Security Cooperation |Politico-Military Affairs | Intelligence the foreign area officer association journal of INTERNATIONAL VOLUME XVIII // NUMBER 1 // SPRING 2015 AFFAIRS WWW.FAOA.ORG PIVOT2.0ASIA INTEGRATING 05 STRATEGIC AFRICA IN THE COMMUNICATIONS IN REBALANCE TO PACOM HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE ASIA 27 12 NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA IN LATIN AMERICA 24 ECONOMIC REFORM IN VIETNAM 35 US-JAPAN DEFENSE GUIDELINES IN THE 21ST CENTURY 42 POL-MIL LESSONS FROM STILWELL 45 TAIWAN’S 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IWO JIMA REMEMBERED 21 50 BUILDING ASIAN STRATEGIC AIRPOWER CHINA IN COSTA RICA 39 ISSN 1551-8094 The Foreign Area Officer Association Journal of SAVE THE DATE International Affairs is a non-profit publication for Regional and International Affairs professionals. 15-30 August | Election for the 2015-2018 FAO Association Board of Gov- The views expressed are those of the authors, not ernors - 12 members have been self-nominated for 9 positions, including of the Department of Defense, the Armed services 6 current Board members. A list of nominees, with short bio sketches for or any DoD agency, and are intended to advance each, will be published online and by email. Watch for email and website the profession through professional and academic dialog. announcements for voting procedures. SUBSCRIPTIONS & MEMBERSHIPS 22 October | FAOA Black Tie Dinner, featuring Lt. Gen. (ret.) Keith W. Subscription to the journal comes with member- Dayton, Director, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Stud- ship in the association. Membership information ies - Registration will be made available through FAOA.org and email an- may be obtained online at FAOA.org noucements will be sent with details. SUBMISSIONS Contributors should email articles to editor@faoa. org. Further information of submissions, format requirements and assistance can be found on the back cover of this isuue and online at FAOA.org STAFF Graham Plaster, LCDR US Navy Reserves Editor-in-Chief John B. Haseman, COL US Army-Retired Chairman, Editorial Board EDITORIAL BOARD Joseph Bincarousky, MAJ US Air Force Mark Brice Chakwin, COL US Army-Retired Kevin Dougherty, LTC US Army-Retired Mike Ferguson, COL US Army-Retired Jeff Hoffmann Jason C. Howk, MAJ US Army David Mack, LTC US Army-retired Jason Nicholson, LTC US Army Dan Singleton, MAJ US Army Phil Yu, CAPT US Navy Editorial Board coordination on journal submis- sions is conducted via email by board members around the globe. Board members represent varied International Affairs backgrounds from all services including active, civilian, reserve, and retired. If you are interested in serving on the editorial board, please email [email protected] BOARD OF GOVERNORS PRESIDENT: Kurt Marisa, COL, USAF (Ret) VICE PRESIDENT: Jonathan Dunn, MAJ, USA SECRETARY: John Krause, Major, USMC (Ret) TREASURER: Jeffrey S. Hoffmann, USAFR (Ret) EDITOR IN CHIEF: Graham Plaster, LCDR, USNR MONTEREY REP: Mark Chakwin, COL USA (Ret) CONTENT EDITOR: John Haseman, COL USA (Ret) Michael Trahan, COL US Army (Ret) James (“JB”) Shelton, COL USAF (Ret) 2 The FAOA Journal of International Affairs www.faoa.org 3 the foreign area officer association journal of INTERNATIONAL Politico-Military Affairs | Intelligence | Security Cooperation AFFAIRS Volume XVIII, Number 1 — Spring 2015 WWW.FAOA.ORG Congratulations to several of our INSIDE esteemed FAOA Writing Award Winners 05 | INTENT AND RESOLVE: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS IN SUPPORT OF USPACOM FOREIGN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE OPERATIONS, MAJ BRIAN CLOUGH, USAF | LTC ANDREW MORRISON, USA | MAJ MARC WOODWORTH, USAF 12 | THE AMERICAS IN THE BALANCE: NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CHINESE INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA, CDR GEORGE WALBORN II, USNR AWC winner: Colonel Chris Chronis, US Army 21 | NEWS FROM THE FIELD: IWO JIMA TODAY AND MEMOIRES OF YESTERYEAR, MAJ KENT JUSTICE, USA 24 | STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES AND ECONOMIC REFORM IN VIETNAM, LTC STEPHEN FRANK, USAF 27 | FROM PIVOT TO SYMMETRY? INTEGRATING AFRICA IN THE REBALANCE TO ASIA, LTC PIERRE GAUDILLIERE, FRENCH AIR FORCE 35 | ENHANCING US-JAPAN DEFENSE GUIDELINES FOR 21ST CENTURY CHALLENGES, CAPT BRENT SADLER, USN 39 | CHINA AND COSTA RICA: A NEW BEGINNING? DR. R. EVAN ELLIS, PHD JCWS 15-02 winners (L-R): CDR Qasem Alharbi, Royal 42 | GETTING IT WRONG IN CHINA: POL-MIL LESSONS Saudi Naval Forces, MAJ Andrew Hubbard, USA, Maj Glen Langdon, USAF, LCDR Mark Steliga, USN FROM THE STILWELL EXPERIENCE, 1942-1944, MAJ JASON HALUB, USA 45 | LOST IN TRANSLATION: TAIWAN, NATIONAL IDENTITY, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ISLAND’S 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, MS. CINDY LIU 50 | A FOUNDATION FOR ASIAN COLLECTIVE SECURITY: BUILDING AN ASIAN STRATEGIC AIRPOWER CAPABILITY, LCDR ROBERT BAIR, USN | LT.COL. IVAN KANAPATHY, USMC | LTC SCOTT RALEIGH, USAF 