THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION: A demographic bridge to America’s diverse future William H. Frey January 2018 Overview The millennial generation, over 75 million strong will affect their current and future quality of is America’s largest—eclipsing the current size of life—including their health and well-being as this the postwar baby boom generation. While much generation ages. attention has been given to this generation’s unique attributes—its technological savvy, its The national picture of a population that is tolerance and independence, and its aversion to diversifying in its younger ages while its white large institutions—one aspect of millennials is population is rapidly aging is an oversimplification most relevant to its future impact on the nation: because it does not account for variation among its racial and ethnic diversity. states and metropolitan areas. Although the public and media attention tends to focus on the The millennial generation is the demographic lives of millennials in high-profile markets such as “bridge” to the nation’s diverse future. By the mid- New York, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco, 2040s, racial and ethnic minorities are projected local contexts for the social and economic to make up over half of all Americans, but the opportunities available to millennials differ widely 2020 census will show that the postmillennial across the country. generation—people who are younger than millennials—will already be minority white. This This report, its appendices, and its associated means that millennials, now 44 percent minority, interactive website examine the demographic will pave the way for the generations behind them makeup of millennials for the nation, the 100 as workers, consumers, and leaders in business largest metropolitan areas, and all 50 states. and government in their acceptance by and With an emphasis on its unique racial diversity, participation in tomorrow’s more racially diverse this report compares the millennial generation America. with earlier counterparts at the same stage of life and assesses how different segments of the As a bridge to the future, this highly diverse millennial population are faring, as well as where generation will face both opportunities and they are living. Most notably, it postulates how challenges. Race and ethnic disparities in millennials can represent a demographic bridge education attainment, family formation, income, to the future—helping to close the racial and and housing persist among the millennials. These cultural generation gap that, as recent politics differences need to be recognized because they have shown, is dividing the nation. 2 Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program Table of contents Introduction 4 Who are millennials and how distinct are they? 6 Millennial size and diversity Millennials’ unique attributes reflect their diversity Language spoken at home, immigration status, and interracial marriages Marital status and household relationships Education attainment Homeownership Financial security Where are millennials living? 15 Growth and share of millennials in metropolitan areas and states Racial and ethnic diversity among metropolitan areas and states Millennials in urban cores, suburbs, and exurbs How do millennials differ on education and poverty across metropolitan areas and states? 24 Education Poverty How will millennials serve as a “bridge” across generations? 31 Millennials and the cultural generation gap Geography of the cultural generation gap Projecting millennials’ role into the future Conclusion 40 Appendix A: Race-ethnic composition of millennial population, 100 largest metropolitan areas 42 The millennial generation: A demographic bridge to America’s diverse future 3 Introduction The millennial generation, over 75 million strong markets such as New York, Washington, D.C., and is America’s largest—eclipsing the current size San Francisco, local contexts for the social and of the postwar baby boom generation. Now economic opportunities available to millennials all fully adults, millennials make up nearly a differ widely across the country. quarter of the total U.S. population, 30 percent of the voting age population, and almost two- For example, in Bakersfield, Calif., the millennial fifths of the working age population. While much population is 59 percent Hispanic and 30 percent attention has been given to this generation’s white; and among those ages 25-34, 29 percent unique attributes—its technological savvy, its are in poverty and only 14 percent graduated tolerance and independence, and its aversion to from college. In Minneapolis-St Paul, 71 percent large institutions—one aspect of millennials is of millennials are white; and among those ages most relevant to its future impact on the nation: 25-34, just 10 percent are in poverty and 47 its racial and ethnic diversity. percent are college graduates. By virtue of their distinct demographic profiles, each area provides The millennial generation is the demographic different opportunities and challenges for “bridge” to the nation’s diverse future. By the mid- millennials to succeed in serving as bridges to the 2040s, racial and ethnic minorities are projected next generation. to make up over half of all Americans, but the 2020 census will show that the postmillennial At the local level, millennials affect important generation—people who are younger than dynamics that influence housing markets, millennials—will already be minority white. This educational institutions, tax bases, and labor means that millennials, now 44 percent minority, forces, not to mention their implications for will pave the way for the generations behind them altering local economies, levels of income as workers, consumers, and leaders in business inequality, and needs for promoting greater and government in their acceptance by and racial and social inclusion. As such, local participation in tomorrow’s more racially diverse political officials, industry leaders, university America. and community college networks, and nonprofit institutions need to be made aware of changes As a bridge to the future, this highly diverse this new adult generation will bring. generation will face both opportunities and challenges. Race and ethnicity disparities in This report, its appendices, and its associated education attainment, family formation, income, interactive website examine the demographic and housing persist among millennials. These makeup of millennials for the nation, the 100 differences need to be recognized because they largest metropolitan areas, and all 50 states. will affect their current and future quality of With an emphasis on its unique racial diversity, life—including their health and well-being as this this report compares the millennial generation generation ages. with earlier counterparts at the same stage of life and assesses how different segments of the Moreover, the national picture of a population millennial population are faring, as well as where that is diversifying in its younger ages while they are living. Most notably, it postulates how its white population is rapidly aging is an millennials can represent a demographic bridge oversimplification because it does not account for to the future—helping to close the racial and variation among states and metropolitan areas. cultural generation gap that, as recent politics Although the public and media attention tends have shown, is dividing the nation. to focus on the lives of millennials in high-profile 4 Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program This report addresses four questions: In answering these questions, this report draws from a variety of U.S. Census Bureau data, 1. Who are millennials and how distinct are including the Current Population Survey, the they? American Community Survey, census estimates 2. Where are millennials living? and projections, as well as historical decennial 3. How do millennials differ on education and censuses. It also presents metropolitan area poverty across metropolitan areas and projections conducted by the author.1 Millennials states? are defined as persons born between 1981 and 4. How will millennials serve as a bridge across 1997. In some parts of the report, special focus generations? is given to younger millennials, ages 18-24, and older millennials, ages 25-34, as these groups represent different stages of the young adult cycle. The millennial generation: A demographic bridge to America’s diverse future 5 Who are millennials and how distinct are they? The “millennial” label is applied to a generation Millennials are distinct from earlier young adult with birth years of 1981 through 1997, which generations in one important demographic followed the “birth dearth” period of Generation respect: their racial and ethnic diversity. Overall, X (born 1965-1980) , which was preceded by the millennials are 55.8 percent white and nearly 30 baby boom generation (born 1946-1964). The percent “new minorities”— Hispanic, Asian, and exact dates of the millennial generation vary those identifying as two or more races. In 2000, among researchers.2 However, as with the baby when millennials were just beginning to turn 18, boomers, the millennials’ distinction is associated young adults were 63 percent white. In 1980, when not just with their large size—at 75.3 million, the occupied by baby boomers, young adults were 78 millennial generation has now surpassed the baby percent white. The large waves of immigration to boomers—but also with their unique attributes in the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s, especially from terms