Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies PANEL ON PUBLIC AFFAIRS An MIT Energy Initiative Workshop Report April 29, 2010 Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies PANEL ON PUBLIC AFFAIRS An MIT Energy Initiative Workshop Report April 29, 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT Energy Workshop on Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies | April 29, 2010 PREFACE About the Workshop on Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies On April 29th, 2010, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Energy Initiative (MITEI), together with the American Physical Society’s (APS) Panel on Public Affairs (POPA) and the Materials Research Society (MRS), co-sponsored a Workshop on Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies that took place at MITEI’s headquarters at MIT. The possibility that important new technologies for the generation, transmission, storage, or use of energy might be constrained by limitations on the availability of certain elements has only recently attracted signifi cant atten- tion. The purpose of the APS/MRS/MITEI workshop was to bring together experts in the diverse areas that bear on this novel issue and to try to determine the context, scope, complexity, and fi nally, the seriousness of the problem. The workshop also served as the kickoff for an APS/MRS study of energy-critical elements that will attempt to draw conclusions and recommend policy on this subject. This report summarizes the presentations and discussions that took place at the workshop. The core of the report is a rapporteur’s overview of the information presented by keynote speakers and the participants’ comments and points of view as they emerged in extensive discussion sessions. The report identifi es many of the key issues that will dominate the discussion of energy- critical elements in the future. A summary of key issues and themes, gleaned from the presenta- tions and discussions, precedes the full rapporteur’s report. In keeping with the exploratory nature of the meeting, however, the report refrains from drawing conclusions and making recommendations. The issues at hand span an enormous range of disciplines including mining, mineral extraction and processing, mineralogy, geochemistry, economic geology, materials research, physical chemistry, condensed matter physics, and the associated engineering technologies. The political, geopolitical, and economic aspects of the problems cannot be ignored. The workshop brought together experts from all these fi elds to focus on whether constraints on availability pose a fundamental problem for the large-scale deployment of novel energy technologies. Participants came from diverse backgrounds and included approximately 40 representatives of academia, government, and industry. The attendees and their affi liations are given in Appendix VI. This invitation-only event was designed to open perspectives and elicit the greatest possible exchange of views, as is appropriate for a meeting that defi nes the beginning of the APS/MRS process. The workshop was organized around six topical “white papers” commissioned from experts. Most white papers were circulated in advance, allowing other invitees to read and react. Several participants either asked or were chosen to prepare responses to the white papers. Two of the responses were so pertinent that we decided to reproduce them at length in this report along with the commissioned white papers. During the workshop itself, 30 minutes was devoted to a synopsis of each white paper. Each synopsis was followed by 30 minutes of discussion, including formal response(s) if appropriate. Further open discussions were held at the end of the morning and afternoon sessions. The workshop closed with a summary given by co-chair Jon Price. The focus of the conference was on constraints on availability, whether they are real, and if so, what might be done about them. The constraints might be fundamental, geologic, technical, socioeconomic, political, or economic. Recent conferences have focused on specifi c elements, 2 PREFACE rare earths or lithium, for example. The APS/MRS/MITEI workshop focused, instead, on issues, introducing specifi c elements for illustration. The morning session was devoted to laying out the situation for three specifi c examples: rare earths, tellurium, and helium. In the afternoon the attention turned to crosscutting issues such as the challenges of developing a substitute for a scarce material; the way that information on mineral production and reserves is gathered by the Minerals Information Team of the US Geological Survey; and the way that other countries have responded to potential shortfalls of energy-critical elements. The workshop was conducted under the Chatham House rule to stimulate fuller discussion of critical issues. That is, with the exception of the white papers and the prepared remarks of respondents, there are no specifi c attributions in this report. The workshop organizers would like to thank the workshop participants for sharing their time and insight, and for enabling us to have so productive a meeting with such a diverse group of experts. We thank the authors of the white