Agulhas Applied Knowledge Impact Analysis of Projects Implemented by LHSP through a Perception Study Baseline Report 31 July 2020 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 2. Introduction and methodology .......................................................................................... 4 Research background ............................................................................................................. 4 Communities .......................................................................................................................... 5 Survey structure and ToR alignment ..................................................................................... 6 Research approach ................................................................................................................ 7 Sampling ................................................................................................................................. 7 Limitations ............................................................................................................................. 9 Understanding survey data .................................................................................................. 10 Respondent profile .............................................................................................................. 10 3. Context and Outlook ........................................................................................................ 13 North Governorate .............................................................................................................. 13 South Governorate .............................................................................................................. 15 Mount Lebanon Governorate .............................................................................................. 19 Bekaa Governorate .............................................................................................................. 21 4. Outlook in Lebanon .......................................................................................................... 26 Community belonging .......................................................................................................... 28 Impact of 17 October events on outlook ............................................................................. 31 5. Quality of Services and Livelihood Opportunities ............................................................. 34 Change in quality of services ............................................................................................... 34 Livelihood opportunities ...................................................................................................... 41 6. Grievance Mechanisms .................................................................................................... 44 7. Relevance of Services ....................................................................................................... 48 North .................................................................................................................................... 48 South .................................................................................................................................... 50 Mount Lebanon .................................................................................................................... 51 Bekaa .................................................................................................................................... 53 How the municipality identify and prioritises needs ........................................................... 55 Skills and funding ................................................................................................................. 55 8. Community Engagement and Resident Agency ............................................................... 58 Perceptions of marginalisation ............................................................................................ 59 Participating in events ......................................................................................................... 60 Bekaa .................................................................................................................................... 63 North .................................................................................................................................... 64 South .................................................................................................................................... 65 Mount Lebanon .................................................................................................................... 66 9. Project-Specific Questions ................................................................................................ 68 Awareness of interventions ................................................................................................. 69 Project attribution................................................................................................................ 70 10. Tensions and Violence .................................................................................................. 73 Causes of disputes ............................................................................................................... 74 Resolving disputes ............................................................................................................... 76 North .................................................................................................................................... 78 South .................................................................................................................................... 79 Mount Lebanon .................................................................................................................... 79 Bekaa .................................................................................................................................... 80 Perceptions of violence ........................................................................................................ 81 11. Taking an Integrated Approach to Programming ........................................................ 83 Violence-Free Schools .......................................................................................................... 83 Municipal policing ................................................................................................................ 86 North .................................................................................................................................... 87 South .................................................................................................................................... 88 Mount Lebanon .................................................................................................................... 89 Bekaa .................................................................................................................................... 90 Fake News ............................................................................................................................ 91 12. Additional Statistical Analysis ...................................................................................... 96 Annex 1 – Interview List............................................................................................................ 99 Focus group discussions .................................................................................................................. 100 Annex 2 – List of figures and tables ........................................................................................ 102 List of figures ................................................................................................................................... 102 List of tables .................................................................................................................................... 104 LHSP Baseline Report 1 1. Executive Summary In April 2020 the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) retained Agulhas Applied Knowledge (‘Agulhas’) to prepare a baseline assessment of projects implemented by the Lebanon Host Communities Support Programme (‘LHSP’), through a perception study (hereafter, ‘the project’). The research team launched data collection in June and provided the UNDP with initial indicator data in July 2020. This report contains our analysis of the survey results. Our key findings are as follows. • Respondents across our sample reported being significantly adversely affected by the current economic and political crisis in Lebanon: 17% were no longer able to afford food and 64% stated that they were buying less food. Syrians and those in South Governorate were more likely to report being unable to buy food. Only 8% of our sample reported the same level of spending on non-essential items and could be described as unaffected by the crisis. • Nearly half, 45%, of the Lebanese respondents surveyed were not optimistic about their future in the country and were planning to leave Lebanon. Being young or unemployed strongly correlated with a desire to leave Lebanon. o Unemployed respondents did not believe that the 17 October protests would have a positive impact on their futures and