Hydrodynamic Modeling Report for the Big Bend Estuary Systems Hydrodynamic Modeling Report for the Big Bend Estuary System November 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... 2 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 6 1.0 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................... 7 2.0 MODEL SELECTION .................................................................................................................. 7 2.1 EFDC HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL ...................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 EFDC MODEL HISTORY ................................................................................................................................... 7 3.0 BIG BEND MODEL SET-UP AND CALIBRATION ................................................................ 8 3.1 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MODEL STUDY AREA ................................................................................... 8 3.1.2 Spring Coast Estuarine Area ................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.3 St. Joseph Sound and Clearwater Harbor ........................................................................................... 10 3.2 MODEL SEGMENTATION ................................................................................................................................. 11 3.3 BIG BEND ESTUARINE SYSTEM MONITORING STATIONS................................................................................ 14 3.4 HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL FORCING CONDITIONS ........................................................................................... 19 Meteorological Factors ................................................................................................................................................... 19 Freshwater flows and temperature .................................................................................................................................. 19 Point Sources .................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Offshore Boundary WSE and Water Temperature .......................................................................................................... 19 Offshore Boundary Salinity ............................................................................................................................................ 19 3.5 HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION ANALYSIS .......................................................... 20 Water Surface Elevation ................................................................................................................................................. 20 Salinity ............................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Temperature .................................................................................................................................................................... 20 4.0 BIG BEND MODELING RESULTS ......................................................................................... 21 4.1 WATER SURFACE ELEVATION MODELING RESULTS ...................................................................................... 21 4.2 SALINITY MODELING RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.1 Calibration ........................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.2 Validation ............................................................................................................................................ 45 4.3 WATER TEMPERATURE MODELING RESULTS ................................................................................................. 65 4.3.1 Calibration ........................................................................................................................................... 65 4.3.2 Validation ............................................................................................................................................ 84 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................ 103 . 2 Hydrodynamic Modeling Report for the Big Bend Estuary System November 2012 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1.1 Location of the Big Bend estuarine system and its contributing watersheds. ..................... 9 Figure 3.1.2 Spring Coast Estuarine areas ............................................................................................ 10 Figure 3.1.3 St. Joseph Sound and Clearwater Harbor ......................................................................... 11 Figure 3.2.1 Grid for the Big Bend estuarine system ............................................................................ 12 Figure 3.2.2 Grid Bathymetry for the Big Bend estuarine system ........................................................ 13 Figure 3.2.3 Watershed Input Locations for the Big Bend estuarine system ....................................... 13 Figure 3.2.4 Point Source Locations for the Big Bend estuarine system .............................................. 14 Figure 3.3.1 Monitoring station locations in the Big Bend estuarine system from Apalachicola to Florida Bend 17 Figure 3.3.2 Monitoring station locations in the Big Bend estuarine system from Florida Bend to Clearwater 18 Figure 4.1.1 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated WSE at Apalachicola Bay ................ 22 Figure 4.1.2 1997-2002 validation measured versus simulated WSE at Apalachicola Bay ................. 22 Figure 4.1.3 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated WSE at Cedar Key ............................ 23 Figure 4.1.4 1997-2002 validation measured versus simulated WSE at Cedar Key ............................. 23 Figure 4.1.5 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated WSE at Clearwater Harbor ............... 24 Figure 4.1.6. 1997-2002 validation measured versus simulated WSE at Clearwater Harbor ................ 24 Figure 4.2.1 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=18 J=10 ......................... 26 Figure 4.2.2 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=17 J=18 ......................... 27 Figure 4.2.3 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=20 J=31 ......................... 27 Figure 4.2.4 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=22 J=39 ......................... 28 Figure 4.2.5 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=30 J=44 ......................... 28 Figure 4.2.6 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=24 J=47 ......................... 29 Figure 4.2.7 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=27 J=53 ......................... 29 Figure 4.2.8 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=24 J=59 ......................... 30 Figure 4.2.9 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=24 J=62 ......................... 30 Figure 4.2.10 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=24 J=70 ......................... 31 Figure 4.2.11 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=23 J=78 ......................... 31 Figure 4.2.12 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=25 J=78 ......................... 32 Figure 4.2.13 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=21 J=79 ......................... 32 Figure 4.2.14 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=14 J=85 ......................... 33 Figure 4.2.15 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=13 J=89 ......................... 33 Figure 4.2.16 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=16 J=92 ......................... 34 Figure 4.2.17 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=16 J=102 ....................... 34 Figure 4.2.18 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=18 J=110 ....................... 35 Figure 4.2.19 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=22 J=110 ....................... 35 Figure 4.2.20 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=26 J=128 ....................... 36 Figure 4.2.21 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=31 J=128 ................... 36 Figure 4.2.22 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=21 J=129 ....................... 37 Figure 4.2.23 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=23 J=133 ....................... 37 Figure 4.2.24 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=21 J=134 ....................... 38 Figure 4.2.25 2003-2009 calibration measured versus simulated salinity at I=26 J=145