55 | FAOA ACTIVITIES IN MONTEREY | COL MARK CHAKWIN, USA(RET.) JAWS AY 14-15 winner: Lt Col David Dengler with Dr. Coyt Hargus 2 The FAOA Journal of International Affairs www.faoa.org 3 LETTER from the EDITOR ear Foreign Affairs Professionals, The Their labor pool had declined in 2012 by political rhetoric of a rebalance to Asia is 3.45m for the first time in five decades. being tested. What does a “pivot” actually The ratio of taxpayers to pensioners was imply when the challenges we face are expected to drop from 5:1 to 2:1 by 2030. ubiquitous? As the articles in this edition Since then, we’ve seen that that the one of theD Journal will attest, the geopolitics of Asia touch child policy was not the only thing keeping every corner of the globe; and what sometimes looks like Chinese families from having more mismanagement of human capital – sending PACOM FAOs Graham Plaster children. In many cases, having a second Editor in Chief, to CENTCOM or SOUTHCOM AORs – might in the end provide FAO Association child has been cost prohibitive (as it turns the strategic advantage we actually need in the region. Journal out, fiscal constraints exist at every level). What does a “pivot” imply, when the nature of our China still faces a quickly aging society challenge seems primarily fiscal? While military build-up is Follow on Twitter with too few young people to support certainly occurring, the deeper concern for several years has @FAOAssociation parents and grandparents. This will have been focused on budgets, jobs, and debt. Congress’s recent significant geopolitical effects going into approval for the fast-tracking of TPP negotiations reinforces 2030.6 the fact that our soft power is closely tied to the hard currency China has also witnessed a surprising religious revival of US jobs and GDP, which are in turn closely tied to the Asian over the past 40 years, with a significant increase in Christians. economy. As Secretary Carter said recently, getting the TPP Chinese Protestants have grown by an average of 10 percent finalized is “as important” as getting another aircraft carrier annually since 1979. By some estimates, China is on track in the budget and the financial ties are “an important part to have more Christians than registered communists within of the strength of our country [and] a sign of our strategic the next year and perhaps the world’s largest population influence.”1 of Christians by 2030. The cultural shifts afoot in mainland As of March 2015, China and Japan each held nearly China and among Chinese business endeavors abroad will $1.26 trillion in U.S. debt.2 Flashback five years: Both Admiral be an interesting phenomenon to watch. How will this affect Mullen while CJCS and Secretary Clinton while at State fertility, politics and the economy?7 asserted that the national debt was a pressing national As the US projects a rebalance to Asia, the Chinese may security concern. “[Debt] poses a national security threat in be concerned over what appears to be a US strategy of two ways,” said Clinton in 2010 during a Q&A at the Council containment. Increased US military exchanges with Vietnam on Foreign Relations, “it undermines our capacity to act in and Cambodia, and new agreements with the Philippines our own interest, and it does constrain us where constraint resemble efforts to build a strategic hedge in the Pacific. In may be undesirable.”3 The following year, Admiral Mullen anticipation, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been was speaking to the Business Executives for National rapidly modernizing, thanks to a growing budget. Over the Security when he said, “I believe the single, biggest threat to past year, relations among East Asia’s three most successful our national security is our debt, so I also believe we have economies—Japan, South Korea and China—have been every responsibility to help eliminate that threat.”4 Since slowly but steadily improving. China, just like the U.S., would then, sequestration and continuing resolutions have further prefer power projection over war. There is an old adage that hobbled our ability to conduct long term planning. While says, if you take out a small loan, the bank owns you. If you there is a silver lining to this in that it forces us to cut fat, it take out a large loan, you own the bank. Our debt to Asian also creates a strategic moment for competing nations to nations locks us in a complex web that military leaders must take advantage. navigate with tools beyond mere military might. In the end, Our fiscal future is tied to our cybersecurity. While FAOs debt leads to a kind of containment of both the lender and are not cyber warriors per se, increasingly we are all connected the borrower. Should this be our aim? A strategic stalemate? to the internet of things via our personal and professional Does this create the most balance – a kind of mutually technology. As a globalizing force, these technologies create assured financial destruction? new virtual foreign areas and make us all digital diplomats.