Mexico A Special Report From Oil and Gas Investor and Global Business Reports Photo courtesy of Nabors. MEXICO OIL AND GAS Mexico’s Energy Reform: an opportunity in three generations Mexico’s oil production has decreased from 3.4 MMbbl/d in 2004 to 2.4 MMbbl/d today. Photo courtesy of Pemex. onday August 11,, 2014, represented historic mo- ation was not sustainable; a steep decrease in oil prices over ment for Mexico: President Enrique Peña Nieto, the second half of 2014 has only helped the cause of those M who brought the Institutional Revolutionary Par- advocating for the reform. “What closes the circle of the re- ty (PRI) back into power in 2012, signed the Energy Reform form is that, although the Mexican state will no longer keep bill after the legislative powers approved the secondary laws 100% of the oil income, total revenues from the hydrocar- that will develop the new framework. bons sector will increase because production volumes will be By the end of October, the details of the 25 sets of rules higher,” explained Fluvio César Ruiz Alarcón, independent transforming the country’s model for the oil and gas and board member of Pemex. electricity sectors had already been published by the Mexi- The expectation is to reach 3 MMbbl/d by 2018, al- can administration. The process is developing at quite a fast though Ruiz Alarcón believes that timing to be overambi- pace considering that this is landmark reform that involves tious: “To add production to a 76-year-old structure will constitutional change and ends the 76-year monopoly in ex- take longer,” he said. ploration, production, processing and distribution of hydro- The fall in production has been unrelenting, despite Pe- carbons of the national oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos mex’s rising expenditures on exploration and production. (Pemex). The total E&P budget has actually doubled over the last A look at official investment and production figures decade, from $11.7 billion in 2004 to $23 billion in 2014. helps to explain the bold move in a country where the state’s The plan to stabilize production at around 3 MMbbl/d, and exclusivity over the oil and gas resources was considered even push it to 3.5 MMbbl/d by 2025, will have several legs: sacred. Mexico’s oil output has been declining continually On one side, large investments in Mexico’s deepwater hy- since its peak in 2004, when it reached 3.4 million barrels drocarbon potential, where major international firms are daily (MMbbl/d); by mid-2014, it was below 2.4 MMbbl/d. expected to partner with Pemex (companies like Eni, Pa- Also, from an energy self-sufficiency standpoint, Mexico cific Rubiales and Kufpec have already signed MoUs with has increased its gasoline and natural gas imports over the Pemex in different areas of the E&P business); the develop- past decade, a trend accelerated by the shale gas develop- ment of challenging fields onshore, such as Chicontepec, ment in the U.S., so that in 2013, Mexico imported 30% of and unconventional plays such as the continuation of the its natural gas needs and 49% of the gasoline consumed in the country. This report was prepared by Alfonso To support their budgets, the different governments Tejerina, Irina Negoita, Josie Perez, Amelia Salutz, were able to offset the declining production with the ris- Angela Harmantas, Gabrielle Morin and Bryce ing price of oil. The Mexican Crude Export Mix went from Stevenson of Global Business Reports. For more $31 per barrel in 2004 to $103 in 2012, according to the information contact [email protected]. National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH). Yet, this situ- January 2015 - OilandGasInvestor.com M-3 Eagle Ford shale, probably by foreign Moreover, independents still have a entrants; and the introduction of new considerable amount of drilling inven- technologies to enhance recovery tory in the U.S.” in Pemex’s traditional shallow-water assets. People shortages woes “The fact that there was a lot of The expectation with the reform is oil in shallower waters has stopped that overall E&P investment in the Pemex from doing more in the past. country could reach $60 billion an- Deepwater will probably be the first nually. However, one big question target for international companies,” arises: Companies may have the mon- affirmed Eckhard Hinrichsen, country ey to invest, but it is not certain that manager and country chair at DNV they will have the people. Trebling GL, a global classification and certifi- overall expenditures will not be pos- cation company that has been work- sible without the relevant experts, of ing on risk assessment projects for Pe- which there is a shortage in virtually mex’s deepwater wells. every oil and gas jurisdiction. “It will “The deepwater areas in the Gulf be difficult to uproot talent in Calgary, of Mexico are the new geological fron- Houston or London, where there is full tier. Pemex is just starting