papers and responses for allowing us to use their presentation materials in this report, and the participants who served as “scientifi c secretaries” during the discussion sessions. We thank the APS, MRS, and of course, MITEI and its director, Ernie Moniz, for their support. We are grateful to Ms. Jeanette Russo of the APS and Ms. Karen Gibson of MITEI without whose organizational support this workshop would have been impossible. We would like to thank Ms. Rebecca Marshall-Howarth of MITEI for editorial support of the Workshop Report. Finally, we wish to thank Dr. Qudsia Ejaz, who served as rapporteur for this conference. Dr. Ejaz drafted the Rapporteur’s Report from the white papers, the discussion summaries prepared by scientifi c secretaries, a recording of the meeting, and her own notes on the discussions. She also supervised the preparation and production of the published report. Without her help this report would not have been possible. Bob Jaffe and Jon Price, Co-Chairs 3 MIT Energy Workshop on Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies | April 29, 2010 CONTENTS PREFACE – Bob Jaffe and Jon Price. 2 INTRODUCTION – Bob Jaffe . 5 SUMMARY OF KEY ISSUES AND THEMES. 9 RAPPORTEUR’S REPORT, Qudsia Ejaz, Postdoctoral Associate . 13 CHAPTER 1 – Morning Program: Case Studies of Materials 1.1 Rare Earths and Related Issues . 13 1.2 Cadmium/Tellurium and Related Issues . 18 1.3 Helium and Related Issues . 24 1.4 General Discussion — Morning Program . 30 CHAPTER 2 – Afternoon Program: Policy Challenges . 32 2.1 Substitutional Research in Physics, Chemistry, and Materials Science. 32 2.2 Tracking Critical Elements in the US . 38 2.3 Materials Policies of Other Nations . 43 2.4 General Discussion — Afternoon Program . 47 CHAPTER 3 – Supplementary Presentations. 49 3.1 A Communications and Outreach Perspective – Dayan Anderson. 49 3.2 Considering Resource Availability for Energy Technologies – Randy Kirchain. 51 3.3 Advantage Canada: Materials-Related Policies – Leonard Surges . 54 CHAPTER 4 – Summary and Concluding Remarks. 56 APPENDICES. 60 I. WHITE PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS BY KEYNOTE SPEAKERS . 61 I.A White Paper, Anthony Mariano, The Nature of Economic REE and Y Minerals on a World Level. 61 I.B Presentation, Anthony Mariano, The Nature of Economic REE and Y Minerals on a World Level. 77 I.C Paper, James C. Lancaster, Selling the Nation’s Helium Reserve. 95 I.D Presentation, Cyrus Wadia, Mined Resource Constraints on Solar Energy and Battery Storage Potential. 105 I.E White Paper, Scott F. Sibley, Supply of and Demand for Selected Energy Related Mineral Commodities . 111 I.F Presentation, Jung-Chan Bae, Strategies and Perspectives for Securing Rare Metals in Korea . 123 II. WHITE PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS BY SUPPLEMENTARY SPEAKERS. 137 II.A White Paper, Dayan Anderson, A Communications and Outreach Perspective . 137 II.B Presentation, Randy Kirchain, Considering Resource Availability for Energy Technologies . 143 II.C Presentation, Leonard Surges, Advantage Canada: Materials-Related Policies . 157 III. FORMAL RESPONSES FROM PARTICIPANTS. 161 III.A Diana Bauer, Response to Mr. Sibley’s Presentation . 162 III.B Marc Humphries, Response to Mr. Sibley’s Presentation . 163 III.C Brad Roscoe, Response to Dr. Lancaster’s Presentation . 165 IV. ADDITIONAL MATERIAL . 167 IV.A Jon Price, Leading Producers of Energy-Critical Elements . 167 V. SYMPOSIUM AGENDA. 170 VI. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS . 172 VII. LIST OF APS/MRS STUDY PARTICIPANTS . 173 VIII. ACRONYMS. 174 4 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION Workshop on Critical Elements for New Energy Technologies The potential impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on climate and the pressure of increasing demand for energy have stimulated research into novel sources of energy and novel ways to store, transmit, and transform it. Advances in physics, chemistry, and material science have allowed researchers to identify elements with properties that can be fi nely tuned to their specifi c needs and to employ them in novel technologies. Elements like lanthanum, neodymium, tellu- rium, indium, or gallium, which were once laboratory curiosities, are now routinely mentioned when novel energy technologies are discussed. Many of these elements are not at present mined, refi ned, or traded in large quantities. The spectrum of novel applications of rare elements is not limited to energy technologies. Ubiquitous devices like cell phones contain many elements that had few commercial applications 30 years ago. As Dr. Jung-Chan Bae suggested in his talk, we may be leaving the “Steel Age” and entering a “Rare Elements Age,” when these unfamiliar substances will play an increasingly impor tant, if surreptitious, role in our lives. Extreme variations in the price of some of these elements over the past decade hint at a complex interplay between rapidly growing demand and limited supply that may become more widespread in the near future. Although the impact of constraints on rare element supplies may reach into every area of the economy, our concern focuses on their effect on new energy technologies.