RETAIL MARKET & GAP ANALYSIS RESOURCEFUL SPIRIT GROWING OPPORTUNITY Grande Prairie is a vibrant, burgeoning retail destination providing regional shopping for residents of Northwestern Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia. PREPARED FOR: THE CITY OF GRANDE PRAIRIE PREPARED BY: CUSHING TERRELL ARCHITECTURE INC. APRIL 2014 | Retail Market & Gap Analysis - City of Grande Prairie, Alberta RETAILMarket & Gap Analysis City of Grande Prairie Alberta PO Box 32024 | Langley, B.C. Canada | V1M 2M3 | 604.888.6680 p | www.CushingTerrell.com Retail Market & Gap Analysis - City of Grande Prairie, Alberta | Table of CONTENTS PREFACE .................................................................................... i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................... ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..............................................1 5.0 RETAIL DEMAND & GAP ANALYSIS ...........43 1.1 Scope of Study & Project Background ..............................1 5.1 Introduction ..............................................................................43 1.2 Report Structure ........................................................................1 5.2 Retail Floorspace Demand by Trade Area .....................43 1.3 Sources of Information ...........................................................3 5.3 Retail Gap Analysis Quantification ...................................49 2.0 LOCATION & CONTEXT ..................................4 5.4 Retail Inflow & Outflow.........................................................49 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................4 2.2 Regional Context ......................................................................4 6.0 CONSUMER INTERCEPT SURVEY ...............53 2.3 Municipal Development Plan Context .............................4 6.1 Introduction ..............................................................................53 2.4 Vacant Land Use Context .......................................................7 6.2 Respondent Residence .........................................................53 2.5 Transportation Context ..........................................................7 6.3 Preferred Shopping Locations ...........................................53 2.6 Development & Permit Data ................................................9 6.4 Likes & Dislikes of Retail in Grande Prairie .....................57 2.7 Summary & Implications ......................................................11 6.5 Desired Shops & Services in Grande Prairie ..................61 6.6 All Respondent Spending vs. Importance ....................67 3.0 RETAIL TRADE AREA PROFILE ....................13 3.1 Introduction ..............................................................................13 6.7 Respondent Cross-Tabulations of Spending vs. ............. Importance ................................................................................67 3.2 Population Projections .........................................................16 6.8 Summary & Implications ......................................................73 3.3 Age Profile..................................................................................19 3.4 Income Profile ..........................................................................21 8.0 CONCLUSION ................................................75 3.5 Retail Spending Profile .........................................................23 APPENDIX A ...........................................................81 2.6 Summary & Implications ......................................................27 Detailed Retail Inventory ...................................................................... 4.0 RETAIL MARKET SUPPLY .............................29 APPENDIX B ...........................................................92 4.1 Introduction ..............................................................................29 Consumer Survey Open-Ended Retail Responses ...................... 4.2 Grande Prairie Retail Market Snapshot...........................29 APPENDIX C .......................................................... 96 4.3 Retail Developments .............................................................31 Consumer Intercept Survey Full Results ......................................... 4.4 Citywide Retail Inventory ....................................................33 4.5 Retail Inventory by Sector ...................................................33 4.6 Retail Inventory by Category ..............................................37 4.7 Retail Space Per Capita .........................................................39 4.8 Summary & Implications ......................................................41 | Retail Market & Gap Analysis - City of Grande Prairie, Alberta TABLE OF CONTENTS (TABLES & FIGURES) TABLES 3.1 Trade Area Population Projections Summary ..............16 4.6 City of Grande Prairie Retail Inventory by Category of 3.2 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown .........................18 Space ........................................................................................... 40 3.3 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ..................20 5.1 City of Grande Prairie Retail Spending Supply and ....... Demand ......................................................................................50 3.4 Trade Area Retail Spending .................................................22 6.1 Consumer Intercept Survey Respondent Residence of 4.1 City of Grande Prairie Retail Inventory ...........................31 Origin ...........................................................................................52 4.2 Retail Inventory by Category & Sector ...........................35 6.2 Consumer Intercept Survey Heat Map By Postal Code 4.3 Retail Inventory by Sector & Class ....................................39 Forward Sortation Area ....................................................... 54 5.1 City of Grande Prairie Retail Floorspace Demand ..... 44 6.3 What is your Primary Convenience Shopping Centre 56 5.2 PTA (excluding GP) Retail Floorspace Demand .......... 44 6.4 What is your primary reason for choosing a .................... Convenience Shopping Centre .........................................56 5.3 Total PTA (including GP) Retail Floorspace Demand 45 6.5 What is your Primary Comparison Shopping Centre 58 5.4 STA West Retail Floorspace Demand ..............................47 6.6 What is your primary reason for choosing a Comparison 5.5 STA East Retail Floorspace Demand ................................47 Shopping Centre .....................................................................58 5.6 STA North Retail Floorspace Demand ........................... 48 6.7 What do you like most about shopping in Grande ....... 5.7 TOTAL Trade Area Retail Floorspace Demand ............ 48 Prairie ...........................................................................................59 5.8 Retail Inflow & Outflow Estimates ....................................51 6.8 What do you dislike most about shopping in Grande . Prairie ...........................................................................................59 FIGURES 6.9 What new stores/services would increase your .............. 2.1 City of Grande Prairie Regional Context Map ................4 spending in Grande Prairie ................................................ 60 2.2 City of Grande Prairie Vacant Land Use Map .................6 6.10 What Full-Service Restaurants do you want to see in .. 2.3 City of Grande Prairie High Volume Traffic Corridors .8 Grande Prairie ...........................................................................62 2.4 City of Grande Prairie Development & Building Permits 6.11 What Limited Service Restaurant do you want to see in 2008 to 2012 ..............................................................................10 Grande Prairie ...........................................................................63 2.5 City of Grande Prairie Total Development & Building .. 6.12 What retail stores do you want to see in Grande Prairie Permit Value 2008 - 2012 ......................................................10 ....................................................................................................... 64 3.1 City of Grande Prairie Retail Trade Area .........................14 6.13 What types of stores do you want to see in Grande ..... 3.2 Retail Trade Area Population Growth Rates .................16 Prairie .......................................................................................... 64 3.3 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown .........................18 6.14 Spending vs. Importance Rating for ALL Respondents 3.4 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ..................20 ....................................................................................................... 66 3.5 Trade Area Retail Spending Summary ............................20 6.15 % Spending in Grande Prairie by Respondent Origin ... ....................................................................................................... 68 3.6 Trade Area Retail Spending Summary 2013 .................24 3.7 Trade Area Retail Spending by General Category .....24 6.16 Importance rating to increase spending in Grande ...... Prairie by Respondent Origin ............................................ 68 4.1 City of Grande Prairie Retail Projects Inventory and ..... Supply Map................................................................................30