to acquire employment. To get someone to leave knowledge there. With the drilling a very good position to do a contract activity so far we know there is great job in Mexico is going to be expensive. potential, but we are barely starting to People have options throughout the do a thorough study,” said Ruiz Alar- energy industry today,” said Bruce Pe- cón of Pemex. terson, managing director in Houston With regard to shale resources, for Korn Ferry, a recruitment specialist. these will take longer to be developed, “Technical roles like geophysicists, says Frederick Lawrence, vice presi- vice-presidents of engineering and the dent of economics and international like will probably come from outside of affairs at the Independent Petroleum Mexico, because the people with those Association of America (IPAA): “At skills today are in Pemex. It is probably this juncture, it will most likely be the not in many companies’ best interests majors, large independents and ser- to try to pool people out of Pemex. In vice companies that will be early en- fact, I do not know if the executives of trants, because they have the scale and Pemex would want to leave anyway,” the offshore deepwater experience. added Rich Russo, global knowledge The natural gas and shale projects on- manager, Korn Ferry. shore pose more challenges (especially Adding production also means to smaller independents) in terms of much better recoveries are required infrastructure, water, surface issues, from Pemex’s maturing shallow- geology and most especially, security. water fields. The case of Cantarell is A more competitive upstream sector will benefit Mexico’s industrial development. Photo: Morelos petrochemical complex, courtesy of Pemex. M-4 January 2015 - OilandGasInvestor.com “Pemex is not being exposed to the whole gamut of technologies that can satisfy its needs.” –Arturo Henríquez paradigmatic: one of the largest oil- an engineering and project manage- fields worldwide by accumulated out- ment firm. put, its production has fallen sharply from 2.1 MMbbl/d in 2004 to just Modernizing Pemex’s 353,000 bbl/d by mid-2014. There- procurement processes fore, Cantarell is no longer Pemex’s While opening the market to new en- Arturo Henríquez, chief procurement flagship asset; Ku-Maloob-Zaap is trants will certainly be a sea change to officer, Pemex. the field that yields more produc- Mexico’s energy industry, one of the tion, with an average of 863,000 bar- aspects of the reform is providing Pe- ties that do not give incentives for risk- rels daily during 2013. “Mexico has a mex with the much-needed autonomy taking and good decisions; the lowest- lot of shallow-water oil that has not to take long-term, strategic decisions. cost option is always the one that is been produced efficiently, with many The state company has traditionally going to be less questioned,” said Ar- wells that can be tied back to shallow- been “hostage” to the different govern- turo Henríquez, chief procurement of- water platforms. There are moderately ments that have squeezed it for rev- ficer of Pemex. expensive techniques to drill deepwa- enue, while its investment decisions The result of all of the checks ter wells that they may not be familiar have been thoroughly scrutinized. and balances in place to curb corrup- with. In Cantarell, there are second- “One problem with being a govern- tion and obtain the lowest prices has ary and tertiary techniques that could ment agency is that we are government been a cumbersome, slow and ex- improve recovery,” said Edward Her- employees. We adhere to laws that tremely competitive bidding process. nandez, vice president of hydrocarbons private companies do not. We have One key change in procurement is for Latin America at WorleyParsons, inspection efforts by transparency enti- the unification of all Pemex’s supply continues on p.7 Positioned for Success The right people, assets & technology to support shallow and deepwater projects in Mexico • Exemplary safety standards • Project delivery with the highest levels of integrity • Cost-effective suite of EPCI services • Proven fabrication facility in Mexico • Global network of specialist engineering offices • Fleet of dynamically positioned installation vessels Learn more about our recent projects in Mexico www.mcdermott.com/projects Altamira: (52) 833.260.6100 | Ciudad de México Tel: (52) 55.1102.1260 Houston: (1) 281.870.5000 | [email protected] © 2014 McDermott International, Inc. All rights reserved JanuaryMDR_Altamira_GBR_Nov_2014.indd 2015 - OilandGasInvestor.com 1 11/19/14 9:57M-5 AM MEXICO OIL AND GAS “We have 10 projects in which we want to sign joint ventures” Interview with Gustavo Hernández, Director, Pemex Exploration and Production (PEP) What are the main changes that the en- are 10 fields that we have identified im- ergy reform is bringing about for PEP? mediately and where we can find an alli- The changes are mostly related to op- ance.