FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2015 - 2035 OK 15-0814 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2015-2035 Table of Contents FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS .................................................................................................................................................... 1 REVIEW OF 2014 .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY .................................................................................................................................................. 8 COMMERCIAL AVIATION .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 World Travel Demand .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 U.S. Travel Demand............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger ................................................................................................................................................. 16 Domestic Passenger Markets ............................................................................................................................................................ 18 International Passenger Markets....................................................................................................................................................... 22 Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo........................................................................................................................................................ 24 International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region ...................................................................................................................... 25 U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2014 Financial Results ......................................................................................................... 26 U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2014 Aircraft Fleets .............................................................................................................. 29 GENERAL AVIATION ............................................................................................................................................................... 31 FAA OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................................................................... 34 FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS .......................................................................................................................................... 38 FISCAL YEARS 2015 – 2035 ............................................................................................................................................. 38 ECONOMIC FORECASTS ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 World Economy .................................................................................................................................................................. 45 AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS ....................................................................................................................... 47 Commercial Aviation Forecasts .......................................................................................................................................... 47 Domestic Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................. 48 International Markets ........................................................................................................................................................................ 53 U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers ............................................................................................................................................ 53 U.S. Flag Air Carriers .......................................................................................................................................................... 55 Commercial Air Carriers – Air Cargo .................................................................................................................................. 57 Commercial Aircraft Fleet .................................................................................................................................................. 58 General Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................ 60 FAA Operations Forecasts .................................................................................................................................................. 65 FAA and Contract Towers .................................................................................................................................................................. 65 En‐route Centers ............................................................................................................................................................................... 66 UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS ........................................................................................................................................... 68 UAS Test Sites ..................................................................................................................................................................... 68 UAS Center of Excellence ................................................................................................................................................... 68 Section 333 Exemptions ..................................................................................................................................................... 69 Certificates of Waiver or Authorization (COAs).................................................................................................................. 69 UAS in the Arctic ................................................................................................................................................................ 70 UAS Forecast ...................................................................................................................................................................... 70 UAS Small Commercial Forecast ........................................................................................................................................ 70 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION ............................................................................................................................... 71 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 71 Review of 2014 ................................................................................................................................................................... 72 Global Orbital Launch Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 73 Suborbital Reusable Vehicle Forecast ................................................................................................................................ 74 RISKS TO THE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................. 76 APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................ 79 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................................. 80 ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 84 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2015-2035 Passengers ......................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Revenue Passenger Miles ................................................................................................................................................... 85 Available Seat Miles ........................................................................................................................................................... 85 Load Factor ........................................................................................................................................................................ 86 Yield ..................................................................................................................................................................................