EVALUATION MID-TERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE GEORGIA ECONOMIC PROSPERITY INITIATIVE June, 2013 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by Mendez, England & Associates and NORC. MID-TERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE GEORGIA ECONOMIC PROSPERITY INITIATIVE (EPI) Final Report Prepared under Contract Number: AID-114-TO-13-00002, Task Order No: AID-113-I-13- 0001 Submitted to: USAID/Georgia Submitted by: Steve Butler (Team Leader) Nana Adeishvili (Team Member) George Murvanidze (Team Member) Contractor: Mendez England & Associates 4300 Montgomery Avenue, Suite 103 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301- 652 -4334 www.mendezengland.com DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 1 Evaluation Purpose and Evaluation Questions.............................................................................. 1 Project Background ............................................................................................................................ 1 Evaluation Methodology .................................................................................................................... 2 Evaluation Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 2 Main Findings ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Main Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 4 Main Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 4 1.0 EVALUATION PURPOSES AND PRIORITY QUESTIONS ............................. 1 1.1 Evaluation Purpose .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 EPI Activities ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Evaluation Questions .............................................................................................................. 2 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND .................................................................................... 2 2.1 Historical Context ................................................................................................................. 2 2.2 EPI Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 5 3.0 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY ........................................................................ 5 4.0 EVALUATION LIMITATIONS .............................................................................. 7 5.0 FINDINGS ................................................................................................................ 8 5.1 General Findings On Project Activities............................................................................... 8 5.2 Component 1: Business Enabling Environment .............................................................. 12 5.2.1 High Level Indicators for Component 1 .......................................................... 12 5.2.2 Required Outputs and Targeted Results of Component 1 ......................... 13 5.2.3 Other Accomplishments of Component 1 ..................................................... 13 5.3 Component 2: Agricultural Sector ................................................................................... 20 5.3.1 High Level Indicators for Component 2 .......................................................... 20 5.3.2 Required Outputs and Targeted Results for Component 2 ................... 2423 5.3.3 Other Accomplishments of Component 2 .................................................... 24 5.4 Component 3: Manufacturing and Services .................................................................... 20 5.4.1 High Level Indicators for Component 3 ...................................................... 2827 5.4.2 Required Outputs and Targeted Results for Component Three .............. 29 5.4.3 Other Accomplishments of Component 3 ................................................. 3029 5.5. Component 4: Cross-Cutting Activities .......................................................................... 38 5.5.1 High Level Results for Component 4 ........................................................... 3938 5.5.2 Required Outputs and Targeted Results for Component 4 ....................... 39 5.5.3 Other Accomplishments of Component 4 ..................................................... 39 6.0 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................... 4342 6.1 Priority Question One ........................................................................................................ 43 6.2 Priority Question Two ........................................................................................................ 44 6.3 Priority Question Three ..................................................................................................... 45 6.4 Priority Question Four ........................................................................................................ 46 6.5 Priority Question Five ......................................................................................................... 47 6.6 Priority Question Six ........................................................................................................... 49 7.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................... 4948 7.1 General Recommendations ............................................................................................ 4948 7.2 Component 1: Business Climate ................................................................................... 5049 7.3 Component 2: Agricultural Sector ............................................................................... 5150 7.4 Component 3: Manufacturing & Services .................................................................... 5150 7.5 Component 4: Cross-cutting Activities ........................................................................... 51 ANNEXES .................................................................................................................... 5453 ANNEX 1: STATEMENT OF WORK ..................................................................................... 5554 ANNEX 2: EVALUATION METHODOLOGY .................................................................... 6160 ANNEX 3: LIST OF PERSONS INTERVIEWED................................................................... 6766 ANNEX 4: SCRIPTS .................................................................................................................... 7170 ANNEX 6: LIST OF DOCUMENTS CONSULTED ............................................................ 9190 ANNEX 7: WORK PLAN AND SCHEDULE ....................................................................... 9493 ANNEX 8: OUTPUTS AND RESULTS TABLES ............................................................. 137136 LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 1: Georgian GDP Growth (Mil. GEL) Figure 2: Year to Year Nominal GDP % Growth Figure 3: Long Term Trends in Mandarin Production (Tons) Figure 4: Year to Year % Growth of Production in Nut and Citrus Sectors 2005-2012 Figure 5: Year to Year % Growth in Value of Nut Exports for Sector and EPI Farmers Figure 6: Year to Year % Growth in Value of Mandarin Exports for Sector and EPI Farmers Figure 7. Growth in Georgian Total Exports 2005-2012 Figure 8. Growth in Apparel Exports 2001-2012 LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Growth of External Trade 2007 – 2012 (Mil. GEL) Table 2. Key Person Interviews Table 3: Discussion Groups Table 4: Status of Laws and Regulatory Acts Promoted by EPI Table 5: Aggregate High Level Performance Indicators for AG, End of Year 2 Table 6: Increase in Yields per Hectare (Productivity) For EPI Farmers Table 7: Increases in Exports Table 8: Key Performance Benchmarks for the AG Component at End of Year 2 Table 9: Aggregate High Level Performance Indicators for M&S Component, End of Year 2 Table 10. EPI Reported Gains in M&S Productivity Indicators Table 11: Key Performance Benchmarks for the AG Component at End of Year 2 Table 12: Aggregate High Level Performance Indicators for Cross Cutting Activities Component, End of Year 2 ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AG EPI Agricultural Component ANSI American National Standards Institute BAS Business Advisory Services BDS Business Development Services BEE EPI Business Environment Component BPR Business Process Reengineering BSP Business Service Provider CC EPI Cross Cutting Activities Component U.S. Department of Commerce Commercial Law Development CLDP Project CSPA Competition and State Procurement Agency CTC Caucasus Transportation Corridor DEA Georgian Data Exchange Agency DMC Destination Management Company EIBTM Exhibition for the Incentive Business Travel and Meetings EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ELFA Equipment Leasing and Finance Association EPI Economic