1 The Rise of Artificial Intelligence ......................................................................................... 74 2.2 Neural Networks – An Ideal Artificial Intelligence Architecture for Autonomous Systems ......................................................................................................................................... 85 2.3 Outlining a Strategic Future Vision of Autonomous UAVs ........................................... 106 2.3.1 The United States Air Force’s Identity Crisis in Counterinsurgency Conflicts and Irregular Warfare ..................................................................................................................... 109 2.3.2 Key Technology Enablers Supporting Future Autonomous UAVs ................................ 119 2.3.2.1 Development of Wide-Area “Smart” Sensors ....................................................... 122 2.3.2.2 Development of Networked, Cooperative Micro UAVs ....................................... 135 2.4 Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 141 iii List of Figures Figure 1: Historical Casualty Rates for American Soldiers ........................................................................ 36 Figure 2: Number of U.S. Servicemen Serving in Each War ...................................................................... 37 Figure 3: Dynamics of UAV Usage and Public Pressure ........................................................................... 40 Figure 4: Dynamics of Foreign National Alienation and Militant Attrition .................................................... 49 Figure 5: Dynamics of Exploitable UAV Technical Vulnerabilities ............................................................. 54 Figure 6: Dynamics of Legal Ambiguity of UAV Usage ........................................................................... 58 Figure 7: Dynamics of Psychological Doubling ...................................................................................... 61 Figure 8: Magic Penny’s Value throughout the Month.............................................................................. 68 Figure 9: Psychological Misrepresentation of Exponential Growth .............................................................. 69 Figure 10: Simple Biological Neural Network Overview .......................................................................... 80 Figure 11: Classical Conditioning Overview .......................................................................................... 87 Figure 12: Synaptic Transmission Overview .......................................................................................... 88 Figure 13: Neural Substrate of Simple Classical Conditioning ................................................................... 93 Figure 14: Single Unit Activation ........................................................................................................ 98 Figure 15: Summation Junction Algorithm ............................................................................................ 98 Figure 16: Possible Unit Output Values ................................................................................................ 99 Figure 17: Representation of Learning in a Simple Neural Network .......................................................... 101 Figure 18: Gorgon Stare’s Imaging Radius .......................................................................................... 125 Figure 19: ARGUS-IS’ Imaging Radius.............................................................................................. 131 Figure 20: Overview of Autonomous UAV Strategic Vision ................................................................... 141 Figure 21: Overview of Autonomous UAV Advantages and Challenges .................................................... 144 iv Abstract Over the past decade, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have revolutionized how the U.S. engages elusive militants in low-intensity conflicts by allowing the U.S. to project continuous military power without risking combat casualties. While UAV usage promises additional tactical advantages in future conflicts, little agreement exists regarding a strategic vision for UAV research and development, necessary for the U.S. to allocate limited resources among UAV development programs that address national security objectives. The present research makes the case for a future UAV technology evolutionary path leading to fully autonomous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)/strike UAV systems for the United States Air Force that are capable of sensing their environments through multiple modalities, recognizing patterns, and executing appropriate actions in response to their real-time analyses. The thesis addresses enabling technology inroads stemming from major improvements in our understanding of human neural circuitry that promise to enable innovations in the artificial intelligence needed to achieve autonomous system function. Arguments are based on projected military and economic benefits of autonomous systems and extend the historical model established by the CIA’s successful UAV program to unconventional warfare (UW) conflicts that the U.S. Air Force finds itself ill- equipped to handle. Counter-arguments are addressed relating to uncontrolled lethal technology, conflict initiation thresholds, and the vulnerability of overreliance on high-technology systems. In making the case for fully automated UAV technology, research provides a strategic future vision for autonomous UAV usage by highlighting the important interaction of artificial intelligence, “smart” wide-area sensors, and cooperative micro UAVs. v 1.0 Introduction: Welcome to the Postheroic Age “Wonder weapons... my God, I don't see the wonder in them. Killing without heroics, nothing is glorified... nothing is reaffirmed? No heroes, no cowards, no troops, no generals? Only those who are left alive and those who are left dead. I'm glad I won't live to see it.” -Patton (1970 Film) In this 1970 biographical dramatization, General George S. Patton gives this response when asked about his opinion of Germany’s advanced technological military pursuits throughout World War II. Patton’s remarks were mostly directed at V-2 rockets, push-button bombing, and atomic weapons. Such weapons represented “wonder weapons” because they could be